Bill de Blasio 2020?

[Suburbia]

Would the New York City mayor be a good dark horse Democratic presidential contender if he wins reelection in 2017 and runs for president in 2020? Can he beat Donald Trump?

[Mr. Morden]

I don't know if he'd be any better than anyone else in terms of electability in the GE, but I do think he's underrated in terms of likelihood to run and as someone who could be competitive in the fight for the nomination.  Let's not forget that he made a visit to Iowa early last year, which sparked a brief round of speculation about whether he was planning to run in the '16 primary against Hillary Clinton:

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-does-bill-de-blasio-want-in-2016-2015-4

Of course, he didn't run in '16, but the Iowa trip suggests that maybe he has some presidential ambition, so maybe he'll run.

[sg0508]

Would the New York City mayor be a good dark horse Democratic presidential contender if he wins reelection in 2017 and runs for president in 2020? Can he beat Donald Trump?

What would possibly make you even ask this question considering it's very possible he loses his own Primary next year?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

De Blasio would be a godawful candidate.

[Lief 🗽]

lol

[Devout Centrist]

NO

[Lincoln Republican]

No.

The accidental New York City Mayor who the New York City Police turned their backs on would be a joke candidate.

Had Anthony Weiner had any decency, he would have been Mayor and de Blasio would still be living in relative obscurity.

[Figueira]

I like him, but no. Not the Mayor of New York.

[Tintrlvr]

God, no. He'd be awful in the primaries and the general. Can you see him winning a primary in any of IA, NH, NV or SC? (Okay, maybe SC off the black vote if no black candidates ran.) He's disastrous at campaigning and only won his first election because of an issue as stupid as Central Park horse carriages. He's not even a sure thing to be reelected as mayor right now (though I think it's more likely than not).

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

DeBlasio is likely to win next year.  It's not a cinch, but he's got a solid constituency.

If DeBlasio lost his primary to a more moderate Democrat, he could do the John Lindsay thing and win as the candidate of a minor party.  This would, in no way, diminish DeBlasio's image as a Democrat, and would actually make him a leading candidate for President. 

His main competition would be from NY Governor Andrew Cuomo.  Cuomo is no cinch for a third term, and he'd be in a weakened position if he ran for President as a non-incumbent.  Cuomo's intra-party rivalry might be something Cuomo would win, governmentally, but lose politically (Democratic Primary votes in NY, standing with the left).  Unless Al Gore ran in 2020 (not a silly idea, btw) the Democrats are hard up for a candidate with gravitas, and DeBlasio would have as much as any number of folks the Democrats might put up.

If nominated, DeBlasio would stand a 50-50 chance of losing somewhere between Dukakis and Goldwater.  He'd be creamed.  I could actually see a scenario where he'd even lose NY to Trump and carry only DC.  He'd be terrible.  But the Democrats might not figure this out until after he's nominated.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I would vote for him in a second if he became the nominee! I'm not optimistic that whites like him enough unfortunately.

[Pericles]

DeBlasio is likely to win next year.  It's not a cinch, but he's got a solid constituency.

If DeBlasio lost his primary to a more moderate Democrat, he could do the John Lindsay thing and win as the candidate of a minor party.  This would, in no way, diminish DeBlasio's image as a Democrat, and would actually make him a leading candidate for President. 

His main competition would be from NY Governor Andrew Cuomo.  Cuomo is no cinch for a third term, and he'd be in a weakened position if he ran for President as a non-incumbent.  Cuomo's intra-party rivalry might be something Cuomo would win, governmentally, but lose politically (Democratic Primary votes in NY, standing with the left).  Unless Al Gore ran in 2020 (not a silly idea, btw) the Democrats are hard up for a candidate with gravitas, and DeBlasio would have as much as any number of folks the Democrats might put up.

If nominated, DeBlasio would stand a 50-50 chance of losing somewhere between Dukakis and Goldwater.  He'd be creamed.  I could actually see a scenario where he'd even lose NY to Trump and carry only DC.  He'd be terrible.  But the Democrats might not figure this out until after he's nominated.

I think DeBlasio would lose to Trump. However, a 1984-style landslide is not happening in such a polarized environment, and the Democrats are guaranteed nearly 150 electoral votes, probably more. And Trump managed to win despite his many weaknesses. So I doubt a landslide would happen.

[Maxwell]

DeBlasio is kind of a joke in New York, right?

[Beet]

Unless gets more than a 47% approval rating in NYC (still possible), it's not likely. It's hard to see a liberal NYC mayor being elected nationally. TBH, I was afraid he would primary Hillary in 2015. If not for Sanders, he could have filled that progressive void and been formidable. Unlike Sanders, he knew how to win minority votes. But he passed up his chance.

[Suburbia]

No.

The accidental New York City Mayor who the New York City Police turned their backs on would be a joke candidate.

Had Anthony Weiner had any decency, he would have been Mayor and de Blasio would still be living in relative obscurity.

Weiner, Quinn, or Thompson would have won the nomination and the mayoralty.

[Suburbia]

DeBlasio is kind of a joke in New York, right?

He could win South Carolina, especially with black voters.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

DeBlasio is likely to win next year.  It's not a cinch, but he's got a solid constituency.

If DeBlasio lost his primary to a more moderate Democrat, he could do the John Lindsay thing and win as the candidate of a minor party.  This would, in no way, diminish DeBlasio's image as a Democrat, and would actually make him a leading candidate for President. 

His main competition would be from NY Governor Andrew Cuomo.  Cuomo is no cinch for a third term, and he'd be in a weakened position if he ran for President as a non-incumbent.  Cuomo's intra-party rivalry might be something Cuomo would win, governmentally, but lose politically (Democratic Primary votes in NY, standing with the left).  Unless Al Gore ran in 2020 (not a silly idea, btw) the Democrats are hard up for a candidate with gravitas, and DeBlasio would have as much as any number of folks the Democrats might put up.

If nominated, DeBlasio would stand a 50-50 chance of losing somewhere between Dukakis and Goldwater.  He'd be creamed.  I could actually see a scenario where he'd even lose NY to Trump and carry only DC.  He'd be terrible.  But the Democrats might not figure this out until after he's nominated.

I think DeBlasio would lose to Trump. However, a 1984-style landslide is not happening in such a polarized environment, and the Democrats are guaranteed nearly 150 electoral votes, probably more. And Trump managed to win despite his many weaknesses. So I doubt a landslide would happen.

DeBlasio is the kind of candidate that would unpolarize huge swaths of the electorate.

[lisathegreek]

I actually can't stand him. He talks out of both sides of his mouth and seems to have no principles whatsoever.

Which would probably make him a terrific candidate!

[Famous Mortimer]

Imagine if Obama was White. That's Bill de Blasio.

[YaBoyNY]

DeBlasio is kind of a joke in New York, right?

Yeah.

I don't understand the obsession people have with assuming NYC mayors are going to be the next major presidential candidates.

[Shadows]

DeBlasio is likely to win next year.  It's not a cinch, but he's got a solid constituency.

If DeBlasio lost his primary to a more moderate Democrat, he could do the John Lindsay thing and win as the candidate of a minor party.  This would, in no way, diminish DeBlasio's image as a Democrat, and would actually make him a leading candidate for President. 

His main competition would be from NY Governor Andrew Cuomo.  Cuomo is no cinch for a third term, and he'd be in a weakened position if he ran for President as a non-incumbent.  Cuomo's intra-party rivalry might be something Cuomo would win, governmentally, but lose politically (Democratic Primary votes in NY, standing with the left).  Unless Al Gore ran in 2020 (not a silly idea, btw) the Democrats are hard up for a candidate with gravitas, and DeBlasio would have as much as any number of folks the Democrats might put up.

If nominated, DeBlasio would stand a 50-50 chance of losing somewhere between Dukakis and Goldwater.  He'd be creamed.  I could actually see a scenario where he'd even lose NY to Trump and carry only DC.  He'd be terrible.  But the Democrats might not figure this out until after he's nominated.

I think DeBlasio would lose to Trump. However, a 1984-style landslide is not happening in such a polarized environment, and the Democrats are guaranteed nearly 150 electoral votes, probably more. And Trump managed to win despite his many weaknesses. So I doubt a landslide would happen.

DeBlasio is the kind of candidate that would unpolarize huge swaths of the electorate.

That is ridiculous. If Trump can't polarize the election, no1 can. The days of landslides are over unless the other side is incredibly strong with a huge positive message.

De Blasio would do better than Hillary who was the most unelectable Dem IMO in the last century. Any decent candidate would likely beat Trump. If Trump has a good presidency atleast De Blasio will make it close!

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

DeBlasio is likely to win next year.  It's not a cinch, but he's got a solid constituency.

If DeBlasio lost his primary to a more moderate Democrat, he could do the John Lindsay thing and win as the candidate of a minor party.  This would, in no way, diminish DeBlasio's image as a Democrat, and would actually make him a leading candidate for President. 

His main competition would be from NY Governor Andrew Cuomo.  Cuomo is no cinch for a third term, and he'd be in a weakened position if he ran for President as a non-incumbent.  Cuomo's intra-party rivalry might be something Cuomo would win, governmentally, but lose politically (Democratic Primary votes in NY, standing with the left).  Unless Al Gore ran in 2020 (not a silly idea, btw) the Democrats are hard up for a candidate with gravitas, and DeBlasio would have as much as any number of folks the Democrats might put up.

If nominated, DeBlasio would stand a 50-50 chance of losing somewhere between Dukakis and Goldwater.  He'd be creamed.  I could actually see a scenario where he'd even lose NY to Trump and carry only DC.  He'd be terrible.  But the Democrats might not figure this out until after he's nominated.

I think DeBlasio would lose to Trump. However, a 1984-style landslide is not happening in such a polarized environment, and the Democrats are guaranteed nearly 150 electoral votes, probably more. And Trump managed to win despite his many weaknesses. So I doubt a landslide would happen.

DeBlasio is the kind of candidate that would unpolarize huge swaths of the electorate.

That is ridiculous. If Trump can't polarize the election, no1 can. The days of landslides are over unless the other side is incredibly strong with a huge positive message.

De Blasio would do better than Hillary who was the most unelectable Dem IMO in the last century. Any decent candidate would likely beat Trump. If Trump has a good presidency atleast De Blasio will make it close!

DeBlasio is the new John Lindsay.  Lindsay was elected as a Liberal Republican in 1965; he won the votes of minorities and the wealthiest in the city, and was a minority Mayor.  He defeated Democrat Abe Beame (a lackluster City Comptroller who was viewed as more conservative than Lindsay) and Wiliam F. Buckley (yes, THAT William F. Buckley), who ran as the nominee of New York's Conservative Party.  (Lindsay was the nominee of NY's Liberal Party as well as the GOP nominee.)

Lindsay was considered Presidential material from the day he was elected; he and his type would "revitalize" the GOP.  He was on Nixon's short list in 1968.  What he wasn't was popular at home.  He received high marks from the wealthy Manhattanites and poor minorities, but the white working class of NYC (and especially the outer boroughs) abhorred him.  He became so unpopular with the white working class of NYC, he lost the 1969 GOP primary, and won re-election as the Liberal Party's nominee, when the Democrats nominated City Comptroller Mario Procaccino, their most conservative candidate and a guy who was a poor campaigner, gaffe prone as all get-out.

Despite this, Lindsay was considered Presidential material for 1972.  He switched to the Democratic Party, in part to run for President, but in part because he had been pushed out of the GOP.  His second term was no better than his first, and after a lackluster Presidential campaign that bombed royally, announced that he would not run for a third term.  (The crew of candidates that ran in 1973 were so unimpressive that it is not impossible that Lindsay could have eked out a victory, but he wouldn't have been favored.)  Except for an unsuccessful run for the Senate in 1980 (he lost the primary to Liz Holtzman, finishing 3rd of 4), he was done in politics.  He didn't try to run for Governor in 1974, and wouldn't have made it if he had; the Democrats would not have allowed Lindsay to win a primary and blow an easy win.

Lindsay's legacy was the wedge he drove between NY's white working class and white middle class and the Democratic Party that most of them were registered to vote as, most of them identified with, and most of them SHOULD have been best represented by.  His policies were responsible in accelerating the flight of the middle class to the suburbs, and diminishing the status of NYC as a city with a viable middle class.  Bill DeBlasio is following in those footsteps.  The difference is that the white middle class electorate in NYC is smaller than it was in 1973.  And the Democratic Party has changed.  Bill DeBlasio is a far more viable candidate for the Democratic Presidential nomination than John Lindsay was in 1972.  That doesn't mean that he's a viable candidate nationally.  Donald Trump would chew him up and spit him out, causing a slew of folks to vote GOP for President for the first time in their lives.

[kyc0705]

Even his name sounds boring.

[Simfan34]

Tell him to worry about 2017 first! He'll probably win by for lack of a strong enough opponent, but what achievements could he possibly point to? Guiliani and Bloomberg both had strong records as mayor of a city of 8 million people to run off of. De Blasio does not have anything. The progressives merely tolerate him. The conservatives loathe him.

Given his clear propensity for "progressive" self-marketing at a global level, though, I wouldn't rule it out. But it'd be a joke candidacy.

[Suburbia]

Tell him to worry about 2017 first! He'll probably win by for lack of a strong enough opponent, but what achievements could he possibly point to? Guiliani and Bloomberg both had strong records as mayor of a city of 8 million people to run off of. De Blasio does not have anything. The progressives merely tolerate him. The conservatives loathe him.

Given his clear propensity for "progressive" self-marketing at a global level, though, I wouldn't rule it out. But it'd a joke candidacy.

Universal pre-K. A tale of two Americas, just like how it is a tale of two New Yorks.