Is Trump hurting Republicans' long time prospect?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

GA+TX+NC+AZ+FL > MN+WI+OH+NH+ME+PA+WI+IA+IL (and that one is the biggest stretch orlf either list, as it trended D in 2016 and the rurals are shrinking like crazy).

-Florida trended R in 2016, though. It's probably the most important of the swing states.

Well then FL and IL basically cancel each other out from that list, but his analysis overall still applies.

-Yeah; but Florida gained electoral votes and IL lost them following the 2010 census (same will happen in 2020) so the canceling out is not total. FL already has nine more electoral votes than IL, the advantage will only grow. Of course, the same can be said of Texas, which trended strongly D in 2016.

look at this map: http://www.270towin.com/maps/jmZno

If Republicans continue to alienate hispanics, this is probably the best possible scenario they could ever hope for in 25 years.

Eh, that's where we disagree. Florida will still be winnable for Republicans, but it would require them to change away from Trumpism/nativism.

And I think we should've learned from 2016 that no party is guaranteed a win, ever. But that doesn't change the fact that it will be much harder for R's to actually win in the future, unless they can co-opt something to attract Millennials, like student loan forgiveness, or actually giving a  about the environment.

-The environment might be a minor issue; student loan forgiveness is a nutty idea. I'm a millennial; do I care about student loan debt forgiveness? No. I'm in favor of cheaper higher education, not blowing up the national debt.

I was just throwing out ideas, and education cost reform was one of them. That's probably a big reason why Millennials are so lopsidedly Democratic--probably because Dems actually give them lip service to it while a lot of Republicans just act like its a non-issue when it clearly is.

-The most popular Republican candidates among millennials are far-right dudes like Ron Paul and Lyin' Ted Cruz. The most popular Dem candidates among millennials are reformists like Bernie and Barry O. Of course, White millennials are not the future of the Democratic Party, for better or worse (probably worse; but maybe I say this because I'm a White millennial).

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

GA+TX+NC+AZ+FL > MN+WI+OH+NH+ME+PA+WI+IA+IL (and that one is the biggest stretch orlf either list, as it trended D in 2016 and the rurals are shrinking like crazy).

-Florida trended R in 2016, though. It's probably the most important of the swing states.

Well then FL and IL basically cancel each other out from that list, but his analysis overall still applies.

-Yeah; but Florida gained electoral votes and IL lost them following the 2010 census (same will happen in 2020) so the canceling out is not total. FL already has nine more electoral votes than IL, the advantage will only grow. Of course, the same can be said of Texas, which trended strongly D in 2016.

look at this map: http://www.270towin.com/maps/jmZno

If Republicans continue to alienate hispanics, this is probably the best possible scenario they could ever hope for in 25 years.

Eh, that's where we disagree. Florida will still be winnable for Republicans, but it would require them to change away from Trumpism/nativism.

And I think we should've learned from 2016 that no party is guaranteed a win, ever. But that doesn't change the fact that it will be much harder for R's to actually win in the future, unless they can co-opt something to attract Millennials, like student loan forgiveness, or actually giving a  about the environment.

-Trump won every county but one in the Florida primary. Florida loves Trumpism.

You're not even addressing what I'm f-ing talking about. And no, primary electorates =/= general electorates.

-How did Trump do in the Atlanta suburbs in the primary? In the general?

How did Trump do in southwestern Wisconsin in the primary? In the general?

Yes; the primary vote is relevant, though not decisive. If Florida loved Liddle Marco, they'd have picked him.