Which GOP Senators are likely to become Blue Dog Democrats?

[NeverAgain]

I saw Susan Collins speak today. She seems to be distancing herself from Trump, but LOVES the attention as the queen of Moderates. Pretty unlikely she'll switch.

[BuckeyeNut]

None realistically, but if I had to choose one, McCain. Probably doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected, has been personally attacked by the President-elect, and was a past target for a switch.

[RINO Tom]

None realistically, but if I had to choose one, McCain. Probably doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected, has been personally attacked by the President-elect, and was a past target for a switch.

He was also a past GOP nominee, it would be completely unprecedented and crazy to switch parties.

NOBODY IS SWITCHING, OP.  Politicians realize that you don't have to agree with your party on everything, and they joined that original party for a reason.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

small chance of murkowski, even smaller chance of mccain. the others? 0%

[I’m not Stu]

None realistically, but if I had to choose one, McCain. Probably doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected, has been personally attacked by the President-elect, and was a past target for a switch.

I think McCain will become a Blue Dog Democrat in his final term.

[Heisenberg]

None realistically, but if I had to choose one, McCain. Probably doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected, has been personally attacked by the President-elect, and was a past target for a switch.

I think McCain will become a Blue Dog Democrat in his final term.

Why do you really think that. He is Republican. Period. And he's WAY closer to McConnell than he is to Schumer, and he is a former nominee.

[I’m not Stu]

None realistically, but if I had to choose one, McCain. Probably doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected, has been personally attacked by the President-elect, and was a past target for a switch.

I think McCain will become a Blue Dog Democrat in his final term.

Why do you really think that. He is Republican. Period. And he's WAY closer to McConnell than he is to Schumer, and he is a former nominee.

Even though he is closer to McConnell, McConnell supports Trump. McCain did consider switching in 2001 despite being closer to McConnell.

[Heisenberg]

None realistically, but if I had to choose one, McCain. Probably doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected, has been personally attacked by the President-elect, and was a past target for a switch.

I think McCain will become a Blue Dog Democrat in his final term.

Why do you really think that. He is Republican. Period. And he's WAY closer to McConnell than he is to Schumer, and he is a former nominee.

Even though he is closer to McConnell, McConnell supports Trump. McCain did consider switching in 2001 despite being closer to McConnell.

That was FIFTEEN years ago. He is a Republican. He would never vote for Bernie Sanders to chair the Budget Committee.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wildcard: Lindsey Graham?

But actually neither of these dudes.

[Maxwell]

Easily Murkowski - she's fairly moderate, and unlike Collins, the GOP seems to have active hostility towards her. Collins survives because even hardline GOPers see her as loyal, whereas Murkowski votes way more moderate than her state tends to accept from a Republican Senator.

Rick Santorum is quoted as liking Susan Collins more than John McCain because she's a more loyal Republican when it matters, whereas McCain, who probably votes more conservatively, is willing to balk on serious issues.

[I’m not Stu]

Easily Murkowski - she's fairly moderate, and unlike Collins, the GOP seems to have active hostility towards her. Collins survives because even hardline GOPers see her as loyal, whereas Murkowski votes way more moderate than her state tends to accept from a Republican Senator.

Rick Santorum is quoted as liking Susan Collins more than John McCain because she's a more loyal Republican when it matters, whereas McCain, who probably votes more conservatively, is willing to balk on serious issues.

Is the GOP base in Arizona hostile to McCain?

[Maxwell]

Easily Murkowski - she's fairly moderate, and unlike Collins, the GOP seems to have active hostility towards her. Collins survives because even hardline GOPers see her as loyal, whereas Murkowski votes way more moderate than her state tends to accept from a Republican Senator.

Rick Santorum is quoted as liking Susan Collins more than John McCain because she's a more loyal Republican when it matters, whereas McCain, who probably votes more conservatively, is willing to balk on serious issues.

Is the GOP base in Arizona hostile to McCain?

McCain barely held against one criminal huckster and moron (JD Hayworth) and one lunatic (Kelli Ward), so you tell me. 

But McCain is too conservative to ever actually make the party switch.

[SATW]

Easily Murkowski - she's fairly moderate, and unlike Collins, the GOP seems to have active hostility towards her. Collins survives because even hardline GOPers see her as loyal, whereas Murkowski votes way more moderate than her state tends to accept from a Republican Senator.

Rick Santorum is quoted as liking Susan Collins more than John McCain because she's a more loyal Republican when it matters, whereas McCain, who probably votes more conservatively, is willing to balk on serious issues.

Is the GOP base in Arizona hostile to McCain?

McCain barely held against one criminal huckster and moron (JD Hayworth) and one lunatic (Kelli Ward), so you tell me. 

But McCain is too conservative to ever actually make the party switch.

except he beat them both down handily.

[Maxwell]

Easily Murkowski - she's fairly moderate, and unlike Collins, the GOP seems to have active hostility towards her. Collins survives because even hardline GOPers see her as loyal, whereas Murkowski votes way more moderate than her state tends to accept from a Republican Senator.

Rick Santorum is quoted as liking Susan Collins more than John McCain because she's a more loyal Republican when it matters, whereas McCain, who probably votes more conservatively, is willing to balk on serious issues.

Is the GOP base in Arizona hostile to McCain?

McCain barely held against one criminal huckster and moron (JD Hayworth) and one lunatic (Kelli Ward), so you tell me. 

But McCain is too conservative to ever actually make the party switch.

except he beat them both down handily.

by Republican primary standards? not that handily. Especially for how awful both Hayworth and Ward are. Honestly Hayworth and Ward are the kind of people who should get single digits in a primary.

I have to give McCain credit though - his ads against Hayworth are hilarious.

[I’m not Stu]

I saw Susan Collins speak today. She seems to be distancing herself from Trump, but LOVES the attention as the queen of Moderates. Pretty unlikely she'll switch.

I no longer think she will switch. Collins is popular with Maine Republicans.

[rob in cal]

   If anyone left their party I'd like to see someone just become independent, or set up some little stand alone caucus like in the New York State Senate.  I'm tired of the either or binary choice of our politics. If anyone is politically courageous enough to leave their party, why not complete the progression and do what a true maverick would do and not be part of either party.

[I’m not Stu]

   If anyone left their party I'd like to see someone just become independent, or set up some little stand alone caucus like in the New York State Senate.  I'm tired of the either or binary choice of our politics. If anyone is politically courageous enough to leave their party, why not complete the progression and do what a true maverick would do and not be part of either party.

It is a good idea to be a crossbencher.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Arizona wanted a moderate dem senator, they would have elected Kirkpatrick. McCain is not a Democrat in any sense of the word and everyone knows that.

[I’m not Stu]

If Arizona wanted a moderate dem senator, they would have elected Kirkpatrick. McCain is not a Democrat in any sense of the word and everyone knows that.

A fair amount of moderate Democrats voted for McCain.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Arizona wanted a moderate dem senator, they would have elected Kirkpatrick. McCain is not a Democrat in any sense of the word and everyone knows that.

But is Kirkpatrick a pro-life pro gun Democrat (which do exist)? A fair amount of Hispanic voters and moderate Democrats voted for McCain.

Pro-gun, views the national debt as an objectively bad thing, worked with Paul Gosar on a lot of local issues.

[MarkD]

I don't really understand why any of the current Republican Senators would switch. The majority of switches in the past generation seem to born more from political expediency and less from some untenable divergence of ideology/policy positions. Considering Democrats are probably not going to have any kind of Senate majority until at least 2020 or 2022, it just doesn't make sense to me.

This is almost right. Most politicians who switch parties did so out of the combination of political expediency and ideological differences. It is not either/or.
I can see Trump causing a lot of division in the GOP in the next four years, but I can't see that resulting in anybody choosing to switch from Republican to Democrat.
Susan Collins is enormously popular with the voters of her state and I don't think her party label would matter one way or the other in terms of her re-election, so there would not be any expedient need to switch.

[I’m not Stu]

I don't really understand why any of the current Republican Senators would switch. The majority of switches in the past generation seem to born more from political expediency and less from some untenable divergence of ideology/policy positions. Considering Democrats are probably not going to have any kind of Senate majority until at least 2020 or 2022, it just doesn't make sense to me.

This is almost right. Most politicians who switch parties did so out of the combination of political expediency and ideological differences. It is not either/or.
I can see Trump causing a lot of division in the GOP in the next four years, but I can't see that resulting in anybody choosing to switch from Republican to Democrat.
Susan Collins is enormously popular with the voters of her state and I don't think her party label would matter one way or the other in terms of her re-election, so there would not be any expedient need to switch.

Collins is popular with the ME GOP base. McCain isn't popular with the GOP base in Arizona. McCain will retire in 2022. McCain won Kirkpatrick's district in 2016. Senators do sometimes switch when it doesn't flip Senate control. When Arlen Specter became a Democrat, it didn't flip the Senate.