County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place
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  County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place
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Author Topic: County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place  (Read 2934 times)
RBH
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« on: November 26, 2016, 05:08:16 PM »

Clinton finished in 3rd in:

6 Idaho and 14 Utah Counties (behind McMullin)

Mohave County AZ Precinct 5 - North Canyon (Colorado City, AZ): Trump 781, Johnson 96, Clinton 26 (Same precinct gave more votes to Green Party candidate Gary Swing than Ann Kirkpatrick)

Trump finished 3rd in:

Chicago Ward 6/Precinct 2 (Clinton 489, Stein 7, Johnson 4, Trump 3)
Chicago Ward 6/Precinct 26 (Clinton 443, Johnson 6, Stein 6, Trump 3) - Stein finished ahead of Trump in 6 other Ward 6 precincts and Johnson in another Ward 6 precinct
Madison WI Ward 42 (Clinton 2257, Stein 74, Trump 57)

Probably a lot more in a mix of majority LDS areas and ultra-Dem urban areas/college campuses.
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hewie_hursh
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« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2016, 08:07:48 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2016, 11:07:19 PM by hewie_hursh »

In Burlington Vermont, of the 19,130 that voted Clinton ended up with 76.8% to Trump's 11.0% and Jill Stein took 3.6% and Johnson 2.2%. However, in some of the city's more student and alternative neighborhoods, Stein tied or even surpassed the Republican nominee. These are the same areas of the city that typically give decent margins to the state's Progressive party. Still, Republicans typically earn more than 10% of the vote here so Trump's 5.4% average is abnormally low.

Ward 2 LD 6-3: Clinton 1229 (77.3%) / Stein 113 (7.1%) / Trump 92 (5.8%) / Johnson 32 (2.0%)
Ward 2 LD 6-4: Clinton 414 (85.2%) / Stein 23 (4.7%) / Trump 14 (2.9%) / Johnson 10 (2.1%)
Ward 6 LD 6-3: Clinton 213 (83.5%) / Stein 15 (5.9%) / Trump 15 (5.9% / Johnson 3 (1.2%)
Ward 8 LD 6-4: Clinton 179 (90.0%) / Stein 10 (5.0%) / Trump 6 (3.0%) / Johnson 1 (0.5%)

AVERAGE: Clinton 2035 (85.9%) / Stein 161 (6.8%) / Trump 127 (5.4%) / Johnson 46 (1.9%)
Total: 2369
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RBH
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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2016, 10:15:15 PM »

and there's a strong possibility that write-ins for Sanders beat Trump in those precincts.

Looking at Idaho results. Clinton finished 4th in one Madison County (Rexburg) precinct (Porter Park). Trump 201/McMullin 176/Johnson 30/Clinton 25.

Johnson finished ahead of Clinton in 3 other Idaho precincts. In one of those precincts Clinton got 0 votes and Darrell Castle got one vote.
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hewie_hursh
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2016, 10:00:10 AM »

Indeed, Bernie got a ton of write in votes, unfortunately there aren't write-in breakdowns for each individual polling station. But the next best thing is to look at Burlington's 6-3 and 6-4 legislative districts (a mix between student neighborhoods and the bohemian Old North End). The results were:

Chittenden LD 6-3: Clinton 2818 / Trump 258 / Bernie 229 / Stein 224 / Johnson 71
Chittenden LD 6-4: Clinton 2028 / Trump 150 / Stein 96 / Bernie 69 / Johnson 44
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Hnv1
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2016, 10:26:53 AM »

Fremont WA/Amherst MA/Cambridge MA. In all of these I suspect we'll find place where trump finished 3rdmm3rd
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RBH
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2016, 03:01:59 PM »

Fremont WA/Amherst MA/Cambridge MA. In all of these I suspect we'll find place where trump finished 3rdmm3rd

Amherst, precinct 9: Clinton 1382, Stein 91, Trump 79, Johnson 48

http://www.amherstma.gov/DocumentCenter/View/36679

Cambridge, ward 2/precinct 2: Clinton 433, Johnson 27, Trump 19, Stein 10, McMullin (write-in) 10

Cambridge, ward 8/precinct 3: Clinton 426, Johnson 15, Trump 11, Stein 6

https://www.cambridgema.gov/~/media/76C861E82C3E47898930ABDF09792DB0.ashx

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RBH
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2016, 03:23:04 PM »

Ithaca 5-2: Clinton 613, Stein 44, Trump 38, Johnson 11

http://tompkinscountyny.gov/files/boe/Additional_Information/Past_Results_files/2016/General_Election/Results_per_ED_2016_11_08T23_17_43_To%20HTML.HTML

Sioux County ND (Standing Rock):

Cannonball: CLINTON 138, STEIN 33, TRUMP 18
FY East: CLINTON 261, STEIN 35, TRUMP 23
FY West:  CLINTON 235, STEIN 36, TRUMP 27

Oglala Lakota County SD (formerly Shannon), Manderson precinct: Clinton 157, Johnson 10, Trump 7, Castle 5.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2016, 03:36:31 PM »

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=253461.0

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RI
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2016, 11:41:36 PM »

Clinton finished in fourth in a few places in Utah, usually behind Johnson, but I did find this precinct:

Oak City (Millard County): Trump 267, McMullin 67, Castle 27, Clinton 22

This wasn't even Castle's best performance in the county.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2016, 12:24:46 AM »

I think the Mormon belt can be defined where McMullin got 3rd place.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2016, 12:30:30 AM »

Yep. But notice how strongly Trump performed relative to the average in heavily working-class Mormon areas (e.g., Carbon and Piute)—both in the caucus and in the general election. An interesting class-based divide.
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RBH
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« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2016, 02:16:23 AM »

Carbon County is a Coal County that has one of the lower LDS adherence rates in the state of Utah

Piute County was one of Trump's better counties in the Caucuses. It's also the second smallest county in the state.

As for third place finishes

NYC AD 70/ED 4 (Keith Wright/Inez Dickens, Harlem-area): Clinton 640, Stein 16, Trump 8, Johnson 4

And in the entirety of AD 56 (Bed-Stuy, Annette Robinson), Trump won 877 votes on the unofficial count and Stein won 814.

Looking at the NYC results map, ED 4 in AD 70 is located in-between Adam Clayton Powell Blvd and Lenox from 112th to 114th. St. Nicholas Ave is also part of the border of the precinct/election district. Google Maps says there is a Vegan restaurant in the election district.
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RI
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« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2016, 03:15:21 PM »

The NW areas of Alaska loved Castle:

Precinct 38-802 Akiak: Clinton 47.9, Castle 21.9, Trump 15.6
Precinct 38-832 Lower Kalskag: Clinton 53.9, Castle 14.1, Johnson/Stein: 10.3, Trump/Write-ins: 5.2
Precinct 39-930 Pilot Station: Clinton 63.8, Castle 13.4, Trump 8.7
Precinct 39-932 Savoonga: Clinton 67.2, Castle 13.8, Trump 9.1
Precinct 40-022 Kobuk: Clinton 35.7, Castle 26.2, Write-ins 14.3, Trump 11.9, Johnson 9.5
Precinct 40-034 Point Lay: Clinton 37.5, Castle 21.9, Trump 18.8, Write-ins 14.1
Precinct 40-330 Hughes: Clinton 56.8, Castle 18.9, Trump/Johnson 8.11
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RBH
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« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2016, 03:45:04 PM »

Combing through Salt Lake County precinct results

Out of 829 precincts.. McMullin finished ahead of Clinton in 118 precincts and ahead of Trump in 26 precincts.

McMullin won 9 precincts, mostly very small precincts. He did carry SJD030 in South Jordan (McMullin 390, Trump 350, Clinton 326)

Trump finished third in several large Salt Lake City precincts..

SLC030: Clinton 516, McMullin 59, Trump 53
SLC040: Clinton 315, McMullin 54, Trump 52
SLC080: Clinton 497, McMullin 329, Trump 192
SLC109: Clinton 574, McMullin 69, Trump 63
SLC117: Clinton 422, McMullin 86, Trump 67
SLC129: Clinton 361, McMullin 94, Trump 67
SLC130: Clinton 423, McMullin 132, Trump 130
SLC131: Clinton 387, McMullin 93, Trump 89
SLC132: Clinton 487, McMullin 142, Trump 139
SLC158: Clinton 301, McMullin 84, Trump 71

Clinton won the SLC precincts by a 66/16 margin (50832-12567). Trump carried the rest of the county by 465 votes (125476-125011).

McMullin finished 2nd and Clinton finished 3rd in several large precincts in Bluffdale, Draper, Herriman, Riverton, South Jordan and West Jordan. All communities south of Salt Lake City around Interstate 15.

Herriman had one small precinct where McMullin topped 40% (and lost) which was one of McMullin's best precincts and Clinton's worst precincts, and one small precinct where Johnson topped 11% (and Clinton won with 38%).
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Alcon
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« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2016, 04:07:56 PM »

The NW areas of Alaska loved Castle:

Precinct 38-802 Akiak: Clinton 47.9, Castle 21.9, Trump 15.6
Precinct 38-832 Lower Kalskag: Clinton 53.9, Castle 14.1, Johnson/Stein: 10.3, Trump/Write-ins: 5.2
Precinct 39-930 Pilot Station: Clinton 63.8, Castle 13.4, Trump 8.7
Precinct 39-932 Savoonga: Clinton 67.2, Castle 13.8, Trump 9.1
Precinct 40-022 Kobuk: Clinton 35.7, Castle 26.2, Write-ins 14.3, Trump 11.9, Johnson 9.5
Precinct 40-034 Point Lay: Clinton 37.5, Castle 21.9, Trump 18.8, Write-ins 14.1
Precinct 40-330 Hughes: Clinton 56.8, Castle 18.9, Trump/Johnson 8.11

I'm not surprised that Alaska Natives aren't Trump fans...but any explanation for why Castle picked up so much support?  That can't just be people randomly voting for him on the ballot as an alternative.  Way too much support for it to not be concerted somehow.
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RBH
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« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2016, 04:33:14 PM »

Castle was the first listed name on the ballots in Alaska. But that seems like way too much support for just being listed first.

The precincts in 38/39 were Yupik areas, and Kobuk/Point Lay are Inupiaq. Hughes is Athabascan.
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RI
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« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2016, 04:39:03 PM »

Castle was also listed under the "Alaska Constitution Party" on the ballot. None of the other parties had "Alaska" in their title. I don't know if that had any affect, but it might have had some.
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« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2016, 09:33:59 PM »

The Constitution Party typically does strong in the remote parts of Alaska, this year wasn't the only one. The reason might be that the Alaska Independence Party is pretty closely associated with it and basically serves as its de facto state affiliate (it used to be official in the past), and the AIP actually has some influence and a machine in those areas.
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RI
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« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2016, 12:50:41 PM »

Trump won Provo 39.37-34.96, which was McMullin's best city in Utah County. He won 26 precincts countywide of 319.
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RBH
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« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2016, 03:11:13 PM »

Trump finished third in PR06. McMullin 167, Clinton 135, Trump 109.

Looking at the map and JusticeMap, there is a large block that has 400+ people and is 70%+ Hispanic that probably boosted Clinton's numbers enough to get her in second place there.

McMullin got around 50% in the Provo precincts around the BYU Campus.
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shua
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« Reply #20 on: November 29, 2016, 08:49:49 PM »

The Constitution Party typically does strong in the remote parts of Alaska, this year wasn't the only one. The reason might be that the Alaska Independence Party is pretty closely associated with it and basically serves as its de facto state affiliate (it used to be official in the past), and the AIP actually has some influence and a machine in those areas.

The Alaska CP platform contains some Alaska-specific items that aren't necessarily right-wing that I think broadens their appeal.

Lewis also mentioned something about Yup'ik evangelicals being CP/Dem swing voters.
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RBH
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« Reply #21 on: November 30, 2016, 01:12:56 AM »

some third place precinct finishes I found in New Mexico

Johnson finished ahead of Trump in quite a few precincts. Seemingly a lot of reservation/pueblo precincts.

Trump finished 4th in Precinct 6 in Santa Fe County (Clinton 100, Johnson 17, Stein 7, Trump 3)

Evan McMullin's best county was Los Alamos County, and he finished in the 4% range in a few Los Alamos precincts
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jimrtex
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« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2016, 11:01:44 AM »

Clinton and Johnson tied for 2nd in King County, TX. Trump 149, Clinton and Johnson 5 each.

Since each county in Texas has at least 4 precincts, it is likely that Johnson finished ahead of Clinton in some of them.

In Harris County, TX:

Precinct 528: Clinton 23, McMullin 1, Trump, Johnson, Stein, et al, 0.
Precinct 791: Clinton 9, Trump, Johnson, Stein, 1 each.
Precinct 871: Clinton 2, Johnson 1 (33%), Trump 0.
Precinct 373: Clinton 67, Stein 2, Trump 1.

These appear to be statistical noise. In precincts with more votes, Trump usually had about twice as many votes as Stein and Johnson, e.g.

Clinton 1000, Trump 18, Johnson 12, Stein 9
Clinton 992, Trump 17, Stein 10, Johnson 7
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RBH
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« Reply #23 on: December 05, 2016, 10:48:20 PM »

The result of Kiryas Joel, NY (the electorally notorious Hasidic community in Orange County, NY) produced a result where Trump and Clinton lost to blank ballots (undervotes).

The Results from KJ (Monroe 20 thru 35): Trump 1596, Clinton 1263, Johnson 247, Stein 21. Undervotes 3023.

The KJ voters did feel more inclined to vote on the Karl Brabinec (R) vs Aron Wieder (D) State Assembly race.

Wieder won KJ by a 4633-1497 margin with just 86 undervotes. Most of the KJ votes for Wieder came on the Independence Party line. LJ residents also voted on the Independence Party line in droves for Chuck Schumer and Sean Patrick Maloney (with a good number of undervotes anyways).

IIRC, there were a bunch of intentional-ish undervotes from Kiryas Joel in 2008 and 2012 as well. Like "a majority of undervotes in the county from a village with 10,000 voters" level of undervotes in those years too.
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RBH
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« Reply #24 on: December 05, 2016, 11:54:15 PM »

i'd guess that the precinct voted at a polling place with other precincts, but was counted separately
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