Revisiting PPP Dem. primary polls from 2014….

[Mr. Morden]

Since the polling gods won’t give us new 2020 Democratic primary polls, I thought I’d look back at the 2016 PPP polls from the year 2014, where they tested a scenario in which neither Clinton nor Biden were to run.  The field of candidates they tested included many of the likely 2020ers (like Booker, Warren, Cuomo, Gillibrand, and O’Malley), so it might be worth revisiting.

March 2014 national poll:

If neither Biden nor Clinton runs:

Cuomo 19%
Warren 19%
Booker 12%
Gillibrand 6%
O'Malley 4%
Warner 3%
Schweitzer 1%

May 2014 Iowa poll:

If neither Biden nor Clinton run....

Warren 31%
Cuomo 14%
Booker 9%
Gillibrand 5%
O'Malley 2%
Warner 2%
Schweitzer 1%

January 2014 New Hampshire poll:

If neither Biden nor Clinton run....

Warren 30%
Cuomo 19%
Booker 9%
O'Malley 5%
Gillibrand 4%
Schweitzer 2%
Warner 2%

It’s interesting to look at the racial crosstabs in the national poll:

whites
Warren 23%
Cuomo 18%
Booker 7%
Gillibrand 4%

Hispanics
Cuomo 21%
Warren 21%
Gillibrand 11%
Booker 9%

blacks
Cuomo 25%
Booker 24%
Warren 8%
Gillibrand 7%

So even at that time, the Sanders primary deficit among blacks was being foreshadowed by Warren, the nearest “Sanders-style” candidate in this hypothetical field.  And Booker, despite not being hugely well known nationally, was well known enough that there was a big race gap running in the opposite direction for him.

I’d assume that this racial difference persists to this day, and may well persist into 2020?  But I guess we’ll see.  If so, it’ll be interesting to see how Booker (and/or Harris) handles the fact that heavily white Iowa and New Hampshire are first on the primary calendar.

[Mr. Morden]

Interestingly, while the racial gap for Warren has parallels to that of Sanders, her support by age in each of these polls is more similar to that of Clinton.  In all three polls, she does better among Dem. primary voters over 65 than those under 45.  In both the national and the New Hampshire poll, the ratio is a whopping ~2:1.  Not sure that would hold up if you took the poll today.

[SWE]

Wow....Cuomo does better with blacks than Booker

I didn't realize Cuomo was so popular

Probably a consequence of name recognition more than anything else.

[Mr. Morden]

Wow....Cuomo does better with blacks than Booker

I didn't realize Cuomo was so popular

At least at the time these polls were taken, Cuomo had higher name recognition than anyone else listed here, except Warren.  Probably because of his father.  Polls like this are mostly name recognition.

In any case, not sure how close these #s would be to a poll taken today.  I'd guess that Cuomo might have lost some altitude.  Indeed, the only 2020 poll we have so far is Morning Consult from last month, and it has Cuomo in single digits:

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Oct. 5-6:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Politico_MCPostVPToplines-1.pdf
https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Politico_MCPostVPCrosstabs.pdf

If Trump wins this year, who should be the 2020 Dem. nominee?

Warren 28%
Kaine 16%
Booker 9%
Cuomo 8%
"other" 8%
"don't know" 32%

[henster]

I am surprised Cuomo has such high name ID outside of NY

[Mr. Morden]

I am surprised Cuomo has such high name ID outside of NY

His father was a big deal nationally in the 80s and early 90s.  If you look at the favorability #s in these polls, it does look like his name recognition is indeed higher among olds than youngs.  (And some of these folks may not even realize that Andrew isn't Mario.)  That said, even among youngs, his name rec. is at least better than that of folks like Schweitzer and Warner.