Are Iowa and Ohio now red states?

[blacknwhiterose]

No. And Virginia isn't a blue state either.

Virginia has sort of become the new Pennsylvania.  Rural counties deep red, but outweighed by a few big deep blue counties in the eastern part of the state.  The difference is there was room for Republicans to make gains in rural PA and the Pittsburgh metro area to flip Pennsylvania, whereas they've probably already maxed out in rural VA and NOVA is chock-full of lobbyists and government employees.  With Trump being the Republican nominee, it's small wonder they voted for Hillary to maintain the status quo (their jobs).   

[pbrower2a]

One election does not make a trend.

Should Donald Trump or his successor win a landslide in 2020 while Republicans hold the Senate, then most likely the United states of America is a totalitarian police state.

[Young Conservative]

One election does not make a trend.

This isnt just one election...Republicans hold huge majorities in the Ohio legislature as a whole and in the Iowa House. Both have republican governors and majority republican congressional delegations. The last democrat election from Ohio to the senate was elected in a wave democrat year....we will see how this plays in 2018

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I'm actually going to go with yes on Iowa and punt on Ohio. There's a reason that Republicans have won by fairly comfortable margins in the last gubernatorial election and both Senate elections.

Iowa became a red state in my book not when Trump won it but when Joni Ernst won the 2014 Senate seat by nine points and Rod Blum was elected and reelected in the first district.

Democrats likely need to win in two of the four districts to win statewide; up until 2014, those two were the first and second districts, the eastern half of the state. Now, the northeast is gone along with the majority of the formerly-blue upper Mississippi valley (kicked away by the increasing influence of SJWs on the party if you ask me); only the second district in the southeast remains Democratic, and if trends continue, it could follow behind the first district in due time. The third district is competitive on paper, but Democrats haven't been able to win there. The fourth district is extremely conservative.

So if you think Dems are going to win Iowa without winning in the first district, you're saying that they're going to flip the third district and start winning it by a significant margin, or they're going to start running up some eye-popping margins in the second (which is heavily WWC and trending right). I know of no evidence to support either of these conclusions.

Until Democrats take back IA-01 or demographics change in some unforeseen manner, Iowa is gone. Should start out as Leans R until then.

Ohio, on the other hand, is more elastic-looking and has many large/medium cities and college towns where Dems could increase turnout. Yeah, the congressional delegation is heavily Republican, but some of that has to do with gerrymandering. John Kasich's and Rob Portman's big statewide victories this year and in 2014 are testaments to each candidate's individual strength as well as that of the Ohio GOP, but I think the jury is still out when it comes to that state's partisan lean overall. I'd look at Ohio as a toss-up state for 2020 even though Trump won big there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course not, as Trump may be a failed president and they will flip back again in 2020.

[hopper]

One election does not make a trend.

Should Donald Trump or his successor win a landslide in 2020 while Republicans hold the Senate, then most likely the United states of America is a totalitarian police state.

Two elections make a trend!

[hopper]

Do the Republicans saying Iowa and Ohio are now red states (which I don't disagree with) acknowledge that Colorado and Virginia are not blue states?

Colorado? No. Virginia? Probably Yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, but Dems path to victory lies with Pennsylvania and that state is the Keystone State. If they lose that state, then the election is over.

Dems can lose Ohio but Iowa is need to hold the 272 blue wall again in 2020

[MarkD]

One election does not make a trend.

Should Donald Trump or his successor win a landslide in 2020 while Republicans hold the Senate, then most likely the United states of America is a totalitarian police state.

Two elections make a trend!

I don't think even two elections signify a trend.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

No.  Ohio is getting redder at the state level, but will still be close in presidential matches.  Same goes for Iowa, although it's definitely shifting Republican and could become safe GOP at the state and/or presidential level if that trend continues.

[Sir Mohamed]

No, we have to see more elections. You can't compare this to VA, though I would rate that one as light blue at best. We'll see how the 2017 gubernatorial race turns out.

[windjammer]

Of course,
OH is lean rep
IA likely rep
VA lean dem

[I’m not Stu]

Probably not. Before Trump, The Democrat won PA from 1992-2012. If Trump is unpopular, he could lose the in 2020 if he runs for a second term.

[RedVA]

Ohio is coal reliant.  I can see that turning red if Trump brings jobs back.  Remember that a red state is not permanently red (CA was initially red).  Iowa is an odd case.  It usually goes for whoever they want by a landslide.  Given that Ohio gave Obama small winning margins compared to Trump's, if it goes Trump by a bigger margin in 2020 I would think it is red.  Also, we need to take governorships and legislatures into account.

[chronicleiris]

Trump set up a good stepping stone for the Republican Party in Iowa and Ohio. This doesn't mean in the 2018 gubernatorial elections that the Democrats won't be able to have seats or in the 2020 election the Democrats won't be able to take back Ohio and Iowa. But for now, I think Iowa and Ohio lean Republican by decent margins.

[Bojack Horseman]

Ohio voted for the winner for the 16th consecutive time. To write it off as a permanent red state is foolish.

[Mr. Smith]

Ohio voted for the winner for the 16th consecutive time. To write it off as a permanent red state is foolish.

Still didn't give it to JFK.

Oh, and Missouri also had a stellar record, then Obama showed up. What's to say this isn't just the beginning of that type of thing?

Also, Nevada and Ohio both have been consistent since 1912, and in this case Nevada was closer, even if it picked the loser. Usually both are roughly at the same point on balance.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If Trumpian xenophobic 'America First' faux anti Wall Street populism is the new normal, then yes Ohio is a red state. Trumpian anti free trade and anti NAFTA/TPP rhetoric is a very popular position to take in Ohio and the Rust Belt as a whole. The rest of the Rust Belt will be terrifyingly competitive for the Democrats.

If Trumpianism ends with Trump after he leaves office in 2021 or 2025, then Ohio will go back to it's swing state tossup status. The Upper Midwestern part of the Rust Belt and PA will go  back being Democratic leaning swing states. If Lyin' Ted had won the primary in 2016, or if any 'Freedom Caucus' candidate wins they will get obliterated in the rust belt.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio took a massive swing from Carter to Reagan, but came back for Clinton.

Could we now be a "red state"? Maybe. But Ohio's elasticity has long favored Republicans over Democrats to the point where I would argue that even as a purple state, Ohio's always been Lean R. Obscene gerrymandering doesn't help.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems need have 266 electors and the likely nominee is Cory Booker or Martin O'Malley.  Running with a Steve Bullock.

Dems only need six more electors to cross the 270 mark.  Iowa and Ohio and Virginia will get them there in 2020, but VA and Iowa the fastest because both seats are up in 2020 and are battlegrounds for the senate Ernst and Warner.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bringing this to light now because a majority of people now believe Iowa will be more competitive than Ohio after 2018 midterms. That was not the case right after the 2016 election.

There are some people that hit the nail on the head more than 2 years ago.

[Grassroots]

I still believe that Iowa is much more R than Ohio and will continue to be so at the presidential level.

[DaWN]

Probably, yes. But unlike the Obama years, AZ, GA and probably TX are now swing states instead. Coalitions change, states change.

[Xing]

Iowa may be more "red" than "purple" at this point, but I don't think the 2018 results support the idea of it being much "redder" than Ohio. There was no Senate race, so we don't have a good point of comparison there, but Republicans won OH-GOV by more than IA-GOV, and IA-GOV technically did have an incumbent™. They're both probably only winnable in a very good year for Democrats, but I think it would take a larger wave, and, more importantly, and economic crisis of some kind for Democrats to win Ohio back.

[cvparty]

ohio has always been a red state, or at least pink. it's just more so now than ever