IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

muon2
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	Re: IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread « Reply #25 on: December 23, 2016, 11:59:07 AM »
	« edited: January 23, 2017, 06:34:37 PM by muon2 »

Quote from: Jimmie on December 23, 2016, 11:20:31 AM

Quote from: muon2 on December 23, 2016, 09:42:21 AM

IL continues to lose population faster than any other state, primarily due to outmigration to other states (over 500K net loss since 2010). The Gallup poll of 2013 identified that 50% of IL residents would move out if they could - the highest percent in the US. A similar poll this fall from the Paul Simon Pubic Policy Institute put the percentage who want to leave IL at 47%. This attitude was present under Quinn, and hasn't changed.

Rauner will say he has a plan to change that, but the Dems have blocked it. He does have a plan, and it is bold and far-reaching, and parts may not even work, but its a plan. His plan involves a lot of anti-union elements as well as curbs on legislative power. Those parts are toxic to a lot of the Dems. So far under Rauner the Dems have only proposed the same sorts of programs and spending they did under Quinn - ie no change as far as many voters are concerned. But the poll numbers say change is demanded, and for the first time in most people's memory the Pubs picked up legislative seats in a presidential year.

Who ever the Dems nominate for Gov is going to have to come to grips with the facts above. They don't have to espouse the Rauner agenda, but they can't rehash Quinn either if they plan to succeed. They are going to have to be as bold as Rauner and risk some pushback from key groups. But there are Dem models out there from MN to CA that a candidate could run on. So far, none have dared. That could cost them in 2018.

Rauner has been a disappointment to me, but I admit it is way to early to count him out. Especially for a gubernatorial bid. Illinois is a Midwestern state. Midwestern state= generally great chances of a swing. Two years ago, they elected Rauner. Less then two months ago, it was the minority of states that swung Democratic on the Presidential level.

What curbs on legislative power is Rauner wanting to run on? As far as anti-union legislation, is this for public sector unions or all unions? I dislike public sector unions as a rule.

On top of all that, why do you think half of Illinois residents want to move out? When I was visit Chicagoland it seemed like heaven on earth to me. I realize that being a tourist versus resident are two different things.

The two main curbs on legislative power that Rauner seeks are term limits and redistricting reform. Both poll well over 70% with broad bipartisan support. Both require constitutional amendments that the Gov has no role in proposing. Term limits can only be done by legislative action - limiting their future, since an amendment could likely not be retroactive.

Rauner surprised a lot of observers by coming out against all union power, not just in the public sector. His public sector initiatives have been pushed more forcefully and would impact collective bargaining directly. But he'd like to end the use of prevailing wage which affects private-sector unions on public projects. He initially pushed hard for right-to-work but that hasn't been part of his agenda since May 2015, nonetheless that push cost him a lot of support from the private-sector unions.

IL residents have been itching to get out since the end of the last decade. Property taxes are the highest in the nation, and they don't think they are getting enough value for those local taxes. Suburban taxpayers feel like they spend too much on Chicago, but see little improvement, and now Chicago has had the largest property tax hike in its history, too. Chicago does look great near the Loop and there a whole lot going on as finally the tech economy has come around. However a lot of that improvement in Chicago's center came at the expense of the neighborhoods, and Emanuel had a real reelection fight in 2015 against a substitute candidate. As the murder rate has climbed and school scores have dropped, it only reinforced the sense that the taxpayers aren't getting enough value from government.

Then the Great Recession brought a stagnation in middle class private sector jobs, particularly in manufacturing and other less specialized fields. Those businesses didn't come back to IL in the same way they did other Midwestern states as the recession ended. When asked businesses say they are looking for signal that things are going to change, and then be stable - neither of which has happened this decade. So, when housing prices came back above water after the recession, the outflow to other states kicked up.

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