Dems in Trump CD's; Reps in Clinton CD's

[Heisenberg]

For the Michigan seats, MI-05 almost went to Trump, but it was drawn as a vote sink. A more fairly drawn MI-05 would have gone for Trump. MI-09 has a lot of Macomb "Trump Democrats," and almost went GOP in 2010, but I don't think that one is in reach.

[Heisenberg]

For the Michigan seats, MI-05 almost went to Trump, but it was drawn as a vote sink. A more fairly drawn MI-05 would have gone for Trump. MI-09 has a lot of Macomb "Trump Democrats," and almost went GOP in 2010, but I don't think that one is in reach.

MI-09 went 50%-45% Clinton and is much different than Gary Peters old district that you refer to.  The old MI-09 was mostly Oakland county and was held by Republicans for decades before Peters won it in 2008.  That seat was cut up and split between the now Republican MI-08 and MI-11 with only a small part in the current MI-09.

Oops, my bad, you are correct. Peters is a very savvy politician, having survived 2010 in a historically R district, and then he also managed to win a Democratic primary in a heavily Black district in 2012 (with a split in the Black vote). But yes I was correct in that MI-09 was a little closer than normal but still went for Clinton rather comfortably.

[Heisenberg]

How big was the Trump win in Cartwright's seat?  Was it a massive win like the Walz/Nolan/Peterson seats in MN, or was it a bare 1-3% win like most of the others?

Is it confimed that Trump won Cartwright's seat? Eyeballing it, it looks a lot like the Tim Ryan situation.

Remember, Cartwright's seat was only D+4, while Tim Ryan's had a double digit D+ PVI. Trump won Schuylkill County, which is entirely in the district, as well as Carbon County, and made inroads in the Scranton area.