What should these folks do in 2018 if they want to run for prez in 2020?
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  What should these folks do in 2018 if they want to run for prez in 2020?
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Author Topic: What should these folks do in 2018 if they want to run for prez in 2020?  (Read 437 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: November 26, 2016, 12:29:05 PM »

Sherrod Brown: Up for reelection in 2018
Andrew Cuomo: Up for reelection in 2018
Kirsten Gillibrand: Up for reelection in 2018
Amy Klobuchar: Up for reelection in 2018
Elizabeth Warren: Up for reelection in 2018

Cuomo faces reelection for governor while Brown, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Warren are all up in the Senate.  Klobuchar’s also rumored to be considering a run for governor, which would most likely mean no presidential run.  Are any of them better off “retiring” in 2018, so they can run for president full time, or are they better off staying in their current jobs?

One consideration: If the GOP retains the Senate in 2018, are they going to bring up a bunch of controversial measures for a vote in the Senate designed to divide or embarrass the Dem. presidential candidates?
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Figueira
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« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2016, 12:32:59 PM »

I think all of them are best off running again, although Cuomo could probably get away with it since retiring after two terms as governor is normal.
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anthonyjg
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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2016, 12:45:35 PM »

If I was Cuomo I'd retire to avoid a primary battle with the Sanders wing right before 2020. The rest should run for reelection.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2016, 10:32:03 PM »

Senators typically benefit from staying in the office during runs for President. Among other things it provides an excuse for free publicity with the opportunity to grandstand from the Senate floor. It's telling that several sitting senators have won their party's nominations for President since the metronome political era began (1952) with JFK, Goldwater, McGovern, Dole, Kerry, McCain and Obama all winning their party's nod, but no former Senator has won since Benjamin Harrison. Democrats are likely to stay in the minority, which removes the responsibility of governing.

I think there are more advantages to being a former Governor than a sitting Governor running for President. Voters in your state might not like it when you're elsewhere (see Christie) and the job is seen as more serious. Cuomo also has the possibility of an embarrassing primary result. He doesn't want a narrow win over an activist.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2016, 11:40:04 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2016, 11:53:49 PM by Mr. Morden »

I think there are more advantages to being a former Governor than a sitting Governor running for President.

I think it depends on the state though.  So much of modern fundraising is basically legalized bribery, with wealthy people donating lots of $ to politicians with power over their business interests.  Because New York is a large state with lots of rich people, being the sitting governor of New York makes Cuomo an enormous fundraising draw.  Even wealthy New Yorkers who don't actually like him or think he's going to win the presidency will donate $ to him in order to gain his loyalty, since his gubernatorial term would last another few years after the presidential race.

If he's no longer governor when he makes the presidential run though, then that won't work.

EDIT: Should note that all of the above depends on what New York's pay-to-play rules say.  Apparently, there's a fair amount of variation from state to state.  Depending on what the rules are in New York (and I don't know what they are) the ethics rules may make it tricky for Cuomo to raise huge sums from the financial industry while he's sitting governor.

That said, hasn't Cuomo managed to raise enormous sums of $ while governor?  I assume he could do so again as a sitting governor running for president, but I think he'd struggle as a former governor.  It's not like he's a hugely charismatic guy, nor does he appeal to some big underserved constituency in the Democratic primary electorate.  If he's no longer governor, will anyone care enough about him anymore to donate money to him?
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2016, 12:23:12 AM »

Sherrod Brown: Definitely run for reelection. If he wins, he instantly becomes a potential frontrunner if Warren and Sanders don't run, and would have Ohio behind him.

Andrew Cuomo: Retire and start planning a run. Perhaps join some progressive causes to clean his name.

Kirsten Gillibrand: Run for reelection, no harm in that. Though if I was her and Cuomo retired I'd run for Governor- she seems too much like Clinton to run in 2020, and a Governorship would create a distinction.

Amy Klobuchar: Depends on the odds of winning Presidential primary- if it looks good, run for reelection. If not and she has a good potential replacement to keep the seat Democratic, run for Governor.

Elizabeth Warren: Run and keep opposing Trump and being the face of the Democrats.
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