Dems in Trump CD's; Reps in Clinton CD's

[Mr.Phips]

Does anyone have exact numbers for NJ congressional districts? Clearly someone has NJ-5 (I'm personally surprised Trump won the 5th district) but I haven't found results by congressional district anywhere.

I wonder what happened in NJ-2 and NJ-3. Both went for Obama in '08 and '12, but I know South Jersey swung Republican this year to a small degree. Both should be major targets for the Dems in 2018.

Both NJ-02 and NJ-03 were Trump for sure.  NJ-03 was about 51℅-45%.

[Mr.Phips]

The 4 Orange County, California seats (39, 45, 48, and 49) need to be the top priority for the DCCC.

No point focusing on those of you lose all your modwestrn seats.

What else is there to lose?   The three rural Minnesota seats and maybe WI-3?   Beyond that the GOP is pretty much maxed out there.

The final democratic Iowa seat, potential for two seats in michigan, a seat in PA, seats in Wisconsin, and seats in Minnesota. If you lose the seats there, the gains are wiped out.

In Michigan?  What seats?  Every seat in that state that Dems hold is a Dem vote sink.

In Wisconsin, the only potential seat in any risk is WI-03.  The other two Dem seats are safe Dem until the cows come home (and probably after that too). 

[Mr.Phips]

For the Michigan seats, MI-05 almost went to Trump, but it was drawn as a vote sink. A more fairly drawn MI-05 would have gone for Trump. MI-09 has a lot of Macomb "Trump Democrats," and almost went GOP in 2010, but I don't think that one is in reach.

MI-09 went 50%-45% Clinton and is much different than Gary Peters old district that you refer to.  The old MI-09 was mostly Oakland county and was held by Republicans for decades before Peters won it in 2008.  That seat was cut up and split between the now Republican MI-08 and MI-11 with only a small part in the current MI-09.

[Mr.Phips]

How big was the Trump win in Cartwright's seat?  Was it a massive win like the Walz/Nolan/Peterson seats in MN, or was it a bare 1-3% win like most of the others?

Is it confimed that Trump won Cartwright's seat? Eyeballing it, it looks a lot like the Tim Ryan situation.

Remember, Cartwright's seat was only D+4, while Tim Ryan's had a double digit D+ PVI. Trump won Schuylkill County, which is entirely in the district, as well as Carbon County, and made inroads in the Scranton area.

My estimates show Trump up 52%-44% in Cartwright's district.  That margin almost by itself shows why Clinton lost the state.

[Mr.Phips]

How big was the Trump win in Cartwright's seat?  Was it a massive win like the Walz/Nolan/Peterson seats in MN, or was it a bare 1-3% win like most of the others?

Is it confimed that Trump won Cartwright's seat? Eyeballing it, it looks a lot like the Tim Ryan situation.

Remember, Cartwright's seat was only D+4, while Tim Ryan's had a double digit D+ PVI. Trump won Schuylkill County, which is entirely in the district, as well as Carbon County, and made inroads in the Scranton area.

My estimates show Trump up 52%-44% in Cartwright's district.  That margin almost by itself shows why Clinton lost the state.

OK, so count him as gone in 2020 if Trump wins again.  Still, the total Trump Dem exposure is impressively limited.  And if he loses in 2020, the IA-02's and WI-03's of the world could still flip back.

I wouldn't say that.  If that's the case, Illeana Ros-Lehtinen gone in 2020?