Do You See Congress Lifting the Trade Embargo on Cuba if Raul Castro Dies?

[Frodo]

Even with Fidel Castro dead, it's fair to say not much will change in terms of Congress lifting the trade embargo and finally giving Cuba the status of a normal country.

But what if his brother follows him to the grave within a few years?  Will the anti-Castro Cuban hardliners in Congress relent then?

[Zioneer]

Literally the only thing keeping the Embargo alive is now Raul Castro. I see Cuba becoming less hardline once he dies, and apart from a few hardliners on the US side, I don't see anyone objecting to lifting the embargo from a post-Castro Cuba.

[I’m not Stu]

Yes. Cuba would likely become more moderate if Raul dies. Cuba hasn't been a threat in since the Cold War.

[JGibson]

Hopefully the farcical embargo is toast within the next few years.

[I’m not Stu]

Hopefully the farcical embargo is toast within the next few years.

That is very possible. More Republicans oppose the embargo now (like Rand Paul, Jerry Moran, and Pat Roberts) and Democrat Bob Menendez will likely be gone in 2018.

[Blue3]

"if" ?

[Cashew]

Hopefully the farcical embargo is toast within the next few years.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Paul's passing is a necessary but not not sufficient condition for the ending of the embargo.

[Maxwell]

No. Trump has emboldened the anti-Cuba sentiment among the Right, and they will stick with that as long as he is President.

[Mr. Morden]

No. Trump has emboldened the anti-Cuba sentiment among the Right, and they will stick with that as long as he is President.

Wasn't it actually emboldened by Obama initiating a thaw in relations with Cuba?  Since Obama was for it, wavering Republicans were against it, simply by virtue of being reflexively anti-Obama.

If Trump himself ends up supporting some kind of softening of either the trade embargo or the travel ban or both, then enough Republicans would follow him that it could pass Congress.  Not that I'm expecting him to do that any time soon, but could he do it at some point during his presidency?  It may not be likely, but I wouldn't rule it out.  Trump is pretty unpredictable.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Paul's passing is a necessary but not not sufficient condition for the ending of the embargo.

You mean Rand Paul's death would be a sufficient condition for ending of the embargo?

[Maxwell]

No. Trump has emboldened the anti-Cuba sentiment among the Right, and they will stick with that as long as he is President.

Wasn't it actually emboldened by Obama initiating a thaw in relations with Cuba?  Since Obama was for it, wavering Republicans were against it, simply by virtue of being reflexively anti-Obama.

If Trump himself ends up supporting some kind of softening of either the trade embargo or the travel ban or both, then enough Republicans would follow him that it could pass Congress.  Not that I'm expecting him to do that any time soon, but could he do it at some point during his presidency?  It may not be likely, but I wouldn't rule it out.  Trump is pretty unpredictable.

Trump emboldened it further, I believe.

[I’m not Stu]

Are pro-embargo Cuban-Americans still a large enough segment of voters?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Paul's passing is a necessary but not not sufficient condition for the ending of the embargo.

You mean Rand Paul's death would be a sufficient condition for ending of the embargo?

No I mean I didn't notice what my tablet's autocorrect did to what I typed.