2 years out: How many senate seats will Republicans have after 2018?

[Ronnie]

I'm going to guess they pick up MT, IN, ND, WV and MO for a total of 57 seats.  I'm not confident at all about MT or ND, though, and I'm not quite ready to call Manchin dead in the water.  Sherrod Brown is also quite vulnerable, but I'll give it to him for now.

Dems make no pickups.

[Xing]

It makes little sense to predict these things so far out, but if I had to guess, I'll say 54. They pick up IN, MO, and ND, and lose NV.

[Heisenberg]

I'll be bold.
R+5 (MO, IN, MT, OH, WI)
D+1 (NV)
So 56.

[jamestroll]

Democrats should focus on holding their own rather than gaining the Senate in 2018.

I think the GOP will hold 53 seats after the 2018 elections. I will not bother predicting individual races at this point.

I am assuming a minor economic slow down in the next two years. Of course, no slow down or a very severe one could drastically change my predictions.

[Maxwell]

Optimistic - Dems gain Arizona and Nevada, lose Indiana (Donnelly is the only Democrat Incumbent who doesn't strike me as particularly talented in anything beyond getting a very easy to beat opponent in 2012).

51 Republican seats.

[jamestroll]

Oh, I promise I will not argue with anyone about their predictions here as it is way to early to argue. Plus, it is silly.

Only thing that can be predicted with confidence is that Democrats will win one of the next several elections.

[JerryArkansas]

I'll be even "bolder": Republicans win MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WI, WV and two of PA/MI/FL/ME. Democrats barely win in NV. R+8.

You have become such the hack.  A shame really. 

[jamestroll]

I'll be even "bolder": Republicans win MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WI, WV and two of PA/MI/FL/ME. Democrats barely win in NV. R+8.

You have become such the hack.  A shame really. 

At this early stage, Republicans will predict GOP victories and Democrats will predict Democratic victories... Yawn
 

[windjammer]

I used to believe that they would have picked 8 seats. But now that Trump has won, everything has changed.
I think democrats will either lose 1 of their seats or keep them all.

NV is likely a pick for them unless Sandoval runs, and that is unlikelu. Regarding AZ I'm quite optimistic. Sinema will probably run and Flake will have a lot of trouble, so republicans will lose 2 of their seats.


So right now if I have to guess: 51-49 for the Pubs.


However, a more unfavorable environment for the reps or for the dems wouldn't shock me at all. So I know that I will likely have to change my prediction in the future.

[Dan the Roman]

I think Republicans will do worse than Trump's popularity, as while Trump's unpopularity will transfer to Republican candidates, it is unclear if his popularity will do the same. That is especially true if Trump lets Paul Ryan get away with a massive set of tax cuts combined with changes to social security, and then pivots personally to blaming the congressional Rs for it.

Part of the problem is going to be that if you are a traditionally democratic voter who cast their ballot for Trump, but is fiscally liberal, it is unclear what you get by voting for a Republican candidate. Do you strengthen or weaken Trump's position v. Ryan? By contrast those that want to restrain Trump have only the option of voting D.

[Fusionmunster]

I'll be even "bolder": Republicans win MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WI, WV and two of PA/MI/FL/ME. Democrats barely win in NV. R+8.

You have become such the hack.  A shame really.  

.....I'm assuming he will at least be somewhat popular (say.. 48% approve/45% disapprove)......

Thats a BOLD assumption. The last incumbent party to hold or gain seats during a midterm was 2002 and that was after 9/11. Trump cant even break even now, why would he break even in 2 years in terms of approval?

[Maxwell]

I'll be even "bolder": Republicans win MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WI, WV and two of PA/MI/FL/ME. Democrats barely win in NV. R+8.

You have become such the hack.  A shame really. 

At this early stage, Republicans will predict GOP victories and Democrats will predict Democratic victories... Yawn
 

A more realistic prediction? Dems win Arizona, Republicans pick-up Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, and Montana, and maybe Ohio.

[Kingpoleon]

D+2

Nevada, and one of: Texas, Arizona, Nebraska, or Mississippi flips.

[Figueira]

54. Trading MO, WV, IN, and ND for NV and AZ.

Democrats can definitely do better than that, though.

[Heisenberg]

D+2

Nevada, and one of: Texas, Arizona, Nebraska, or Mississippi flips.

You really don't think Republicans will flip ANY seat? Wicker should be safe, Democrats can not compete in Texas with Henry Cuellar, and Nebraska is a long shot considering Kerrey lost pretty bad four years ago, though Ashford or Festersen would be solid recruits. Arizona is more likely to flip than the other three combined.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If Trump is a disaster, probably 50 or 51.  If he is really good, possibly as high as the low-to-mid 60s.  If he is simply polarizing, 55-57 seems about right.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Republicans win every Senate seat up for election, giving them a supermajority of 76 seats.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Hilarious thread, by the way.  I wonder how many people were writing Ben Nelson's obituary after Bush won 66% in Nebraska.

[Cynthia]

Democrats lose two of MO, IN, ND, and win Nevada, Arizona and one of the long shots (TX, MS, NE, or TN if Corker retires)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems should focus on Governor races in 2018 and most of the senate seats will fall to the Democrats since a lot of them are in the Midwest.

But GOP probably hold the majority in both Houses, but Trump is unpopular

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Prediction: all through 2018 the GOP looks in terrible shape, behind in every single potential pick-up, losing in Nevada and Arizona and even getting shock competitive races in Nebraska and Utah. Then in the last week Democrats find themselves in some absurd scandal involving flags or something stupid, lose all momentum and get wiped-out in Ohio, North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Michigan and Maine.

[Maxwell]

Prediction: all through 2018 the GOP looks in terrible shape, behind in every single potential pick-up, losing in Nevada and Arizona and even getting shock competitive races in Nebraska and Utah. Then in the last week Democrats find themselves in some absurd scandal involving flags or something stupid, lose all momentum and get wiped-out in Ohio, North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Michigan and Maine.

that does sound like something that would happen, considering what happened in 2014 and 2016.

[ElectionsGuy]

56 maybe.