2018 Senate Control Rating

[Virginiá]

I don't see how the reps can gain 7 seats if Trump is polarizing while midterms might be rep advantage I can't see an mindset that would lead to a rep turnout to give him greater control of the senate if he is not doing a good job

The reason you can't see it is because his prediction is insane and is not going to happen. You have to go back over a hundred years to see midterms where the incumbent party picked up anything remotely close to 10+ Senate seats in their midterm, and even then it was mostly only a handful here and there. Post-FDR, midterm backlashes have been pretty reliable, only failing when the incumbent is super popular, and even then it's not a given (see: Eisenhower)

Maybe they can if Trump goes into 2018 with 70%+ approval rating after magically bringing back a million high-paying manufacturing jobs to the rustbelt while also personally saving 3 babies from burning houses on live TV, but if Trump is as unpopular as Obama in 2014, or worse, Republicans would probably be lucky to net a couple seats in the Senate, even with that favorable map.

I think that after 8 years of Obama and the dreaded Obama midterms, some Republicans have developed this idea that most midterms are going to be like that for them. I think it has also insulated them from the fact that a number of their prized policies are not that popular, nor are many of Trump's. Pushing unpopular policies is a big part of what generates a backlash in the first place.

[windjammer]

If Heitkamp doesn't run, I would move my prediction to Safe Rep

For North Dakota, or the Senate as a whole?

The senate as a whole.

[Virginiá]

You're way too overconfident here IMO. A 7 seat gain is really not out of the question, given how awful the map is for Democrats (Heck, if Trump was just relatively popular in the red states, it could happen (WV/ND/MO/IN/MT/OH/one other state)). Of course you need the right candidates as well.

I'm open and planning to revise my thoughts on this election as his first 2 years gets underway and we see what kind of hijinks him and Republicans find themselves up to, but as of now, if Trump has awful approval ratings even somewhat similar to his pre-bounce favorables, I 100% stand by my assertion that there will be no net gain for Republicans of that magnitude.  Democrats won all these seats 6 years ago in a good year for them, and while a number of them relied on luck or other unique conditions, it's not impossible to win most of them again if it's another decently good year. Given everything about Trump and what Paul Ryan wants to do, this definitely seems more likely than not.

I'm not just being a hack on this. It's notoriously difficult to make even moderate gains in midterms even when ones party has a popular incumbent that people actually like and trust, hence why history has few incidences of this happening. It doesn't work for me to try and consider a midterm election in a bubble where the only criteria is the map.

Frankly, a net gain of 2-4 seats in a Trump midterm would be an exceptional year for Republicans, all things considered.

[jamestroll]

I think it will be +2 to +4 GOP in 2018. But of course, I am probably wrong at this stage.

If there is any year in which an unpopular president's party could gain 5+ seats in the Senate, it is 2018. So do not discount any possibility.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Likely R; Dems are just maxed out.

Will be nice to have the opportunity to clean out some red state Dems, though, particularly the faux moderate McCasikill.

[Kingpoleon]

Arizona could go either way, esp. if Flake loses the primary(or maybe he could be Robyed into losing. Roby lost 10-15 points from 2014-2016. With the absolute R ceiling in AZ being about 55 percent, Flake is screwed if he loses that much.)

McCain never got below 55% until this year. Jane Dee Hull got >60% in 1998.

[I’m not Stu]

Likely R.

[Figueira]

I think it will be +2 to +4 GOP in 2018. But of course, I am probably wrong at this stage.

If there is any year in which an unpopular president's party could gain 5+ seats in the Senate, it is 2018. So do not discount any possibility.

I think R+3 or R+4 is a reasonable prediction. Very hard to see the Democrats do better than that.

R+2 is my current prediction.

[Vosem]

Safe R for the Senate. Only Leans R for the House, though. For the first time since 2010, a viable, logical path to a Democratic House majority exists. Because of the staggered terms in the Senate, a path to a Senate majority for the Democrats in 2018 simply doesn't. 2020 is the earliest the Senate can flip back, assuming things go well for the party.