First Likely Entry Into The 2020 Election

[History505]

Who do you think would be the first person to enter the 2020 Presidential Election? Still a few years away, but your very preliminary guess.

[iratemoderate]

Besides Rocky De La Fuente? :-)

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

On the Dem side,

O'Malley, Gabbard, or Murphy. Franken and Hickenlooper.... watch them....

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley met with the Iowa delegation at the Democratic National Convention this summer, suggesting that his presidential ambition is still alive.  For that matter, what was the point of him running in 2016, if not to create name recognition for him to capitalize on in the next open Democratic contest?

So I'm assuming that he'll run again, and I guess that makes him the most likely person to announce his candidacy first.  He doesn't have a day job, so what else is he going to do?  All the other most commonly speculated upon candidates already hold public office.

[Crumpets]

Looking at the first Dem to announce each year:

2016 - Clinton
2008 - Mike Gravel
2004 - Joe Lieberman
2000 - Bill Bradley
1992 -

Sooo.... I suppose I'll guess Booker.

[Mr. Morden]

Sooo.... I suppose I'll guess Booker.

My hesitation on Booker is how is he going to handle his Senate seat being up in 2020?  I'm assuming he'll run for president, but I'm not sure if he's going to go the John Edwards route and leave the Senate at the end of his term regardless, the Rand Paul route of running for both at once (if that's legal in New Jersey), or the Marco Rubio route of starting out by ruling out another Senate term but then reversing himself if he doesn't win the nomination.

He might try to keep the suspense going for a while by pretending to be undecided on a presidential run for a while as he figures out what to do with his Senate seat.

[Maxwell]

I suspect O'Malley gives a second, hopeless run for President a shot, and is the first to announce to a big "who cares".

The first relevant person to enter? Probably Booker.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Probably O'malley. He seems eager, and eager candidates seem to enter early (e.g. Clinton, Rubio, Cruz). Perhaps Sanders if he decides to run, since I suspedt his almost-win this time made him eager.

[Figueira]

Donald Trump.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

O'Malley met with the Iowa delegation at the Democratic National Convention this summer, suggesting that his presidential ambition is still alive.  For that matter, what was the point of him running in 2016, if not to create name recognition for him to capitalize on in the next open Democratic contest?

The point of him running in 2016 was because he wanted to provide non-socialists with an option that wasn't Hillary. Simple as that.

Also this:

Donald Trump.

[Blair]

Generally their stance towards the Senate decides whether they'll run- Obama/Rubio/Edwards always hated it, and saw it as a means to an end, whilst Booker actually seems to enjoy being in the Senate.

I doubt that he'll run in 2020

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley met with the Iowa delegation at the Democratic National Convention this summer, suggesting that his presidential ambition is still alive.  For that matter, what was the point of him running in 2016, if not to create name recognition for him to capitalize on in the next open Democratic contest?

The point of him running in 2016 was because he wanted to provide non-socialists with an option that wasn't Hillary. Simple as that.

But it seemed clear from early on that there was no niche for such a candidate.  Though I guess you could say that he was the "in case of emergency, break glass, remove Martin O'Malley" option.  If there had been some huge Clinton scandal (or health problem for that matter) at the last minute, after all the primary filing deadlines had passed, O'Malley was already on the ballot everywhere, and could have been an establishment fallback option.

[Mr. Morden]

More interesting to me than who announces first is who starts visiting Iowa and New Hampshire first.  Cruz, Huckabee, Jindal, Paul, Santorum, and O’Malley were already starting to do Iowa and New Hampshire visits in the first half of 2013.  What about this time?  Many prospective candidates, like Cuomo, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Warren, are up for reelection in 2018, so maybe they won’t want to look ahead too much by planting their presidential flag too firmly before November ’18.  In general, there are more current officeholders being mentioned as potential candidates this time than there were for ’16, so the process might start more slowly.

Though again, O’Malley is an exception, since he’s already out of office.  So maybe we’ll see him in Iowa again soon.

[History505]

More interesting to me than who announces first is who starts visiting Iowa and New Hampshire first.  Cruz, Huckabee, Jindal, Paul, Santorum, and O’Malley were already starting to do Iowa and New Hampshire visits in the first half of 2013.  What about this time?  Many prospective candidates, like Cuomo, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Warren, are up for reelection in 2018, so maybe they won’t want to look ahead too much by planting their presidential flag too firmly before November ’18.  In general, there are more current officeholders being mentioned as potential candidates this time than there were for ’16, so the process might start more slowly.

Though again, O’Malley is an exception, since he’s already out of office.  So maybe we’ll see him in Iowa again soon.

Good Point.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

More interesting to me than who announces first is who starts visiting Iowa and New Hampshire first.  Cruz, Huckabee, Jindal, Paul, Santorum, and O’Malley were already starting to do Iowa and New Hampshire visits in the first half of 2013.  What about this time?  Many prospective candidates, like Cuomo, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Warren, are up for reelection in 2018, so maybe they won’t want to look ahead too much by planting their presidential flag too firmly before November ’18.  In general, there are more current officeholders being mentioned as potential candidates this time than there were for ’16, so the process might start more slowly.

Though again, O’Malley is an exception, since he’s already out of office.  So maybe we’ll see him in Iowa again soon.

Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Warren are in basically no danger of losing their seats, so they have nothing to worry about Re: visiting Iowa/NH in '17. But Cuomo may have to fight to even be renominated for governor, so he'll probably stay home for a while.

[Lief 🗽]

Isn't O'Malley basically broke and heavily in debt? I think he'll get a job for at least a year or two before starting to campaign again.

[Adam Griffin]

Isn't O'Malley basically broke and heavily in debt? I think he'll get a job for at least a year or two before starting to campaign again.

CHECK OUT HIS PLAN

[Maxwell]

Isn't O'Malley basically broke and heavily in debt? I think he'll get a job for at least a year or two before starting to campaign again.

Knowing O'Malley he'll probably lobby for something horrifying before running for President again pretending he didn't do it.

[BSH]

Isn't O'Malley basically broke and heavily in debt? I think he'll get a job for at least a year or two before starting to campaign again.

CHECK OUT HIS PLAN

Hold strong at your caucus!

[politics_king]

Most likely Martin O'Malley.