Catholic Appeal

[History505]

Hi, I am a new young member here who is currently in my 3rd year of high school. My question is, do you think Trump's more vocal appeal to Catholics in this Election, more than Romney in 2012, helped more of them come out for him, and was also one of the key factors for Trump flipping PA, WI, and MI, since a lot of them voted for Obama in 2012?

[SingingAnalyst]

Hi, I am a new young member here who is currently in my 3rd year of high school. My question is, do you think Trump's more vocal appeal to Catholics in this Election, more than Romney in 2012, helped more of them come out for him, and was also one of the key factors for Trump flipping PA, WI, and MI, since a lot of them voted for Obama in 2012?

Yes. White Catholics, at least those who attend Mass and practice their faith, vote a lot like White Evangelical Protestants--very Republican. Latino Catholics are more Democratic, but polls showed a 2-point increase for Trump compared to Romney among Latinos (29% vs. 27%). Catholic consciousness of being a minority within a Protestant majority country, which in the past pushed Catholics to vote Democratic, has all but disappeared.

[SingingAnalyst]

I think it's great you show such interest in political demographics at such a young age. Research the James Blaine, Al Smith, and John F. Kennedy campaigns for some historical context. Also research Roe v. Wade, a dealbreaker for many Catholics (but preceded by Griswold v. Connecticut which is much less well known) for reasons as to why the Catholic vote has changed over the years. (If only Catholics had voted in 1968, Humphrey would have won easily).

[Badger]

Not much. To the extent there is a "Catholic Votee"--i.e. a vote based primarily on one's Catholicism--such votes are fairly locked in as they have been for a couple decades: a large majorithy voting Republican on social issues, a small minority in the Francis mold whose devotion to social justice overcame other issues to vote Deomocrat.

Most Catholic voters are occassional once a week or less (usually less) voters, whose rligion plays a secondary effect on their votes if anything.

[iratemoderate]

I concur with what others have said.

However, I think that part of why Trump over-performed with Roman Catholics in the primaries relative to Protestants is that his message that the system is broken (namely, that it disregards considerations of merit) resonated with these voters in particular. This is because most American Catholics are descended from populations (Irish, Italians, Poles, German Catholics) that really had to work hard in order to be accepted as legitimate Americans. That so many people today—illegals, people who refuse to learn or speak English, and so on—can violate the social contract that their ancestors had labored so hard to live up to, and without any great repercussions, grates on these voters.

[Person Man]

I concur with what others have said.

However, I think that part of why Trump over-performed with Roman Catholics in the primaries relative to Protestants is that his message that the system is broken (namely, that it disregards considerations of merit) resonated with these voters in particular. This is because most American Catholics are descended from populations (Irish, Italians, Poles, German Catholics) that really had to work hard in order to be accepted as legitimate Americans. That so many people today—illegals, people who refuse to learn or speak English, and so on—can violate the social contract that their ancestors had labored so hard to live up to, and without any great repercussions, grates on these voters.

Or that they aren't white. My dad's family spoke Italian at home until they moved to Tampa in the 60s. They immigrated in the 1880s.

[iratemoderate]

I concur with what others have said.

However, I think that part of why Trump over-performed with Roman Catholics in the primaries relative to Protestants is that his message that the system is broken (namely, that it disregards considerations of merit) resonated with these voters in particular. This is because most American Catholics are descended from populations (Irish, Italians, Poles, German Catholics) that really had to work hard in order to be accepted as legitimate Americans. That so many people today—illegals, people who refuse to learn or speak English, and so on—can violate the social contract that their ancestors had labored so hard to live up to, and without any great repercussions, grates on these voters.

Or that they aren't white. My dad's family spoke Italian at home until they moved to Tampa in the 60s. They immigrated in the 1880s.

Yes, that is definitely a factor as well—even if it will not be admitted.

[Person Man]

I concur with what others have said.

However, I think that part of why Trump over-performed with Roman Catholics in the primaries relative to Protestants is that his message that the system is broken (namely, that it disregards considerations of merit) resonated with these voters in particular. This is because most American Catholics are descended from populations (Irish, Italians, Poles, German Catholics) that really had to work hard in order to be accepted as legitimate Americans. That so many people today—illegals, people who refuse to learn or speak English, and so on—can violate the social contract that their ancestors had labored so hard to live up to, and without any great repercussions, grates on these voters.

Or that they aren't white. My dad's family spoke Italian at home until they moved to Tampa in the 60s. They immigrated in the 1880s.

Yes, that is definitely a factor as well—even if it will not be admitted.

In their defense, not every Trump supporter is racist. Though I am pretty sure most primary Trump supporters were. There were a few million racist Hillary voters, I'm sure.

[Badger]

I concur with what others have said.

However, I think that part of why Trump over-performed with Roman Catholics in the primaries relative to Protestants is that his message that the system is broken (namely, that it disregards considerations of merit) resonated with these voters in particular. This is because most American Catholics are descended from populations (Irish, Italians, Poles, German Catholics) that really had to work hard in order to be accepted as legitimate Americans. That so many people today—illegals, people who refuse to learn or speak English, and so on—can violate the social contract that their ancestors had labored so hard to live up to, and without any great repercussions, grates on these voters.

Or that they aren't white. My dad's family spoke Italian at home until they moved to Tampa in the 60s. They immigrated in the 1880s.

Or that a) immigration was at one point VASTLY easier than it is today. Not much more than get to Ellis Island or the like and pass a TB test; and b) many of the later "good" European immigrants were also illegals. The anti-Italian slur "Wop" is short for "without papers".

So yeah, iratemoderate, there are a lot of 4th generation descendants of immigrants who supported Trump's mass deportation policies, but wouldn't be here today if such policies were in effect for their ancestors.

The popular image of the quick to assimilate and legal "unlike today" European immigrant is frankly mostly a myth.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I concur with what others have said.

However, I think that part of why Trump over-performed with Roman Catholics in the primaries relative to Protestants is that his message that the system is broken (namely, that it disregards considerations of merit) resonated with these voters in particular. This is because most American Catholics are descended from populations (Irish, Italians, Poles, German Catholics) that really had to work hard in order to be accepted as legitimate Americans. That so many people today—illegals, people who refuse to learn or speak English, and so on—can violate the social contract that their ancestors had labored so hard to live up to, and without any great repercussions, grates on these voters.

I agree with this analysis.  It's very insightful.

When I was young and a Democratic Party activist, just about all priests and nuns were registered Democrats in Suffolk County, NY, where I grew up, even though the county was pretty Republican at the time.  At that time, there were many pro-life liberal Democrats.  Back then, the Massachusetts Congressional delegation, liberal to the core, were pretty reliable pro-lifers, even as they were liberal on other issues.  This type of legislative Northern Democrat has disappeared; pro-choice is pretty much a litmus test as to whether you are an acceptable Democrat or not today.  This has coincided with the Catholic clergy progressively registering and voting Republican.  They view themselves as having no stake in the Democratic Party AS CATHOLICS.  The Democrats can win the votes of lapsed Catholics and those who occasionally attend Mass, but I would suspect that regular Mass attenders are fairly reliably Republican nowadays.  

[Person Man]

I concur with what others have said.

However, I think that part of why Trump over-performed with Roman Catholics in the primaries relative to Protestants is that his message that the system is broken (namely, that it disregards considerations of merit) resonated with these voters in particular. This is because most American Catholics are descended from populations (Irish, Italians, Poles, German Catholics) that really had to work hard in order to be accepted as legitimate Americans. That so many people today—illegals, people who refuse to learn or speak English, and so on—can violate the social contract that their ancestors had labored so hard to live up to, and without any great repercussions, grates on these voters.

I agree with this analysis.  It's very insightful.

When I was young and a Democratic Party activist, just about all priests and nuns were registered Democrats in Suffolk County, NY, where I grew up, even though the county was pretty Republican at the time.  At that time, there were many pro-life liberal Democrats.  Back then, the Massachusetts Congressional delegation, liberal to the core, were pretty reliable pro-lifers, even as they were liberal on other issues.  This type of legislative Northern Democrat has disappeared; pro-choice is pretty much a litmus test as to whether you are an acceptable Democrat or not today.  This has coincided with the Catholic clergy progressively registering and voting Republican.  They view themselves as having no stake in the Democratic Party AS CATHOLICS.  The Democrats can win the votes of lapsed Catholics and those who occasionally attend Mass, but I would suspect that regular Mass attenders are fairly reliably Republican nowadays.  

Maybe but not to the point that the next Democrat elected will actually lose the Catholic vote. Or...

[Fuzzy Bear]

I concur with what others have said.

However, I think that part of why Trump over-performed with Roman Catholics in the primaries relative to Protestants is that his message that the system is broken (namely, that it disregards considerations of merit) resonated with these voters in particular. This is because most American Catholics are descended from populations (Irish, Italians, Poles, German Catholics) that really had to work hard in order to be accepted as legitimate Americans. That so many people today—illegals, people who refuse to learn or speak English, and so on—can violate the social contract that their ancestors had labored so hard to live up to, and without any great repercussions, grates on these voters.

I agree with this analysis.  It's very insightful.

When I was young and a Democratic Party activist, just about all priests and nuns were registered Democrats in Suffolk County, NY, where I grew up, even though the county was pretty Republican at the time.  At that time, there were many pro-life liberal Democrats.  Back then, the Massachusetts Congressional delegation, liberal to the core, were pretty reliable pro-lifers, even as they were liberal on other issues.  This type of legislative Northern Democrat has disappeared; pro-choice is pretty much a litmus test as to whether you are an acceptable Democrat or not today.  This has coincided with the Catholic clergy progressively registering and voting Republican.  They view themselves as having no stake in the Democratic Party AS CATHOLICS.  The Democrats can win the votes of lapsed Catholics and those who occasionally attend Mass, but I would suspect that regular Mass attenders are fairly reliably Republican nowadays.  

Maybe but not to the point that the next Democrat elected will actually lose the Catholic vote. Or...

If this is the case, the Democrats are reaping the fruit of making abortion their litmus test issue. 

[Badger]

I concur with what others have said.

However, I think that part of why Trump over-performed with Roman Catholics in the primaries relative to Protestants is that his message that the system is broken (namely, that it disregards considerations of merit) resonated with these voters in particular. This is because most American Catholics are descended from populations (Irish, Italians, Poles, German Catholics) that really had to work hard in order to be accepted as legitimate Americans. That so many people today—illegals, people who refuse to learn or speak English, and so on—can violate the social contract that their ancestors had labored so hard to live up to, and without any great repercussions, grates on these voters.

I agree with this analysis.  It's very insightful.

When I was young and a Democratic Party activist, just about all priests and nuns were registered Democrats in Suffolk County, NY, where I grew up, even though the county was pretty Republican at the time.  At that time, there were many pro-life liberal Democrats.  Back then, the Massachusetts Congressional delegation, liberal to the core, were pretty reliable pro-lifers, even as they were liberal on other issues.  This type of legislative Northern Democrat has disappeared; pro-choice is pretty much a litmus test as to whether you are an acceptable Democrat or not today.  This has coincided with the Catholic clergy progressively registering and voting Republican.  They view themselves as having no stake in the Democratic Party AS CATHOLICS.  The Democrats can win the votes of lapsed Catholics and those who occasionally attend Mass, but I would suspect that regular Mass attenders are fairly reliably Republican nowadays.  

I would suggest you compare it to my post above. I have no doubt that many 4th+ generation descendants of European immigrants like to believe their ancestors are more willing to jump through llegal hoops and culturally assimilate than modern-day hispanic immigrants, but as noted that's largely a myth.

Yes, abortion is about as much a litmus test to Democrats as it is to Republicans, no doubt. And yes, the shrinking numbers of Catholic clergy are increasingly Republican, but I know some for whom that's not the case, as it is for many Catholics who are hardly lapsed but believe the Sermon on the Mount is more crucial to God than a line from Leviticus, which also prohibits tattoos and shellfish.

[King of Kensington]

Or that a) immigration was at one point VASTLY easier than it is today. Not much more than get to Ellis Island or the like and pass a TB test; and b) many of the later "good" European immigrants were also illegals. The anti-Italian slur "Wop" is short for "without papers".

So yeah, iratemoderate, there are a lot of 4th generation descendants of immigrants who supported Trump's mass deportation policies, but wouldn't be here today if such policies were in effect for their ancestors.

The popular image of the quick to assimilate and legal "unlike today" European immigrant is frankly mostly a myth.

Yup.  Italian immigrants took a long time to take out citizenship and a lot never even learned English.

I'm guessing this is pretty much forgotten.  Those descended from the Ellis Island wave are mostly 3rd and 4th generation now.  The 2nd generation is pretty much 80+ and I suspect even they would be of the view that "my parents played by the rules, today's immigrants are jumping the queue."

[Kevrob]

The anti-Italian slur "Wop" is short for "without papers".

That's a false etymology.  The Online Etymology Dictionary and other sources have it deriving from Neapolitan slang - guappo - "dandy, dude, stud." Using a word like that to describe my Italian-American friends would have been worth my teeth, if not my life, back when.

I grew up in a Catholic household in Suffolk County on LI.  My Catholic high school used to organize bus trips to Albany, pre-Roe v Wade to protest and lobby against the legislature's liberalizing abortion laws.   I'm no longer affiliated with a church, and vote Libertarian, but the abortion issue has kept many faithful Catholics identified with the GOP.       

[TJ in Oregon]

Normally these sorts of things are already baked into the demographics of our partisan divide, but I do think there actually was something of an effect of the Trump campaign's appeal to Catholics because it helped keep a few anti-Trump Catholic Republicans in his column who would have bolted otherwise.

But the main reason why Trump did well with the Catholic vote was economics and the class divide. Trump's coalition managed to pull in more blue collar Catholics who normally either don't vote or vote Democratic.