Is this a potential 2040 map?

[Kingpoleon]

222(R): Governor Jared Kushner(R-NY)/Senator Emma Kasich(R-OH)
206(D): Senator Kyrsten Sinema(D-AZ)/Senator William Matheson(D-UT)
110: Tossup

[Figueira]

Sure.

[Pericles]

I doubt most people in 2013 or even 2016 itself got the 2016 map right so it is virtually impossible to predict the 2040 election. Still, guessing can be fun so no harm done and cool map.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Anything is a potential 2040 map.

[The_Doctor]

Uhh 2040 ... 24 years from now. The 1992 map was very different from today, lol.

My guess - after the realigning elections of 2024, the election of 2028 and 2032 go Democratic. That paves the way for a Republican victory in 2036 and so 2040, that GOP President's re-election!

(Yeah, all wild speculation).

I'll give this map a shot. Maybe in 2040, I'll check back lol. Or someone will.

Short explanation.

Republicans have regained their moderate streak, after 3 Democratic victories in a row and huge Democratic majorities in Congress. Climate change has become a pressing issue and the minority-majority America is 4 years away but is functionally here.

The GOP has reverted to pragmatic Eisenhower Republicanism and has built a broad coalition of whites, strong support among Asians and Latinos. Democrats are driven back to minority-majority strongholds as the GOP president sweeps to re-election 55-40%.

[Cashew]

No New York is staying Democratic.

Also in what world will Alabama, and the inner south become competitive with an increasingly socially liberal democratic party?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anything is a potential 2040 map.

[LLR]

Alabama? Utah? Arkansas? Kentucky? West Virginia? New F**king York? C'mon Kingpo, this is awful.

[AGA]

I don't see how Missouri, Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Utah become competitive. I would also flip New York, New Jersey, Alabama, and maybe South Carolina, but pretty much any 2040 prediction is possible at this point.

[kyc0705]

Ask me in 24 years.

[7,052,770]

Shot in the dark:

[Figueira]

Shot in the dark:

Ugh, that would be awful.

[Figueira]

Shot in the dark:

Ugh, that would be awful.

Other than the senate, why?

I was referring to the Senate.

Winning Mississippi would be great, though.

[bagelman]

the dimocrats nominated their worst candidate in history who made james buchanan look like lincoln and fdr in comparison, Marcus Clinton who is the definition of corruption, and if elected would bow down and kiss the feet of the director of the Eurasian Technate. We would have lost WWIV if that idiot got within a parsec mile of the Second White House. The Dumbocrats screwed the pooch, BIGLY. The GOP could nominate a smartphone against that fu]cking clown and the Damnocrats still lose easily because they chose MARCUS CLINTON as their candidate for PRESIDENT.

[libertpaulian]

Alabama? Utah? Arkansas? Kentucky? West Virginia? New F**king York? C'mon Kingpo, this is awful.

I could see New York going Republican if all the liberal New Yorkers moved down South.

Yeah, we know that's not happening, but that's the only way I see it happening, barring political climates shifting.

[Vosem]

Anything is a possible 2040 map. In 1992, WV's Republican trend was barely beginning, and it was still roughly as Democratic, if not slightly more so downballot, than CA. Nobody would've suggested that in 2016 it would be the second most Republican state in the nation.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

NY and NJ aren't going to be republican. AL, LA, MS, and SC aren't going to be democrat. I could see demographics flipping GA, TX, FL, and AZ to the democrats while the GOP gains control of the Midwest and possibly parts of the Northeast and Northwest by dominating the white vote nationally.

[Cuckslayer]

NY and NJ aren't going to be republican. AL, LA, MS, and SC aren't going to be democrat. I could see demographics flipping GA, TX, FL, and AZ to the democrats while the GOP gains control of the Midwest and possibly parts of the Northeast and Northwest by dominating the white vote nationally.

Sounds like a race war election map.

[jamestroll]

ha ha ha .. who knows.

[AGA]

Shot in the dark:

I'd flip Alaska or at least have it as a tossup.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Just tossing this out there:

I don't think the trends we've been seeing since the 2000 election will carry on for 40 years. So this is my random guess as to what the next realignment election map will look like by 2040.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Just tossing this out there:

I don't think the trends we've been seeing since the 2000 election will carry on for 40 years. So this is my random guess as to what the next realignment election map will look like by 2040.

If we had a realignment that stark, a lot of voters would be switching sides.  What issues do the parties run on?  How would I (presumably) vote?

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Just tossing this out there:

I don't think the trends we've been seeing since the 2000 election will carry on for 40 years. So this is my random guess as to what the next realignment election map will look like by 2040.

If we had a realignment that stark, a lot of voters would be switching sides.  What issues do the parties run on?  How would I (presumably) vote?

1. By 2028/2032 the Berniecrats have transformed the Democratic Party into an FDR "New" New Deal style Party (this I believe to be inevitable, but that's a later thread).
2. The definition of whiteness has expanded to include Hispanics and asians so the republicans no longer struggle with the perceived minority-majority demographic changes of the USA (this I also believe to be inevitable)
3. Republicans embrace Trumpist nationalism and trade protectionism. This wins them the Midwest and they make serious long term inroads in the northeast. However they cut entitlements which angers their southern white base and the Trumpists slowly begin to desert the GOP on traditional social issues.
4. Democratic coalition is now a somewhat shaky combination of African Americans, 50% plus of southern working class whites (voting on economic issues) and millennials/gen Zers who migrated to the sunbelt over time.

Republican issues
1. Trade protectionism (wins them the Midwest) but instead of tariffs, the focus will be on tax breaks and other means of keeping businesses and jobs at home.
2. Low corporate taxes, pro VAT, pro export economy
3. Entitlement reform
4. Socially moderate. Immigration laws are strict. Pro gun control (or moderate)
5. Foreign policy is focused on keeping China contained both economically and militarily. Russia will continue its decline as a superpower.
6. Secular society. Religion is only as important as an individual American wants it to be for themselves personally.

Democratic issues
1. Social welfare and social democracy are the two key issues.
2. Pro animal rights, pro environment.
3. Socially liberal, but pro gun.
4. Strong job training programs and a strong safety net. Pro consumption economy
5. Investments into rural communities and small businesses by taxing large businesses.
6. Isolationist foreign policy.
7. Religion is a private matter but should be encouraged in households.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Just tossing this out there:

I don't think the trends we've been seeing since the 2000 election will carry on for 40 years. So this is my random guess as to what the next realignment election map will look like by 2040.

If we had a realignment that stark, a lot of voters would be switching sides.  What issues do the parties run on?  How would I (presumably) vote?

1. By 2028/2032 the Berniecrats have transformed the Democratic Party into an FDR "New" New Deal style Party (this I believe to be inevitable, but that's a later thread).
2. The definition of whiteness has expanded to include Hispanics and asians so the republicans no longer struggle with the perceived minority-majority demographic changes of the USA (this I also believe to be inevitable)
3. Republicans embrace Trumpist nationalism and trade protectionism. This wins them the Midwest and they make serious long term inroads in the northeast. However they cut entitlements which angers their southern white base and the Trumpists slowly begin to desert the GOP on traditional social issues.
4. Democratic coalition is now a somewhat shaky combination of African Americans, 50% plus of southern working class whites (voting on economic issues) and millennials/gen Zers who migrated to the sunbelt over time.

Republican issues
1. Trade protectionism (wins them the Midwest) but instead of tariffs, the focus will be on tax breaks and other means of keeping businesses and jobs at home.
2. Low corporate taxes, pro VAT, pro export economy
3. Entitlement reform
4. Socially moderate. Immigration laws are strict. Pro gun control (or moderate)
5. Foreign policy is focused on keeping China contained both economically and militarily. Russia will continue its decline as a superpower.
6. Secular society. Religion is only as important as an individual American wants it to be for themselves personally.

Democratic issues
1. Social welfare and social democracy are the two key issues.
2. Pro animal rights, pro environment.
3. Socially liberal, but pro gun.
4. Strong job training programs and a strong safety net. Pro consumption economy
5. Investments into rural communities and small businesses by taxing large businesses.
6. Isolationist foreign policy.
7. Religion is a private matter but should be encouraged in households.

So what happens to social conservatives?  I don't think I could vote for either of those parties.

[RINO Tom]

Just tossing this out there:

I don't think the trends we've been seeing since the 2000 election will carry on for 40 years. So this is my random guess as to what the next realignment election map will look like by 2040.

If we had a realignment that stark, a lot of voters would be switching sides.  What issues do the parties run on?  How would I (presumably) vote?

1. By 2028/2032 the Berniecrats have transformed the Democratic Party into an FDR "New" New Deal style Party (this I believe to be inevitable, but that's a later thread).
2. The definition of whiteness has expanded to include Hispanics and asians so the republicans no longer struggle with the perceived minority-majority demographic changes of the USA (this I also believe to be inevitable)
3. Republicans embrace Trumpist nationalism and trade protectionism. This wins them the Midwest and they make serious long term inroads in the northeast. However they cut entitlements which angers their southern white base and the Trumpists slowly begin to desert the GOP on traditional social issues.
4. Democratic coalition is now a somewhat shaky combination of African Americans, 50% plus of southern working class whites (voting on economic issues) and millennials/gen Zers who migrated to the sunbelt over time.

Republican issues
1. Trade protectionism (wins them the Midwest) but instead of tariffs, the focus will be on tax breaks and other means of keeping businesses and jobs at home.
2. Low corporate taxes, pro VAT, pro export economy
3. Entitlement reform
4. Socially moderate. Immigration laws are strict. Pro gun control (or moderate)
5. Foreign policy is focused on keeping China contained both economically and militarily. Russia will continue its decline as a superpower.
6. Secular society. Religion is only as important as an individual American wants it to be for themselves personally.

Democratic issues
1. Social welfare and social democracy are the two key issues.
2. Pro animal rights, pro environment.
3. Socially liberal, but pro gun.
4. Strong job training programs and a strong safety net. Pro consumption economy
5. Investments into rural communities and small businesses by taxing large businesses.
6. Isolationist foreign policy.
7. Religion is a private matter but should be encouraged in households.

So what happens to social conservatives?  I don't think I could vote for either of those parties.

Guess you'll stay home!