2018 Senate Control Rating

[jamestroll]

I like how people are trying to predict how much the political landscape will change by 2018, plus, we don't even know how the GOP, and president Trump will perform in those years.

I am not giving a rating until a year out at the earliest.

I agree. The scary thing is, there is potential for Trump to be wildly popular and Democrats go below 40 seats in the Senate.

Hopefully that will not happen.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I like how people are trying to predict how much the political landscape will change by 2018, plus, we don't even know how the GOP, and president Trump will perform in those years.

I am not giving a rating until a year out at the earliest.

I agree. The scary thing is, there is potential for Trump to be wildly popular and Democrats go below 40 seats in the Senate.

Hopefully that will not happen.

Don't think that's happening https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

[Lachi]

I like how people are trying to predict how much the political landscape will change by 2018, plus, we don't even know how the GOP, and president Trump will perform in those years.

I am not giving a rating until a year out at the earliest.

I agree. The scary thing is, there is potential for Trump to be wildly popular and Democrats go below 40 seats in the Senate.

Hopefully that will not happen.

Don't think that's happening https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

and of course his deplorable sheep are following him in that very reply thred

[DavidB.]

Likely R, but only because we're so far out; much closer to safe R than to lean R.

[jamestroll]

Likely R, but only because we're so far out; much closer to safe R than to lean R.

I agree. And trying to retake the Senate will be fruitless cause, imo. Democrats should focus on minimizing loses.

[Cynthia]

Likely R for now. I can't see a plausible third pickup while Democrats holding onto all their own seats.

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely R. Make no mistake about it, the 2018 map for Democrats is really tough. I guess we’re actually lose one, two or three seats. Even if the Trumpster is already very unpopular in November 2018, I see almost no chance to regain the senate before the 2020 election. The odds to take back the house under a President Drumpf with underwater approval ratings is actually higher.

[Rural Radical2]

Likely Republican at this stage, though a lot could change

[Orser67]

Likely R, though closer to Safe R than Lean R. One thing to keep in mind though is that some Republican Senators (as well as Democratic Senators, of course) could die or otherwise leave office in the next two years, which could in turn lead to a Democratic pick-up in a special election.

[KingSweden]

Likely R. I think It'll be about net +1 in either direction.

[jamestroll]

Likely Republican, pretty close to safe as far as probability in Republicans holding the Senate, but I believe majority will be narrow.

I could be wrong though and people like TnVolunteer, Heisenberg and others could be right in that GOP picks up every single state Trump won and GOP has like 60 seats in January 2019.

[ApatheticAustrian]

2018 could be a blue wave and still be close to a republican super-senate-majority.

[jamestroll]

I could be wrong though and people like TnVolunteer, Heisenberg and others could be right in that GOP picks up every single state Trump won and GOP has like 60 seats in January 2019.

For the record: I'm not even predicting that. I just don't believe that 2018 will suddenly be a Democratic wave year and that every red state Democrat (especially liberal ones like McCaskill) will hang on just because Trump is president. I do believe that 2022 (lol) will be a much better year for them if Trump gets reelected.

It may or may not be a Democratic year. Who knows.

And McCaskill is not liberal, look at her voting record. She is probably next to Manchin in conservatism.

Actually you did predict around 60 seats for GOP.

I'll be even "bolder": Republicans win MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WI, WV and two of PA/MI/FL/ME. Democrats barely win in either AZ or NV. R+8.

Not sure if you were serious or not, but if 2018 is a Republican wave year, that is of course possible.

[BuckeyeNut]

I could be wrong though and people like TnVolunteer, Heisenberg and others could be right in that GOP picks up every single state Trump won and GOP has like 60 seats in January 2019.

For the record: I'm not even predicting that. I just don't believe that 2018 will suddenly be a Democratic wave year and that every red state Democrat (especially liberal ones like McCaskill) will hang on just because Trump is president. I do believe that 2022 (lol) will be a much better year for them if Trump gets reelected.

It may or may not be a Democratic year. Who knows.

And McCaskill is not liberal, look at her voting record. She is probably next to Manchin in conservatism.

Actually you did predict around 60 seats for GOP.

I'll be even "bolder": Republicans win MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WI, WV and two of PA/MI/FL/ME. Democrats barely win in either AZ or NV. R+8.

Not sure if you were serious or not, but if 2018 is a Republican wave year, that is of course possible.

McCaskill is fairly liberal. On the Issues puts her decidedly to the left.

[jamestroll]

I do not care about OnTheIssues.org lmao.


McCaskill is an old fashioned conservative blue dog Democrat. She has evolved from her time in office.

She would have won in 2012 even without the rape comment. Most of the anti akins who hated Claire went libertarian.

[jamestroll]

If 2018 is a Democratic wave year, I would except them to pick either NV and AZ or both, and hold on to a majority of their red state seats.

If 2018 is a Republican wave year, I would expect the following:

I'll be even "bolder": Republicans win MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WI, WV and two of PA/MI/FL/ME. Democrats barely win in either AZ or NV. R+8.

[windjammer]

If Heitkamp doesn't run, I would move my prediction to Safe Rep

[jamestroll]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/01/this-democratic-senator-sure-sounds-like-shes-open-to-serving-in-the-trump-administration/?utm_term=.334afe28d1de

This is news.

Heitkamp may be in Trump Administration.

And all in all, it is probably for the best. Even if it costs Democrats a seat now, it has them less stretched thin to defend Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, etc in 2018.

P.S. MCCASKILL IS  NOT FAR LEFT. Look at her voting record and no ontheissues.org crap.. She is a conservadem.

[Figueira]

If Heitkamp doesn't run, I would move my prediction to Safe Rep

For North Dakota, or the Senate as a whole?

[Pericles]

Texas could be the third pickup for the Democrats. Trump won it by single digits and it is trending D. Of the Castro brothers run they might have a chance. Plus Cruz is vulnerable and may be under attack from his own party. Still, it doesn't look too plausible.  Likely R at this stage since Safe is too strong of a statement.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She was gonna have a tough race and Cramer should run and it doesn't look like the Dems will pick up Louisiana. So, Senate control isn't gonna be that much of a factor.

Dems need to hold their losses and 2020 looks like 2016 for them in AK, Iowa, NC and CO

[pikachu]

Likely R, with a net gain for Republicans of 2-3. Even then, I can see them losing a lot of House seats and governorships. 1982 might end up being an amazing parallel for 2018 (though for all of our sakes, hopefully 2020 doesn't end up being another 1984).

[Hindsight was 2020]

A funny state to watch if Trump if unpopular for the 3rd pick up for dems is Utah. Huntsman and McMullin are both considering 3rd party runs and the dems likely nom Jim Matheson has a history of winning races in Utah most expected him to lose

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If it turns out that midterms are a natural Republican advantage, not a natural out-party advantage (I think it's some of both, but mostly the former), and Trump's first two years go well, we could easily be looking at a GOP gain of 10-15 seats in the Senate, breaking a filibuster with ease (and possibly even overriding a veto).  But, a more likely scenario is a modest 3-7 seat gain, assuming Trump is polarizing in office.

[Hindsight was 2020]

If it turns out that midterms are a natural Republican advantage, not a natural out-party advantage (I think it's some of both, but mostly the former), and Trump's first two years go well, we could easily be looking at a GOP gain of 10-15 seats in the Senate, breaking a filibuster with ease (and possibly even overriding a veto).  But, a more likely scenario is a modest 3-7 seat gain, assuming Trump is polarizing in office.

I don't see how the reps can gain 7 seats if Trump is polarizing while midterms might be rep advantage I can't see an mindset that would lead to a rep turnout to give him greater control of the senate if he is not doing a good job