Dems in Trump CD's; Reps in Clinton CD's

[Young Conservative]

I'm really surprised all the CA GOPers survived.

AZ-1 was a pretty strong win for an open seat,  has this district trended Dem at all or something?  Or was the GOP candidate just awful?

Paul Babeu is pretty awful. He was head of a school where there were child abuse allegations. Cruddy candidate.

He also tried to get his former lover deported. Real PoS.


Also, TX-32 is a confirmed Clinton district.

TEXAS 32! HA I'll believe it when I see it.

[Young Conservative]

Where is the map by congressional district?

[Young Conservative]

I'm shocked that Clinton won John Culberson's District but it did trend towards Obama in 2008. I guess Trump's candidacy kind of fast-paced Culberson's District towards Dems!

How did Clinton win Pete Sessions Congressional District? Pete Sessions is quite Conservative and the district had a sizeable "Republican Lean" in the past.

Well, the statewide margin was almost halved in Texas compared to 2012, even as the national margin fell.  There had to be a massive trend somewhere.

It'll trend back GOP with a nominee like Senator Marco Rubio, especially if the Democrats keep radializing by propogsting Representatives like Keith Ellison.

[Young Conservative]

The 4 Orange County, California seats (39, 45, 48, and 49) need to be the top priority for the DCCC.

No point focusing on those of you lose all your modwestrn seats.

[Young Conservative]

The 4 Orange County, California seats (39, 45, 48, and 49) need to be the top priority for the DCCC.

No point focusing on those of you lose all your modwestrn seats.

Spellcheck is your friend

I agree

Sorry my computer is broken so I have been typing on my phone:( I'm notoriously poor at using smart phones.

[Young Conservative]

The 4 Orange County, California seats (39, 45, 48, and 49) need to be the top priority for the DCCC.

No point focusing on those of you lose all your modwestrn seats.

What else is there to lose?   The three rural Minnesota seats and maybe WI-3?   Beyond that the GOP is pretty much maxed out there.

The final democratic Iowa seat, potential for two seats in michigan, a seat in PA, seats in Wisconsin, and seats in Minnesota. If you lose the seats there, the gains are wiped out.

[Young Conservative]

The 4 Orange County, California seats (39, 45, 48, and 49) need to be the top priority for the DCCC.

No point focusing on those of you lose all your modwestrn seats.

What else is there to lose?   The three rural Minnesota seats and maybe WI-3?   Beyond that the GOP is pretty much maxed out there.

The final democratic Iowa seat, potential for two seats in michigan, a seat in PA, seats in Wisconsin, and seats in Minnesota. If you lose the seats there, the gains are wiped out.

In Michigan?  What seats?  Every seat in that state that Dems hold is a Dem vote sink.

In Wisconsin, the only potential seat in any risk is WI-03.  The other two Dem seats are safe Dem until the cows come home (and probably after that too).  

So after 2016, Democrats' plan of attack isn't to win back areas that were always favorable to Democrats but rather try to pick off areas that have always liked Republicans but are now more diverse?

Glad to see they've learned nothing.

Tom is correct. If you play the long term too prematurely, then the long term event you've been planning for will never happen.
Also, there is a district in Michigan that I saw on the Macomb county website that voted for Clinton by just a few points that had previously been incredibly democratic I believe it was district 9. Also, I'll check the other seas, but you're blasé attitude will only serve to cause scenarios like 2016 to continue. Be concerned, not blissfully ignorant.

[Young Conservative]

So the CD's that Trump won in CA are: 1, 4, 8, 22, 23, 42, 50. All the rest went to Clinton? 46/53, that's definitely historic.

Yes,  but not as noteworthy as the midwestern results.

[Young Conservative]

In the long run the Demographics of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania very much still favor Democrats.   The Urban areas will just grow to be too much to handle at some point or another.  

There's no way you can know that at this point. And growth of urban areas doesn't always favor Democrats, especially when it's a relatively slow growth. IIRC, you also said before the election that NC was already a blue state because of "population growth".

Or, in the case of michigan's Detroit, decline.

[Young Conservative]

How big was the Trump win in Cartwright's seat?  Was it a massive win like the Walz/Nolan/Peterson seats in MN, or was it a bare 1-3% win like most of the others?

Is it confimed that Trump won Cartwright's seat? Eyeballing it, it looks a lot like the Tim Ryan situation.

Remember, Cartwright's seat was only D+4, while Tim Ryan's had a double digit D+ PVI. Trump won Schuylkill County, which is entirely in the district, as well as Carbon County, and made inroads in the Scranton area.

Trump ended losing Ryan's by about 7. It's PVI was +23

[Young Conservative]

Any chance Trump won Peter Defazio's district, Oregon-4?

There's a slight chance; I'm hearing it was clinton by less than 600 votes, which means it's basically tied.