The United States of Gerontocracy

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Age of some possible candidates by 2020:

Donald Trump: 74
John Kasich: 68

Bernie Sanders: 79
Joe Biden: 78
Elizabeth Warren: 71
Hillary Clinton: 73
Sherrod Brown: 68
Al Franken: 69


Just saying.

[Devout Centrist]

Compare that to the Politburo in 1985.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Compare that to the Politburo in 1985.

Baby steps.

[LLR]

Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, JBE. You're cherry-picking, don't do that, that's bad, etc.

[Lief 🗽]

Hopefully Democrats do not settle for an old in 2020.

Cory Booker: 47
Gillibrand: 49
Duckworth: 48
Harris: 52
Klobuchar: 56
Cuomo: 58
Murphy: 43
West: 39

[Indy Texas]

Compare that to the Politburo in 1985.

Does that mean Trump is Andropov?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hopefully Democrats do not settle for an old in 2020.

Cory Booker: 47
Gillibrand: 49
Duckworth: 48
Harris: 52
Klobuchar: 56
Cuomo: 58
Murphy: 43
West: 39

No. Please don't include him.

[ag]

Compare that to the Politburo in 1985.

Baby steps.

Not that old actually, in comparison. As of Jan. 1, 1985 (it would become much younger after Gorbachev's accession later that year)

Grishin 70
Kunaev 72
Shcherbitsky 66
Gromyko 75
Chernenko 73
Romanov 61
Tikhonov 79
Gorbachev 53
Aliev 61
Vorotnikov 58
Solomentsev 71

A better one would be Jan 1, 1982 - the beginning of Brezhnev's last year

Suslov 79
Brezhnev 75
Kirilenko 75
Pelshe 82
Grishin 67
Kunaev 69
Shcherbitsky 63
Andropov 67
Gromyko 72
Romanov 58
Ustinov 73
Chernenko 70
Tikhonov 76
Gorbachev 50

[bagelman]

Average is 69.7 for '82 and drops to 67.2 (-2.5) for '85.

GM's list averages out to 72.5, but it includes Clinton who's not running in 2020.

Lief's list is only 49.1 as is his point, excluding Cuomo and that sociopathic freak on the bottom.

Here's my combined list:

GOP:

Donald Trump 74
John Kasich 68
Mike Pence 61
Ted Cruz 49

Dems:

Bernie Sanders: 79
Joe Biden: 78
Elizabeth Warren: 71
Sherrod Brown: 68
Al Franken: 69
Cory Booker: 47
Gillibrand: 49
Duckworth: 48
Harris: 52
Klobuchar: 56

(Murphy's not going anywhere)

The average age of this group is 62.1 rounded up.

Youth is not automatically good though, as evidenced by West being younger than anyone else.

[ag]

I just thought of moving this another 5 years earlier, with some of the old dinosaurs, like Podgorny, still around.

So, Jan 1, 1977 does not look that much different, actually.

Suslov 74
Brezhnev 70
Kosygin 72
Podgorny 73
Kirilenko 70
Mazurov 62
Pelshe 77
Grishin 62
Kulakov 58
Kunaev 64
Shcherbitsky 58
Andropov 62
Gromyko 67
Romanov 53
Ustinov 68

[ag]

And, for fun, Politburo the day before Khrushchov's dismissal: October 13, 1964

Mikoyan 69
Khrushchov 71
Suslov 61
Brezhnev 57
Kozlov 56
Shvernik 76
Kosygin 60
Podgorny 61
Polyansky 46
Voronov 54
Kirilenko 58

Actually, not at all ancient

[ag]

And, for comparison, the Polutbury right before the "anti-party group" got purged.  June 28, 1957.

Update: forgot old Klim

Voroshilov 76
Molotov 67
Kaganovich 63
Mikoyan 61
Khrushchov 63
Malenkov 54
Bulganin 62
Pervukhin 62
Saburov 57
Kirichenko 49
Suslov 54

2 days later it would become a lot younger, especially if you ignore the old fossil Kuusinen.

Voroshilov 76
Mikoyan 61
Khrushchov 63
Bulganin 62 (he was the one coup victim allowed to stay on for another year)
Kirichenko 49
Suslov 54
Aristov 53
Belyaev 54
Brezhnev 50
Zhukov 60 (only for 6 months, before Khrushchov got nervous and kicked him out)
Ignatov 56
Kozlov 48
Kuusinen 75
Furtseva 46
Shvernik 69

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Now, here are totally old candidates:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Iranian_Supreme_Leader_election

[bagelman]

1977: 66
1964: 60.8
1957 (6/30): 57.1
1957 (6/28): 59.2

[ag]

Can't stop. Stalin´s last Politburo was a joke - he had expanded it a lot a few months before he died, puting in a lot of non-entities (some of whom would later make it, but most were just one-day wonders). So, to look for Stalin´s taste, here is the Politburo on Jan 1, 1952

Stalin 72
Voroshilov 70
Molotov 61
Kaganovich 58
Andreev 56
Khrushchov 57
Beria 52
Malenkov 49
Bulganin 56
Kosygin 47 (first iteration)

Average is 57.8

[PresidentSamTilden]

I just thought of moving this another 5 years earlier, with some of the old dinosaurs, like Podgorny, still around.

So, Jan 1, 1977 does not look that much different, actually.

Suslov 74
Brezhnev 70
Kosygin 72
Podgorny 73
Kirilenko 70
Mazurov 62
Pelshe 77
Grishin 62
Kulakov 58
Kunaev 64
Shcherbitsky 58
Andropov 62
Gromyko 67
Romanov 53
Ustinov 68

There was a Romanov in the politburo? Is that just a coincidence or did they make a comeback? lol

[pbrower2a]

I just thought of moving this another 5 years earlier, with some of the old dinosaurs, like Podgorny, still around.

So, Jan 1, 1977 does not look that much different, actually.

Suslov 74
Brezhnev 70
Kosygin 72
Podgorny 73
Kirilenko 70
Mazurov 62
Pelshe 77
Grishin 62
Kulakov 58
Kunaev 64
Shcherbitsky 58
Andropov 62
Gromyko 67
Romanov 53
Ustinov 68

There was a Romanov in the politburo? Is that just a coincidence or did they make a comeback? lol

Simply a common surname, a patronymic of the common given name "Roman". Any relationship to the Imperial family is unknown.

From Wikipedia:

Grigory Vasilyevich Romanov (Russian: Григорий Васильевич Романов, scientific transliteration: Grigorij Vasil'evič Romanov; 7 February 1923 – 3 June 2008) was a Soviet politician and member of the Politburo and Secretariat of the CPSU. In 1985, he was considered Mikhail Gorbachev's main rival in the succession struggle after the death of Konstantin Chernenko in March 1985.

Grigory Vasilyevich was born in Novgorod Oblast into a Russian peasant family.

A soldier in the Red Army during the Great Patriotic War, Romanov joined the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) in 1944. Romanov graduated from the Leningrad Shipbuilding Institute in 1953, and became a designer in a shipyard. He fulfilled several important posts in the party committee of the enterprise he was working at and later in the Leningrad city and regional party committees. In September 1970 he was elected First Secretary of the Communist Party Committee of the Leningrad Region. In this position he gained a reputation of being a good organizer and well versed in economic matters, winning defense investment for Leningrad. He was elected a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union at the XXIVth congress of the CPSU in 1971. He became a candidate member of the Central Committee's Politburo in 1973 and a full member in 1976. In 1977 he initiated a successful vote to remove Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, Nikolai Podgorny from the Politburo.


In 1983 Romanov attracted the attention of the new General Secretary Yuri Andropov who subsequently brought him to Moscow and helped promote him in June 1983 to the highly prestigious and influential post of a secretary of the Central Committee of the CPSU responsible for industry and the military-industrial complex. During the few remaining months of Andropov's life Romanov was widely seen as one of Andropov's closest collaborators and was an ardent supporter of Andropov's comprehensive program for the reform, renewal and further development of socialism in the Soviet Union and beyond, a fact which stands in sharp contrast to the picture Gorbachev and his associates were later to paint of Romanov as a means of gaining advantage in the power struggles following Andropov's death in February 1984.

Romanov attracted international attention on November 5, 1983, during the height of Operation Able Archer. Grigory Vasilyevich addressed the Kremlin Palace of Congresses in order to commemorate the October Revolution, where he remarked:

"the development of events in the world arena demands from us the highest vigilance, restraint, firmness and unremitting attention to the strengthening of the country's defense capability... Perhaps never before in the postwar decades has the situation in the world arena been as tense as it is now... Comrades! the international situation at present is white hot, thoroughly white hot." Western analysts, unaware of the Exercise that was taking place and therefore uncertain as to why Romanov would describe the situation as "white hot", dismissed the remarks as Soviet propaganda.

During Konstantin Chernenko's short time in office as General Secretary in 1984–1985 Romanov already occupied a position clearly inferior to Gorbachev, who had been styled Second Secretary of the Central Committee since February 1984 and acted as chairman of the Politburo, Secretariat and Central Committee in the course of Chernenko's long periods of absence due to his illness.

Gorbachev vs. Romanov

Romanov was the second youngest member of the Politburo after Gorbachev. In the months preceding the death of Konstantin Chernenko in March 1985, Romanov and Gorbachev were commonly regarded to be chief rivals in the succession struggle for the post of General Secretary. Viktor Grishin was also considered a viable candidate.

However, after Chernenko's death Gorbachev emerged with the strongest position to succeed Chernenko. Andrei Gromyko, one of the oldest and widely respected Politburo members, nominated Gorbachev for the position of General Secretary of CPSU, both at the March 11 meeting of Politburo and subsequently at the March 1985 Plenum (meeting) of the Central Committee of the CPSU. Neither Romanov nor Grishin mounted a formal challenge to Gorbachev's bid and the votes in favor of Gorbachev, both in the March 11 meeting of Politburo and at the March Plenum, were unanimous.

End of career

Gorbachev quickly moved to oust Grigory Vasilevich following his ascent to become General Secretary. He informed Romanov that he had no future under Gorbachev, and sacked him three months later, in July 1985. Rumors were circulated which claimed that Romanov was involved in corruption, drunken bacchanalias, and orgies; a familiar tale following the fall of Russian leaders.

Romanov subsequently lived as a pensioner in Moscow. For several years he headed the "Association of Leningradians in Moscow".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigory_Romanov

[Mr. Morden]

Here's my combined list:

GOP:

Donald Trump 74
John Kasich 68
Mike Pence 61
Ted Cruz 49

Dems:

Bernie Sanders: 79
Joe Biden: 78
Elizabeth Warren: 71
Sherrod Brown: 68
Al Franken: 69
Cory Booker: 47
Gillibrand: 49
Duckworth: 48
Harris: 52
Klobuchar: 56

You're mixing up their current ages with their ages in 2020.  E.g., Sanders will be 79 in 2020, but Booker will be 51, as he's 47 now.  Gillibrand will be 53, as she's 49 now.  Kamala Harris will be 56 as she's 52 now, etc.

Also, I maintain that Justin Amash is a lot more likely to primary Trump than either Cruz or Kasich.  Amash will only be 40 in 2020.

[ag]

I just thought of moving this another 5 years earlier, with some of the old dinosaurs, like Podgorny, still around.

So, Jan 1, 1977 does not look that much different, actually.

Suslov 74
Brezhnev 70
Kosygin 72
Podgorny 73
Kirilenko 70
Mazurov 62
Pelshe 77
Grishin 62
Kulakov 58
Kunaev 64
Shcherbitsky 58
Andropov 62
Gromyko 67
Romanov 53
Ustinov 68

There was a Romanov in the politburo? Is that just a coincidence or did they make a comeback? lol

Just a coincidence

The (imperial) Romanovs were not of princely blood, so they did not have one of the aristocratic names - a Romanov is no Shuysky, Vorotynsky or even Trubetskoy. In fact, they only adopted the last name a generation before acceding to the throne: Feodor (Filaret) Nikitich Romanov (the father of the first Romanov tsar Mikhail Feodorovich) used as his surname his father's patronimic (really, just his grandfather's name). In previous generations they, pretty much simply used both their paternal and some other ancestral names, with the latter having a form resembling a modern last name. So, it was that Feodor Nikitich's father was Nikita Romanovich Zakharyin-Yuryev, and his father was Roman Yuryevich Zakharyin-Koshkin, and before that there was Yuri Zakharyevich Koshkin-Zakharyin, preceded by Zakhary Ivanovich Koshkin, whose father was Ivan Feodorovich Koshkin, born of Feodor Andreevich Koshka (Cat) whose father, in turn, was Andrei Kobyla (Horse).

Anyway, as boyars (noblemen, though without a title in this case), they got to stick to a last name some generations before most of the other Russians. But, when their turn came, they frequenlty formed the last names based on the same pattern: a son (or grandson) of a Roman became a Romanov. The politburo Romanov was not in any obvious way related to the tsars, but must have had an ancestor named Roman.

[Fuzzy Bear]

As people live longer now, the average age of candidates isn't that out of line with men in their late 50s/early 60s becoming President back in the day.

William Harrison was 68.  James Buchanan was 65.  John Adams was 62.  Harry Truman was 60 (as VP).  Ike was 62. 

People expect their Presidents to be adequately credentialed.  Where we're at right now is something of an anomaly.

[bagelman]

Here's my combined list:

GOP:

Donald Trump 74
John Kasich 68
Mike Pence 61
Ted Cruz 49

Dems:

Bernie Sanders: 79
Joe Biden: 78
Elizabeth Warren: 71
Sherrod Brown: 68
Al Franken: 69
Cory Booker: 47
Gillibrand: 49
Duckworth: 48
Harris: 52
Klobuchar: 56

You're mixing up their current ages with their ages in 2020.  E.g., Sanders will be 79 in 2020, but Booker will be 51, as he's 47 now.  Gillibrand will be 53, as she's 49 now.  Kamala Harris will be 56 as she's 52 now, etc.

Also, I maintain that Justin Amash is a lot more likely to primary Trump than either Cruz or Kasich.  Amash will only be 40 in 2020.

The younger Dem's were just copied from Lief's post. Guess he was trying to prove his point by hook or by crook. And I agree with Averroës that these figures are outclassed in political skill and voter appeal by their elderly peers. (Seriously, Murphy?! Cuomo?!)

Amash hasn't been talked about much around here recently so I didn't think about him.