Honest question: Will there be an election in 2020?
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  Honest question: Will there be an election in 2020?
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Author Topic: Honest question: Will there be an election in 2020?  (Read 5013 times)
oraclebones
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« on: November 28, 2016, 12:01:52 AM »

What are the odds that Trump brings us down a path of genuine authoritarianism and there is either no election in 2020 or only a nominal election?

Does anyone else fear this? I wouldn't put it at more likely than not, but I would put it forward as having a nontrivial chance of happening.

Alternate but related theories are that Trump loses in 2020 but refuses to cede power, or that he wins in 2020 then refuses to cede power even after his second term is finished.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2016, 12:13:10 AM »

I have little doubt he will just be a bad president by our standards and not the end but I will admit it's scary how he in theory could purge dems from the gov't or crackdown on any press that is critical of him with the blessing of 30-35% of the nation who get their news solely from Fox/Drudge/Brietbart or Facebook
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2016, 01:16:56 AM »

I have no doubt that many Republicans would love to eliminate our form of democracy and install a rubber stamp government, but it's hard to imagine how they'll implement such a thing, unless there's some kind of armed fascist uprising.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2016, 01:21:20 AM »

Possible tricks:

1. Legislation that regulates the Democratic Party so that it will be ineffective.
2. Putting property qualifications on voting.
3. Mandating that people vote as their employers dictate.
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oraclebones
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« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2016, 01:26:29 AM »

Trump has shown himself to be a master at manipulating people through messaging, and the mainstream media has shown itself to be supremely inept and cowardly in confronting his constant stream of falsehoods. A completely cowed media is a good first step towards authoritarianism, and he's practically there.

The American public has also shown that it, by and large, has no awareness of history and no real will to resist in any meaningful way, so...
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: November 28, 2016, 01:35:46 AM »

Of course!



/s

But seriously, of course there will be.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #6 on: November 28, 2016, 04:49:15 AM »

the most likely outcome imo would be that there's no radical change to the structure of elections, but a strong continuation of existing republican voter-suppression schemes
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Gary J
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« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2016, 07:48:04 AM »

When a government has been functioning in a more or less orderly way, for over two centuries, it is difficult to imagine it not continuing. However constitutional orders do sometimes break down, after being stable for a long time.

It may be that, like Rome under the early Emperors, the forms of republican government will be preserved but that real power will be exercised outside the traditional government structure. In Rome the Senate continued to meet, the Consuls and other officers continued to be elected, but the Emperor (whether or not he held formal office) was the effective ruler.

The existence of an Emperor became the core of the government, so that thereafter no serious attempt was ever made to re-establish functioning republican government.

At the end of the day an existing government will be preserved if people are prepared to follow it. If not something new will eventually emerge.

 
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2016, 08:41:20 AM »

I have no doubt that many Republicans would love to eliminate our form of democracy and install a rubber stamp government, but it's hard to imagine how they'll implement such a thing, unless there's some kind of armed fascist uprising.
The irony of how similar this sounds to Republicans' words in recent years is probably lost on you.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2016, 10:45:32 AM »

There will be, for sure. The constitution is strong enough. I fully trust this great document. However, my gut feeling tells me, that there won’t be a President Drumpf by that time. Just a gut feeling, no prediction. I just say the world that begins with an I and ends with -ment.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2016, 03:20:45 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2016, 03:25:13 PM by Ronnie »

I have no doubt that many Republicans would love to eliminate our form of democracy and install a rubber stamp government, but it's hard to imagine how they'll implement such a thing, unless there's some kind of armed fascist uprising.
The irony of how similar this sounds to Republicans' words in recent years is probably lost on you.

Democrats aren't the ones who try to prevent people from voting and agonize whenever "certain" constituencies turn out to the polls.  Try again.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2016, 03:25:51 PM »

"The fundamentals of our democracy are strong."

thanks McCain
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2016, 03:38:40 PM »

Of course there will be. If Trump actually tries to turn this country into a dictatorship, enough people will stand against him to prevent that from actually happening. I was wrong to assume that this country could not elect Trump, but I do believe that there are enough people in this country who will not stand for doing away with elections.
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oraclebones
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« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2016, 08:12:02 PM »

The constitution is strong enough. I fully trust this great document.

Well, at least someone does. It terms of the mechanics of government (e.g. having a presidency, a House of Representatives, a Senate), I think major portions of the constitution have outlived their usefulness. A multi-party parliamentary system would be much better for this country at this point (something I've been saying before Trump began his campaign). And as the presidencies of the past, oh say, 200+ years have shown, constitutional rights can easily be trampled upon, particularly in times of crisis.

To fully trust a document does not really make sense to me, because it's just a piece of paper.  It is an inanimate object. What matters is people choosing to uphold it and being willing to stick to it in difficult times as well as in easy times. That so many people would vote for an utter narcissist, a person who claims to believe in God but who literally couldn't name a single time he has asked God for forgiveness, someone who has no positions and happily spews lies, who himself has shown a complete disregard for the constitution, gives me little to no faith in the public's willingness to fight for much of anything.

Again, not saying I think authoritarianism is more likely than not, but it seems like a distinct , if small, possibility.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2016, 08:13:12 PM »

Of course there will be. If Trump actually tries to turn this country into a dictatorship, enough people will stand against him to prevent that from actually happening. I was wrong to assume that this country could not elect Trump, but I do believe that there are enough people in this country who will not stand for doing away with elections.

I have enough hope that all liberals vacate the United States of America permamently.
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oraclebones
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« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2016, 08:27:42 PM »

I was wrong to assume that this country could not elect Trump

Exactly. Not so much about you in particular, but that so many in general thought this country could not elect Trump. He was going to be on the ballot, so why would anyone think it's impossible? This is a two-party system!

I do believe that there are enough people in this country who will not stand for doing away with elections.

He wouldn't need to do away with elections entirely. Russia still has elections. Putin's United Russia party most recently won three-quarters of the seats in the State Duma.
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Seneca
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« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2016, 10:27:59 PM »

There will almost certainly be the pageantry of an election. Whether it is a free and open election (at least in the sense that recent US elections have been free and open) is questionable. It is not difficult to imagine a combination of voter suppression legislation and repression against political opposition turning 2020 into the sort of "managed election" that has characterized many despotisms across history.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2016, 10:37:15 PM »

Our government will not falter in their task. Our people will not shirk from their duty. I truly hope and believe we will overcome this. We have overcome far worse.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2016, 10:48:50 PM »

Think of every right-wing evil not specifically precluded by the Constitution of a Supreme Court ruling, and consider it possible. That is the Trump Administration we face.
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oraclebones
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« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2016, 12:52:59 AM »


I appreciate the measured optimism. But when have we faced an incoming president so manifestly bereft of personal or public morality as Trump, and thus as manifestly dangerous as Trump? As dreadful a president I think Bush 43 ended up being, at least he ran on the idea of compassionate conservatism. Trump ran on the idea of hateful, angry populism. When have we overcome anything like that? And thanks to Democratic and Republican presidents alike, the executive has more power now than it ever did. Power that will soon be, God help us, in the hands of Donald Trump.

If our democracy makes it to 2020 not irreparably damaged, it will be through some miracle--and I do not say a miracle is impossible.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #20 on: November 30, 2016, 08:04:01 AM »

He wouldn't need to do away with elections entirely. Russia still has elections. Putin's United Russia party most recently won three-quarters of the seats in the State Duma.
Yup. The US will almost certainly have a presidential election in 2020 as even Russia has "elections". The question is what extent of voter suppression and downright fixing of the results we will see. In any case, I'm pretty sure the democrat needs to win comfortably to overcome this.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #21 on: November 30, 2016, 06:37:20 PM »

I read a book called "2052" a couple months back. The book was written in 2012. The author was trying to predict the future, always a perilous task.

One prediction he made was that the US would eventually accept more authoritarian leadership. The idea is that internal problems and international crises would create the political environment for it. Some of these problems include climate change, rising terrorism, rising immigration, a generally less livable planet.

Many will disagree, but it seems to clear to me that this is exactly what is happening. Trump's campaign included a lot of nods to authoritarianism, and I expect it continue under his leadership. Not sure what that means for 2020, but this is a legitimate conversation moving forward.
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angus
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« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2016, 06:48:14 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2016, 07:23:13 PM by angus »

there won’t be a President Drumpf by that time.

haha.  That's what I was thinking as well.  He may end up getting himself impeached, but I think he'll resign.  Not just under pressure to avoid impeachment either.  I think he'll grow bored with this gig long before the general election of 2020.  

I hope that's not the case--peaceful transfer of power after four or eight years of freedom and prosperity would be preferable to me, regardless of the identity of the president--but my hunch is that he'll get tired of the scrutiny and of the responsibility pretty quickly and we'll end up with President Pence at some point before the election of 2020.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: November 30, 2016, 08:26:22 PM »

there won’t be a President Drumpf by that time.

haha.  That's what I was thinking as well.  He may end up getting himself impeached, but I think he'll resign.  Not just under pressure to avoid impeachment either.  I think he'll grow bored with this gig long before the general election of 2020. 

I hope that's not the case--peaceful transfer of power after four or eight years of freedom and prosperity would be preferable to me, regardless of the identity of the president--but my hunch is that he'll get tired of the scrutiny and of the responsibility pretty quickly and we'll end up with President Pence at some point before the election of 2020.



Freedom and prosperity? I expect neither. There will be prosperity, but only for a very small part of the population who really rules America. We will have the freedom to recognize Donald Trump as the man who saved America... Cubans had that freedom under Fidel Castro, too. Donald Trump wants more power for the FBI to hack the Internet... if it is for detecting a terrorist threat or someone doing crime on the Internet such as securities fraud or copyright violations, OK. But if it is against dissent, then welcome to China.

Having shown himself an extremist and acting erratically he would be one-and-done in a well-functioning democracy even if he got elected.  I just can't be sure that we will have a functioning democracy in 2020. 

Be thankful that people like me protest and demonstrate against the excesses of the President and his monolithic, subservient Party. Such is the proof of freedom being alive in America.   
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JJC
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« Reply #24 on: November 30, 2016, 09:28:46 PM »

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