Tony Blair in 2010

[Sir Mohamed]

What if Tony Blair had stayed in office and ran again in 2010?

[Phony Moderate]

Popular vote:

Con - 40% (more of a 'TIME FOR CHANGE' factor, plus their rhetoric about the deficit would be a bit lighter)
Lab - 27%
Lib Dems - 24%

In seat terms probably a Tory majority of 50-70. Lib Dems continue to make impressive progress against Labour (as they did in 2005) in high student and/or ethnic minority seats.

[Slow Learner]

A paper thin Labour majority, since it is physically impossible for Tony Blair to be Labour leader and not win a majority.

[Kingpoleon]

I suspect a Labor majority(of a small number) or a minority government with minor supply and confidence from some Greens, some of SNP, and some left-leaning Liberal Democrats.

I assume two or three years in, Blair would retire. Whatever the case, then, I think Labor would shift left as the Greens would rise in the polls and the Conservatives shift right as UKIP would rise in the polls. That would be the ideal setting for the Liberal Democrats to try to get a huge number of seats.

[Phony Moderate]

I suspect a Labor majority(of a small number) or a minority government with minor supply and confidence from some Greens, some of SNP, and some left-leaning Liberal Democrats.

Not a chance. Labour were well behind when he left office in 2007 and his personal ratings were dire. And this was prior to both the financial crisis and the expenses' scandal, neither of which he would of come out of well. Blair was good at winning elections, but so was Brian Mulroney, and no one argues that the latter would have won in 1993.

[Intell]

No way, that labour would win.

[IceAgeComing]

Tory majority of around 50; the Lib Dems doing better and maybe getting the seat numbers that some of the polls were saying in 2010 (around 80-90).  Even if a Labour/Lib Dem coalition was possible Blair wouldn't have led it; Brown leaving was a red line in 2010 and there's no reason to believe that they'd have been kinder for Blair.

There's no guarantee that the PLP wouldn't have voted him out during the financial crisis though; he was growing less popular by the day.