Dems in Trump CD's; Reps in Clinton CD's

[publicunofficial]

From what I remember, there's some more that have been calculated:

Dems:
Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-18)

Reps:
John Katko (NY-24)
Pat Meehan (PA-07)


The rest are mostly guessing at this point. For Dems I expect Ron Kind (WI-03), for Reps I expect Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27), Pete Sessions (TX-32), and probably around half the California delegation (CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49).

[publicunofficial]

I'm really surprised all the CA GOPers survived.

AZ-1 was a pretty strong win for an open seat,  has this district trended Dem at all or something?  Or was the GOP candidate just awful?

Paul Babeu is pretty awful. He was head of a school where there were child abuse allegations. Cruddy candidate.

He also tried to get his former lover deported. Real PoS.


Also, TX-32 is a confirmed Clinton district.

[publicunofficial]

I'm really surprised all the CA GOPers survived.

AZ-1 was a pretty strong win for an open seat,  has this district trended Dem at all or something?  Or was the GOP candidate just awful?

Paul Babeu is pretty awful. He was head of a school where there were child abuse allegations. Cruddy candidate.

He also tried to get his former lover deported. Real PoS.


Also, TX-32 is a confirmed Clinton district.

TEXAS 32! HA I'll believe it when I see it.

For TX-32, I found:

Clinton - 135,281 (48.4%)
Trump - 130,579 (46.7%)
Other - 13,926 (4.9%)

Believe it.

[publicunofficial]

Current List:

D's in Trump Districts:
AZ-01 (O'Halleran)
IA-02 (Loebsack)
MN-01 (Walz)
MN-07 (Peterson)
MN-08 (Nolan)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NJ-05 (Gottheimer)
NV-03 (Rosen)
NY-03 (Suozzi)
NY-18 (Maloney)
PA-17 (Cartwright)
WI-03 (Kind)

R's in Clinton Districts:
AZ-02 (McSally)
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-25 (Knight)
CA-39 (Royce)
CA-45 (Walters)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (Issa)
CO-06 (Coffman)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen)
IL-06 (Roskam)
KS-03 (Yoder)
MN-03 (Paulsen)
NY-24 (Katko)
PA-07 (Meehan)
TX-07 (Culberson)
TX-23 (Hurd)
TX-32 (Sessions)
VA-10 (Comstock)
WA-08 (Reichert)

The only seats I'm not sure about are CT-05 (Etsy) and FL-25 (Diaz-Balart).

[publicunofficial]

"Dems shouldn't target these seats! They should be looking at THESE seats!"

[publicunofficial]

If I were one of those Republicans in California I'd be pissing myself now.  It's always bad to be in the party of a newly elected President during midterms but Trump + California might be the perfect storm for a Republican bloodbath there.

Problem is Hispanic turnout tanking in midterms. The Central Valley seats, in particular, seem to jump 6-7 points to the right every mid-term.

[publicunofficial]

If the Democrats can gain every Clinton/Republican CD in 2018 while defending all incumbents, that's only one seat away from a majority. Of course, that's easier said than done, since a lot of those incumbents are really strong, and a lot of those Clinton voters in those districts didn't really have a problem with the Republican Party as a whole (although that might change depending on what Congress does in the next two years). But I assume there are a bunch of narrow Trump/Republican CDs that can be flipped as well if 2018 is a more Democratic year than 2016. So, while the Republicans are favored to keep the House, they don't have it locked down.

I can think of a few off the bat:
FL-18, GA-6, GA-7, IA-1, IA-3, ME-2, MI-11, MN-2, NJ-2, NJ-3, NY-19, NY-2 (King retires), PA-8,VA-2, WA-3. Some of these lack a bench for Dems, but that didn't seem to matter in a lot of seats at this point in the 2006/2010 cycles.

No I don't see Republicans losing IA-01 or MI-11 for now even in a big wave especially IA-01.

Why not?   They were both within 3-4 points.  MI-11 even trended dem pretty significantly too.

MI-11 only trended Dem a little bit. IA-01 trended Republican I'm pretty sure in 2016.

IA-01 has the same PVI as IA-02.