New Zealand By-elections (next event: Botany [before 8th December 2018])

[Mazda]

Plagiarising the Canadian thread.

Parliamentary by-elections in New Zealand are pretty rare: partly because we have general elections every three years; partly because we've historically had a Parliament of c.120 members, usually much fewer; and partly because for the last 20 years, we've operated under MMP, which means that we only have 71 electorate seats. The last by-election was the Northland battle of 2015, in which NZ First leader and Question Time entertainer Winston Peters came from nowhere to win the seat off National.

The current by-election is in Mount Roskill, an electorate on the Auckland isthmus which very geographically compact. It also has one of the highest foreign-born populations of any electorate: only 49% are NZ-born, and the Asian population is 39%. It's a predominantly working class/lower-middle area, stretching from well-heeled Onehunga in the East to slightly rougher areas in the West and South, with crime rates in the area going through the roof (and legging it down the street).

As you would expect from this write-up, it is a traditionally Labour electorate, with the preceding seat going Labour in 1957 and remaining so up to now, apart from the exciting years of 1990-93, in which a National MP was elected and subsequently jumped between various parties four times in three years. He was not re-elected. The MP since then (and from 1981-1990) was Phil Goff, a successful politician who was rarely out of Cabinet or ShadCab who also managed to be a strong electorate MP and an all-round good egg. He stepped down from Parliament in October when he was elected Mayor of Auckland - as Auckland contains about a quarter of the country's population, this is a considerable step up from living out his days in seemingly-perpetual Opposition.

But in recent years, Mount Roskill has drifted to the right, as immigrant populations become more established. While Phil Goff won the electorate vote in 2014 with 55% of the vote, Labour only won 35% of the Party vote in the seat - meanwhile, National won 42%. It would be fair to say that Mount Roskill isn't so much a Labour seat as a Phil seat.

I'll give a brief run-down of the issues and events of the campaign, but this comes with a health warning - I'm a Labour member and have been pretty closely involved with the campaign on that side.

So Labour are standing Michael Wood, who's been in local government in the area for two terms and is well-practiced at campaigning: in fact, he's stood in every general election since 2008 and the Botany by-election of 2011, and hasn't yet been successful (although he's come close a couple of times). National, meanwhile, are standing Parmjeet Parmar, who is more demographically acceptable for the electorate and is already a List MP - on the plus side for her, this means that she can point to her track record and put "Working For Mount Roskill" on all her election hoardings. Unfortunately for her, that track record is not particularly stellar. She hasn't really made a name for herself and has pissed a lot of people off by trying to preside over Citizenship ceremonies in the electorate - not only is this blatant electioneering, but it is also Not Allowed, because you can only preside if you're an electorate MP or an elected local government personage.

The main issues are crime, housing and transport, with transport being the one both sides are pushing. Labour have proposed fast-tracking a light rail system between the electorate and the CBD, with the potential to extend it to the airport (which is all but inaccessible by public transport at the moment). Parmar's response to this was to propose that we "build more bus stops". The existing bus network will be at capacity in 2020, by the way.

Another major event in the campaign was a debate a few weeks ago, in which Parmar's husband heckled Michael Wood while he was speaking - this included several horrible comments about Michael's wife, and after the debate there was a bit of a fracas between the two. Mr Parmar claimed in the press that he had been manhandled by Michael, but nobody listened to him, and shortly afterwards, the level of pro-Nat online abuse directed at Michael 'mysteriously' reduced. I am saying nothing.

Advance voting started on 21 Nov, and E-day is 3 Dec. We are expecting to win, but we would say that wouldn't we.

[DC Al Fine]

Tell me about this fellow who changed parties four times?

[Mazda]

Tell me about this fellow who changed parties four times?

That was the, er.. incomparable... Gilbert Myles, and it wasn't entirely his fault.

You see, the Labour Government of 1984-1990 was very keen on neoliberalism and privatisation and destroying the welfare state, while National had traditionally been relatively happy to leave all that stuff alone. So Gilbert stood in Roskill in 1990 on a platform of returning NZ to the good old days of being "the only planned economy in the OECD", which was fairly typical in the National Party at that point, and was a major plank of their election campaign.

Unfortunately, when they got into power in 1990, they went even further than Labour had (their economic policy was popularly known as 'Ruthanasia' after their Minister of Finance, Ruth Richardson) and this annoyed a few One Nationers in their ranks, such as Winston Peters and a few others. This was also an era when the pressure to change the electoral system was mounting, which led to a number of opportunistic people starting new Third Parties to take advantage of the multi-party future.

Myles and another MP, Hamish Macintyre, went Independent in 1991. The following year, they established the Liberal Party together in the hope of attracting a few more prominent Nats - they were both first-term backbenchers. This didn't work, because when Winston Peters left the party, he formed his own NZ First outfit, leaving Myles high and dry.

Now, this Liberal Party was not exactly capturing the public imagination, so in 1993, Myles and Macintyre affiliated the Party to the Alliance - a group of vaguely anti-neoliberal parties with a range of political views, from ex-Labour malcontents to Greens to Maori rights activists to Social Credit wackjobs. Myles was not happy at all in this alliance, which was far too left-wing for him, and shortly afterwards he defected again to NZ First, following Winston.

This was just in time for the 1993 election, at which he was never particularly favoured to keep the seat, and all hope was quashed at a debate which took place at a yachting club, where Myles opened with a joke about the advanced ages of the club members. This went down very badly indeed and Myles never regained confidence throughout the campaign, losing by quite a margin to Phil Goff.

Anyway, he was on the NZ First List in 1996 and entered Parliament in 1999 after a resignation from someone above him on the List. Almost immediately, a tape was leaked which revealed that he'd promised to defect from NZ First to the struggling National Party to bolster their minority Government, but people were wise to him now and Peters basically physically threatened him into staying in the Party - at least until the election several months later.

He was investigated for fraud in 2011 and convicted of obstruction of justice, which caused much mirth in the political scene.

So: National->Independent->Liberal->Alliance->NZ First and then an attempted ratting from NZ First back to National.

[Mazda]

In addition to the fracas between the Labour candidate and the husband of the National candidate, news broke this evening that a group of men were hooning around in the National campaign car and accosted a by-stander, shouting "We're Parmjeet's boys!". This resulted in the by-stander having a horseshoe thrown at him, which was subsequently 'lost' by the police.

Suspicion falls on Ms Parmar's nephew, allegedly.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

NZ First sitting this round out?

[Mazda]

NZ First sitting this round out?

Yes, they're saving money for 2017 - and Auckland isn't their strongest region, of course. John Key put about that Winston was only standing aside to help Labour, but that's the first we heard of it.

The Greens are also standing aside, endorsing Labour, and we've had a few Greens doorknocking for us. The minor party candidates this time round are very minor indeed, and the only one with a chance of getting more than a thousand votes is Roshan Nauhria. He's a local businessman who's promising to spend his entire personal fortune on providing free school meals in Mt Roskill, and he's also promising to halve crime within 5 years and a few other things. Not well-costed at all, but he's got some hoarding out, and he's prominent in the Indian community - almost every vote he wins will be a vote denied to National.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Assuming NZ First are the kingmakers next election, are they more likely to prop up Key as PM or will they form some sort of surreal Lab-Green-Winston government? (I assume adding Maori-Mana to that coalition would be, err, too much). Also, is this Gareth Morgan bloke going to be a sub-threshold spoiler, a flame-out or could he enter parliament?

EDIT:

Also, welcome to the forum!

[Mazda]

Assuming NZ First are the kingmakers next election, are they more likely to prop up Key as PM or will they form some sort of surreal Lab-Green-Winston government? (I assume adding Maori-Mana to that coalition would be, err, too much). Also, is this Gareth Morgan bloke going to be a sub-threshold spoiler, a flame-out or could he enter parliament?

EDIT:

Also, welcome to the forum!

Thank you!

It does indeed look as if NZ First will be kingmakers, although I wouldn't rule out a continued Nat-minnows coalition since the election is likely to be held in the Winter (for reasons I'd prefer not to go into). Winston will go with whoever concedes most to his platform and, more importantly, his ego.

Maori are pretty much reduced to Nat stooges now, and I don't think even their emergent deal with Mana will change that. But they are definitely taking all the electorates seriously, and I wouldn't rule out a gain if a candidate has more mana than their Labour opponent. The Maori Party do not canvass at all, though, which probably limits their effectiveness. If Hone Harawira gets back in, there's a possibility that he'd vote confidence and supply with a Labour Government, but there's a lot of Ifs there.

Gareth Morgan will probably make it to the election and no further. He's already utterly disappeared from the news, which is a bad sign for him - the Internet Party and the Conservatives had a couple of stories a week back in 2014, not many of them positive. The question is how much of a spoiler he will constitute, and who he will spoil. My suspicions are 'not much' and 'everyone' for those questions, but  it might be too early in the game.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-11-2016/nzs-feeblest-john-key-parrot-is-on-the-brink-of-a-shellacking-in-mt-roskill/

Not the most unbiased article, but it does have a poll hidden inside.

Also, welcome to the Forum! It's always nice to have someone else interested in NZ's elections.

[Mazda]

Not the most unbiased article, but it does have a poll hidden inside.

Also, welcome to the Forum! It's always nice to have someone else interested in NZ's elections.

The Spinoff is one of the best things in the NZ media world (soon to be nearly as monopolised as the Chinese media). I think Simon's been a bit naughty here, though: we were planning to keep that poll extremely internal in order to prevent voter complacency.

Andrew Little was in the electorate yesterday, along with about 10 MPs and the standard 100+ Saturday volunteers. The only big hitters Parmjeet has had campaigning for her are John Key and Hekia Parata, which shows a lack of confidence in their camp. But we'll see what happens on the day - advance voting looks to be on a broadly similar level to the general election.

[Mazda]

Update: A story has broken in the media about the next person on the National Party list, who will enter Parliament if Parmjeet Parmar (currently a List MP) wins the by-election. This person is a rather extreme sort of Christian, who claims that "Donald Trump has been appointed by God".

Prime Minister John Key defended her, and claimed that this story was only breaking because Labour are panicking about losing the by-election - going on to attempt to lower expectations for his own Party performance.

We ran into the Nat campaign this evening, and there were about twice as many of us as there are of them, so I'm not unduly worried about losing the seat.

Less than 48 hours until polls close.

[Mazda]

Just got back from the party. Much ebullience.

Mount Roskill by-election, 2016

Michael Wood (Labour) - 11170 (66.3%) +10.5%
Parmjeet Parmar (National) - 4652 (27.6%) -4.0%
Roshan Nauhria (People's Party) - 709 (4.2%)
Andrew Leitch (Democrats for Social Credit - 125 (0.7%)
Brandon Stronge (Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party) - 79 (0.5%)
Richard Goode (Not A Party) - 40 (0.2%)
Tua Schuster (Independent) - 32 (0.2%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice result

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Excellent news! What is the People's Party? That's a good result for a group I've never heard of. Is it a one hit wonder for this by-election or are they going to stick around?

[MaxQue]

Excellent news! What is the People's Party? That's a good result for a group I've never heard of. Is it a one hit wonder for this by-election or are they going to stick around?

It's a party for immigrants.

[Mazda]

Excellent news! What is the People's Party? That's a good result for a group I've never heard of. Is it a one hit wonder for this by-election or are they going to stick around?

Party for immigrants, mainly Indians, focusing on crime. The founder-leader, who stood in this by-election, promised to spend his entire MP salary on free school meals for Mt Roskill kids. The sums didn't work, of course.

I have a feeling he'll last, at least until the next election, but after that, it'll disappear due to lack of support and lack of cash. Nauhria has previously been a member of Labour and National, leaving both after being passed over for selection.

[Hifly]

Great that Michael Wood is a committed Anglican.

[Mazda]

Great that Michael Wood is a committed Anglican.

Funny you should say that - I phonebanked an elderly lady during the campaign who asked me whether Michael had 'Christian values'. My explanation that he was a churchgoing Anglican seemed to disappoint her, because "all the most evil people in the world go to Church - I'm asking whether he has Christian values."

At that point, I put her on speakerphone. The office was filled with hilarity for the next five minutes.

[DL]

I see John Key as quit as PM...what will that mean for the next New Zealand general election?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz//nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11762554

Shearer will be resigning his Mt Albert seat for a UN post in South Sudan. Not sure if there will be a by-election or an early general election.

[Mazda]

Bill English, who was sworn in as PM today, has ruled out an early election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This means that Shearer's departure will trigger a by-election, probably to be held early in 2017.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/87729502/national-will-not-stand-candidate-in-mt-albert-byelection-to-replace-labour-mp-david-shearer

National isn't running a candidate.

Jacinda Ardern is the Labour candidate. This should be a shoo-in for her. Her opponents are Penny Bright (Indep; ran for mayor in 2016 and got 1.77%), Joe Carolan (Socialist Aotearoa), Julie Anne Genter (Green; currently a List MP too), and Vin Tomar (People's Party; this party got about 4% in the Mount Roslill by-election last year).

Someone who knows NZ better than me can correct me, but I'm pretty sure that if Ardern is elected, Maryan Street will take Ardern's place from the list. Street was in Parliament from 2005-2014.

Edit: I should've mentioned that the by-election will be on February 25, 2017.

[Mazda]

National isn't running a candidate.

Jacinda Ardern is the Labour candidate. This should be a shoo-in for her. Her opponents are Penny Bright (Indep; ran for mayor in 2016 and got 1.77%), Joe Carolan (Socialist Aotearoa), Julie Anne Genter (Green; currently a List MP too), and Vin Tomar (People's Party; this party got about 4% in the Mount Roslill by-election last year).

Someone who knows NZ better than me can correct me, but I'm pretty sure that if Ardern is elected, Maryan Street will take Ardern's place from the list. Street was in Parliament from 2005-2014.

Edit: I should've mentioned that the by-election will be on February 25, 2017.

Yes, it'll be Maryan - she's next on the List and she wants to get back in.

We in Labour don't expect any serious contest, obviously, although Julie Anne is making a fair go of it. We're still putting a bit of effort in so as to keep the machine well-oiled, though.

The electorate covers some very expensive areas in terms of house prices, so housing is a major theme.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

National isn't running a candidate.

Jacinda Ardern is the Labour candidate. This should be a shoo-in for her. Her opponents are Penny Bright (Indep; ran for mayor in 2016 and got 1.77%), Joe Carolan (Socialist Aotearoa), Julie Anne Genter (Green; currently a List MP too), and Vin Tomar (People's Party; this party got about 4% in the Mount Roslill by-election last year).

Someone who knows NZ better than me can correct me, but I'm pretty sure that if Ardern is elected, Maryan Street will take Ardern's place from the list. Street was in Parliament from 2005-2014.

Edit: I should've mentioned that the by-election will be on February 25, 2017.

Yes, it'll be Maryan - she's next on the List and she wants to get back in.

We in Labour don't expect any serious contest, obviously, although Julie Anne is making a fair go of it. We're still putting a bit of effort in so as to keep the machine well-oiled, though.

The electorate covers some very expensive areas in terms of house prices, so housing is a major theme.

I'd say housing will be a major theme in November or whenever the general election is. I have looked at places outside of Auckland (mainly on the West Coast for giggles) and houses aren't too bad there, at least compared to California prices. The houses are usually a bit smaller, but our homes are a bit ostentatious.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/cat-among-the-pigeons-ck-198966

Gareth Morgan's Opportunities Party will be running a candidate in the Mount Albert by-election. Geoff Simmons will be the candidate.