IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[BuckeyeNut]

A key difference is that Illinois is Safe D, while Maine is Tilt D at best. Also, Rauner's state isn't 95% White. The McCaskill comparison is actually pretty good: Barring an implosion of the Republican (in MO) or Democratic (in IL) candidate, both of them will probably go down in flames (though McCaskill even more than Rauner). The only thing that could help Rauner is that gubernatorial races are less partisan, but his approval ratings aren't that great either.

I agree. Reelection for governors in states that are strongly against their party either end up as landslides in their favor or dramatic losses.

For example, Schwarzenegger vs Angelides or O'Malley vs. Ehrlich.

Sebelius 2006 or Strickland vs Kasich

Not the latter, Strickland only lost by 2 points in 2010.

[Donerail]

Lipinski to face a primary challenge.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lipinski to face a primary challenge.

Expected, but I'm confident he'll survive.

[RogueBeaver]

Pritzker's exploring. Dems gonna choose between 2 wealthy businessmen?

[Green Line]

Lipinski to face a primary challenge.

Good luck with that... He's the most beloved Congressman in the country.

[BuckeyeNut]

Y'all do realize Lipinski was a Sanders delegate, right.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Y'all do realize Lipinski was a Sanders delegate, right.

If memory serves, he voted for Sanders because Sanders won his district, not because of any personal support he had for Sanders.

[Donerail]

Pritzker's exploring. Dems gonna choose between 2 wealthy businessmen?

Sure seems like it. I'll be voting Pawar if that's the field. I do think there's an opening for a candidate like Andy Manar, who would be the sole representative from downstate in the field and who would stand a shot at consolidating labor behind his campaign.

[MAINEiac4434]

Rauner's as dead as McCaskill, why are we still debating this?

One should not count out a governor this early. Remember that this guy got reelected:

That's what Maine gets for splitting the vote.

His reelection would have still happened if Cutler didn't run in '14.

lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is Illinois, though and in an anti-Trump wave is felt it will be in Obama's homestate.

Illinois has felt the biggest dip in jobs and Rauner hasn't done much to quell the dissatifaction of the job market or declining wages in Illinois.

[heatcharger]

SIU poll has Rauner's approval rating at 36/58. Madigan at 26/61 as well.

[BuckeyeNut]

Y'all do realize Lipinski was a Sanders delegate, right.

If memory serves, he voted for Sanders because Sanders won his district, not because of any personal support he had for Sanders.

And? People appreciate that.

"Y'know, I don't like Lipinski all the time, but he supported us as a delegate, so we'll support him."

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

State Senator Daniel Biss is expected to announce shortly. Or he has some non-gubernatorial "exciting news" to announce at 10am on his Facebook page tomorrow.

My IL for Bernie friends seem to really like him. He's got a very interesting biography via his Wikipedia page, including an academic stint at my university.

[anthonyjg]

I'll probably support Biss considering how weak the rest of the field is.

SIU poll has Rauner's approval rating at 36/58. Madigan at 26/61 as well.

I was a participant in that poll!

[Donerail]

Not a big fan of Biss, despite his U of C ties - I remember he was linked to a lot of "pension reform" efforts.

[anthonyjg]

Not a big fan of Biss, despite his U of C ties - I remember he was linked to a lot of "pension reform" efforts.

He seems to have come around on that issue. Also, other than this, I've known him to be fairly progressive. Illinois really doesn't have any great candidates to run against Rauner, but I probably agree with Biss more than Kennedy and I think he would do better in a general than Pawar.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'll be supporting Daniel Biss or Ameya Pawar. I don't like the idea of this race being between two rich guys.

[Donerail]

Not a big fan of Biss, despite his U of C ties - I remember he was linked to a lot of "pension reform" efforts.

He seems to have come around on that issue. Also, other than this, I've known him to be fairly progressive. Illinois really doesn't have any great candidates to run against Rauner, but I probably agree with Biss more than Kennedy and I think he would do better in a general than Pawar.

I'm holding out hope for Andy Manar, who has a proven record of winning downstate. He's also made a name as a friend of labor, engineered a good plan on school funding, and has made automatic voter registration one of his signature issues in Springfield.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not a big fan of Biss, despite his U of C ties - I remember he was linked to a lot of "pension reform" efforts.

He seems to have come around on that issue. Also, other than this, I've known him to be fairly progressive. Illinois really doesn't have any great candidates to run against Rauner, but I probably agree with Biss more than Kennedy and I think he would do better in a general than Pawar.

I'm holding out hope for Andy Manar, who has a proven record of winning downstate. He's also made a name as a friend of labor, engineered a good plan on school funding, and has made automatic voter registration one of his signature issues in Springfield.

I'd rather Manar run against Rodney Davis, tbh.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Daniel Biss is officially running.

Endorsed.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not a big fan of Biss, despite his U of C ties - I remember he was linked to a lot of "pension reform" efforts.

He seems to have come around on that issue. Also, other than this, I've known him to be fairly progressive. Illinois really doesn't have any great candidates to run against Rauner, but I probably agree with Biss more than Kennedy and I think he would do better in a general than Pawar.

I'm holding out hope for Andy Manar, who has a proven record of winning downstate. He's also made a name as a friend of labor, engineered a good plan on school funding, and has made automatic voter registration one of his signature issues in Springfield.

I'd rather Manar run against Rodney Davis, tbh.

Davis isn't beatable, sorry.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not a big fan of Biss, despite his U of C ties - I remember he was linked to a lot of "pension reform" efforts.

He seems to have come around on that issue. Also, other than this, I've known him to be fairly progressive. Illinois really doesn't have any great candidates to run against Rauner, but I probably agree with Biss more than Kennedy and I think he would do better in a general than Pawar.

I'm holding out hope for Andy Manar, who has a proven record of winning downstate. He's also made a name as a friend of labor, engineered a good plan on school funding, and has made automatic voter registration one of his signature issues in Springfield.

I'd rather Manar run against Rodney Davis, tbh.

Davis isn't beatable, sorry.

Manar could definitely beat Davis, especially in a good Democratic year, sorry.

[Illiniwek]

I don't see Davis losing ever with the districts drawn as they currently are. But if the Democrats are going to try then they are going to need to get some stronger candidates in there.

[The Other Castro]

J.B. Pritzker is officially running.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-06/billionaire-pritzker-joins-race-to-save-debt-ravaged-illinois

[KingSweden]

I think it'll be Kennedy name/gloss vs Pritzker $/institutional connex. It'll be interesting either way