Honest question: Will there be an election in 2020?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Yes. There will be elections. Life will continue. In fact, liberals will be thanking God for fifty years for Donald Trump, because he will be prove an effective punching bag to run against. Sort of how liberals thank God for Herbert Hoover.

We have more to fear on the authoritarian score from someone who wins a wide majority and will be backed by the (angry) rising majority coalition in this country and will have a Congress to go with him. Aka, nobody from the Right who will be able to create that kind of coalition and plenty of people on the Left who can.

That's actually a good point, and partly why I am not a Democrat (yet). I'm skeptical of one party having too much unchecked power, and while Republicans have it now (and it does truly horrify the sh**t out of me, even as a straight white male planning on joining the Navy with an Ivy League degree in hand, I realize I have nothing to lose personally. But I actually think this is beginning to resemble fascism.), Democrats are very likely to have it in the future (and a much more dominant majority, too).

How do Republicans not see that their day of reckoning is coming?  It's pretty simple... they consistently get X (very low) % of the minority vote.  The minority vote grows by X % every year.  They can win an election every now and then, like Trump (who got about 3 million votes less than Clinton) but their long term numbers are going to be disastrous. 

Oh, I 100% agree. Many of them are operating under some delusion that those Millennials will "warm" to them with age (the "you become conservative with age" myth), or some stupid sh**t like that. Watch Fox News sometimes for a laugh, and someone is bound to bring it up every now and then.

-Psst... the answer for the Republican Party is ending DACA and rapidly moving to an immigration restrictionist posture.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Yeah, it's hard to reach out to minorities and urban people in general when 75% of their legislative and congressional seats are rural-based. So there might be truth to what you're saying.

Also, they seem to be relying on higher margins in rural areas now.  So they will basically face the reverse problem of Democrats who are highly concentrated in cities. 

Yup. Look at California. Republicans are becoming the self-packed party in that state. It also has the potential to happen in Texas over the next few decades, particularly if Democrats make inroads in soon-to-be minority majority Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Williamson, and Hays Counties. When that happens (and given how fast Gwinnett County, GA swung after going majority-minority, I think it's more a question of "when", not "if" these counties flip), Republicans could well be relegated to exurban/rural seats that vote 70+% GOP. Exactly what happened in California post-2004 through now.

-Texas is not California; compare rents, marriage rates, and White fertility rates.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Yeah, it's hard to reach out to minorities and urban people in general when 75% of their legislative and congressional seats are rural-based. So there might be truth to what you're saying.

Also, they seem to be relying on higher margins in rural areas now.  So they will basically face the reverse problem of Democrats who are highly concentrated in cities. 

Yup. Look at California. Republicans are becoming the self-packed party in that state. It also has the potential to happen in Texas over the next few decades, particularly if Democrats make inroads in soon-to-be minority majority Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Williamson, and Hays Counties. When that happens (and given how fast Gwinnett County, GA swung after going majority-minority, I think it's more a question of "when", not "if" these counties flip), Republicans could well be relegated to exurban/rural seats that vote 70+% GOP. Exactly what happened in California post-2004 through now.

-Texas is not California; compare rents, marriage rates, and White fertility rates.

It shares a lot of the characteristics of California 20 years ago... A lot of big growing cities... a booming minority population... a lot of in and out transplants from other states...  Why wouldn't Texas follow what happened in California over that time period?

-Fewer residential construction restrictions to repress the family.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

The same Texas that went from 57-41% Romney to 52-43% Trump, with the Houston, Dallas, and Ft. Worth areas trending Democratic?

Okay then.

I'm assuming you're agreeing with me? The similarities to California are strikingly similar. Texas is basically where California was in the 80's. I think my scenario would take a few decades to pan out, but the potential is very much there.

Yes, I was. I was also responding to EHarding.

I need to take a look at why Dallas and Houston shifted Democratic as did Ft. Worth. It might be interesting to evaluate how these cities are ethnically and income wise.

-Very simple: the GOP became the party of family values, which were found more in the Jimmy Carter-voting Texas rurals than in its former suburban and urban bastions. Look at Ted Cruz's vote share in the Texas primary.

Also, see Griffin's map of the Texas White Vote:
https://fusiontables.googleusercontent.com/fusiontables/embedviz?q=select+col7+from+1HOxybMzharikbGfEtBMi8QYP5z_ydsW6eZMmsP6w&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=41.51180023299375&lng=-88.84258676562496&t=1&z=5&l=col7&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Yeah, it's hard to reach out to minorities and urban people in general when 75% of their legislative and congressional seats are rural-based. So there might be truth to what you're saying.

Also, they seem to be relying on higher margins in rural areas now.  So they will basically face the reverse problem of Democrats who are highly concentrated in cities. 

Yup. Look at California. Republicans are becoming the self-packed party in that state. It also has the potential to happen in Texas over the next few decades, particularly if Democrats make inroads in soon-to-be minority majority Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Williamson, and Hays Counties. When that happens (and given how fast Gwinnett County, GA swung after going majority-minority, I think it's more a question of "when", not "if" these counties flip), Republicans could well be relegated to exurban/rural seats that vote 70+% GOP. Exactly what happened in California post-2004 through now.

-Texas is not California; compare rents, marriage rates, and White fertility rates.

It shares a lot of the characteristics of California 20 years ago... A lot of big growing cities... a booming minority population... a lot of in and out transplants from other states...  Why wouldn't Texas follow what happened in California over that time period?

-Fewer residential construction restrictions to repress the family.

I think you read far too into general societal constructs as impacting politics.  Housing size, number of marriages, etc. etc. may have some impact at the margins, but you're not recognizing that there is a much much bigger picture at work here... which is the direct correlation because race and education levels and how people vote... and the GOP is not winning the segments of the population that are growing.

-Have you read Steve Sailer's work on the marriage gap?

http://www.unz.com/isteve/how-the-marriage-gap-painted-the-map-red-or-blue-from-2000-thru-2012/