OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Rjjr77]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

What would you rate that?

I think LaRose would ultimately win, but it could become the kind of primary that does some GE damage to whoever wins.  Btw, I really don't see Reece running for SoS, I've heard no talk about that and it'd be a pretty bad career move since (unlike Clyde) she has no chance of wining statewide and most Democrats know it.

Clyde is far from some power house, as for her not being mentioned, she's been rumored to run for years for higher office. As for it being a bad career move, she's got nowhere else to run.
And media outlets have mentioned her:
http://wvxu.org/post/ohio-red-blue-or-purple-2018-election-will-decide#stream/0

http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2016/07/27/Ohio-delegation-considers-its-options-for-state-offices-Party-officials-look-to-future-of-its-campaigns.html

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/07/for_ohio_democrats_the_2018_gu.html

[Rjjr77]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

It's comfortable in that seat, he hasn't had to run a tough election in years.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

What would you rate that?

I think LaRose would ultimately win, but it could become the kind of primary that does some GE damage to whoever wins.  Btw, I really don't see Reece running for SoS, I've heard no talk about that and it'd be a pretty bad career move since (unlike Clyde) she has no chance of wining statewide and most Democrats know it.

Clyde is far from some power house, as for her not being mentioned, she's been rumored to run for years for higher office. As for it being a bad career move, she's got nowhere else to run.
And media outlets have mentioned her:
http://wvxu.org/post/ohio-red-blue-or-purple-2018-election-will-decide#stream/0

http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2016/07/27/Ohio-delegation-considers-its-options-for-state-offices-Party-officials-look-to-future-of-its-campaigns.html

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/07/for_ohio_democrats_the_2018_gu.html

Clyde is electable statewide, Reece isn't; I never said the former was a power house.  Reece may have nowhere else to run this cycle, but she's fine long-term if she sits one cycle out.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

His bid for House Minority Leader went decently this year, I'm guessing he wants to take Pelosi's place when she retires?

Still, he really should run for governor. I can honestly see him being a future presidential candidate.

[Rjjr77]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

What would you rate that?

I think LaRose would ultimately win, but it could become the kind of primary that does some GE damage to whoever wins.  Btw, I really don't see Reece running for SoS, I've heard no talk about that and it'd be a pretty bad career move since (unlike Clyde) she has no chance of wining statewide and most Democrats know it.

Clyde is far from some power house, as for her not being mentioned, she's been rumored to run for years for higher office. As for it being a bad career move, she's got nowhere else to run.
And media outlets have mentioned her:
http://wvxu.org/post/ohio-red-blue-or-purple-2018-election-will-decide#stream/0

http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2016/07/27/Ohio-delegation-considers-its-options-for-state-offices-Party-officials-look-to-future-of-its-campaigns.html

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/07/for_ohio_democrats_the_2018_gu.html

Clyde is electable statewide, Reece isn't; I never said the former was a power house.  Reece may have nowhere else to run this cycle, but she's fine long-term if she sits one cycle out.

Is Clyde electable statewide? We'll have to see, I'd argue Reece brings more to the table energy and regionally.

how is she fine if she sits a cycle out? She couldn't run for senate until 2024, and there'd be a brand new person in her house seat. She might take a swing at commissioner but that guarantees her nothing for the future.

[Vega]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

I mean, he's probably going to be in Leadership once Pelosi, Hoyer, and Clyburn leave, which will be sooner rather than later.

I wouldn't leave the House if I were him. He's almost in the top 100 in House Seniority rank, and is barely 40.

[BuckeyeNut]

A new piece in The Plain Dealer notes that, if Renacci does run for Governor, that Republicans Frank LaRose and Mary Taylor live in the district, as well as former Democratic Congresswoman Betty Sutton; who put up a good fight against Renacci in 2012.

[Rjjr77]

A new piece in The Plain Dealer notes that, if Renacci does run for Governor, that Republicans Frank LaRose and Mary Taylor live in the district, as well as former Democratic Congresswoman Betty Sutton; who put up a good fight against Renacci in 2012.

As well as state reps Schuring (who ran in '08), Hagan, and Patton. Could be an interesting primary were Renacci to throw in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope he runs D+1 if he runs.

[Blackacre]

I hope he runs too. (Of course, if he doesn't, we can always get ahold of Richard Cordray )

[BuckeyeNut]

Tim Ryan just endorsed Jaime Harrison for DNC Chair on his Facebook.

[Rjjr77]

Tim Ryan just endorsed Jaime Harrison for DNC Chair on his Facebook.

Hard to read anything about this for the state race

[BuckeyeNut]

Dettelbach did a 25-minute sit-down interview on the Ohio Democratic Podcast.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

Not really. Ryan could easily wind up in the mold of Kaptur, that is to say, a House lifer. He got into a safe Congressional seat at the age of 29, what's his actual incentive to seek statewide office? He will, eventually, be Chairman of the Appropriations Committee if he sticks around, or he could wind up as Speaker.

I think speakership is pretty likely. The Progressives are getting much stronger than before, and when the Democrats retake the House there may be a lot of pressure on the Representatives to choose a Speaker paltable to their base. Ryan would be a leading candidate. I do think though, that even a failed run for Governor, if he campaigns decently, could keep him popular and increase his name ID. That would be a net positive.

[Rjjr77]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

Not really. Ryan could easily wind up in the mold of Kaptur, that is to say, a House lifer. He got into a safe Congressional seat at the age of 29, what's his actual incentive to seek statewide office? He will, eventually, be Chairman of the Appropriations Committee if he sticks around, or he could wind up as Speaker.

I think speakership is pretty likely. The Progressives are getting much stronger than before, and when the Democrats retake the House there may be a lot of pressure on the Representatives to choose a Speaker paltable to their base. Ryan would be a leading candidate. I do think though, that even a failed run for Governor, if he campaigns decently, could keep him popular and increase his name ID. That would be a net positive.

If he runs for governor he's not getting that seat back. There are two popular Ds salavating for him to step aside

[BuckeyeNut]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

Not really. Ryan could easily wind up in the mold of Kaptur, that is to say, a House lifer. He got into a safe Congressional seat at the age of 29, what's his actual incentive to seek statewide office? He will, eventually, be Chairman of the Appropriations Committee if he sticks around, or he could wind up as Speaker.

I think speakership is pretty likely. The Progressives are getting much stronger than before, and when the Democrats retake the House there may be a lot of pressure on the Representatives to choose a Speaker paltable to their base. Ryan would be a leading candidate. I do think though, that even a failed run for Governor, if he campaigns decently, could keep him popular and increase his name ID. That would be a net positive.

If he runs for governor he's not getting that seat back. There are two popular Ds salavating for him to step aside.

He wouldn't get his seat back, but depending how it went, he could challenge Portman in 2022. Though again, I think he's staying put at this point.

[Badger]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

Not really. Ryan could easily wind up in the mold of Kaptur, that is to say, a House lifer. He got into a safe Congressional seat at the age of 29, what's his actual incentive to seek statewide office? He will, eventually, be Chairman of the Appropriations Committee if he sticks around, or he could wind up as Speaker.

I think speakership is pretty likely. The Progressives are getting much stronger than before, and when the Democrats retake the House there may be a lot of pressure on the Representatives to choose a Speaker paltable to their base. Ryan would be a leading candidate. I do think though, that even a failed run for Governor, if he campaigns decently, could keep him popular and increase his name ID. That would be a net positive.

If he runs for governor he's not getting that seat back. There are two popular Ds salavating for him to step aside

Just curious, who?

[Rjjr77]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

Not really. Ryan could easily wind up in the mold of Kaptur, that is to say, a House lifer. He got into a safe Congressional seat at the age of 29, what's his actual incentive to seek statewide office? He will, eventually, be Chairman of the Appropriations Committee if he sticks around, or he could wind up as Speaker.

I think speakership is pretty likely. The Progressives are getting much stronger than before, and when the Democrats retake the House there may be a lot of pressure on the Representatives to choose a Speaker paltable to their base. Ryan would be a leading candidate. I do think though, that even a failed run for Governor, if he campaigns decently, could keep him popular and increase his name ID. That would be a net positive.

If he runs for governor he's not getting that seat back. There are two popular Ds salavating for him to step aside

Just curious, who?

Schiavoni and williams

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Tim Ryan just endorsed Jaime Harrison for DNC Chair on his Facebook.

Hard to read anything about this for the state race

Borrowing the #analysis from a convo with Buckeye, but if he were about to run statewide it's unlikely he would A) endorse a DC lobbyist or B) annoy the Ellison contingent in the public by endorsing someone other than him. If this is a calculated rather than a personal move, it indicates he's not running for anything hard anytime soon.

[Rjjr77]

Tim Ryan just endorsed Jaime Harrison for DNC Chair on his Facebook.

Hard to read anything about this for the state race

Borrowing the #analysis from a convo with Buckeye, but if he were about to run statewide it's unlikely he would A) endorse a DC lobbyist or B) annoy the Ellison contingent in the public by endorsing someone other than him. If this is a calculated rather than a personal move, it indicates he's not running for anything hard anytime soon.

Don't think it makes much of a difference for a statewide election like governor, and I don't think it sways Jay inslee (who is far more important than the dnc in a race like this).

As for the "Ellison contingent" don't think they will care. If Ryan runs there will be no serious challenger to him in a primary, the ODP and the DGA will rally around him.

[BuckeyeNut]

To contradict some points I made in conversation with Chickenhawk, there is a possibility that it's about race. Say, if Nina Turner runs for Governor or something. And in the press conference where Ryan endorsed Harrison, so did Congresswoman Fudge.

Meanwhile, Mayor Whaley and Governor Strickland have endorsed Buttigieg.

So far the only Ohio DNC member on the record for Perez is ODP Chair Pepper.

[Rjjr77]

To contradict some points I made in conversation with Chickenhawk, there is a possibility that it's about race. Say, if Nina Turner runs for Governor or something. And in the press conference where Ryan endorsed Harrison, so did Congresswoman Fudge.

Meanwhile, Mayor Whaley and Governor Strickland have endorsed Buttigieg.

So far the only Ohio DNC member on the record for Perez is ODP Chair Pepper.

Any word on where Sutton falls? She's looking like the strongest D after Ryan, since I think Cordray won't make it back in time to launch a campaign

[BuckeyeNut]

To contradict some points I made in conversation with Chickenhawk, there is a possibility that it's about race. Say, if Nina Turner runs for Governor or something. And in the press conference where Ryan endorsed Harrison, so did Congresswoman Fudge.

Meanwhile, Mayor Whaley and Governor Strickland have endorsed Buttigieg.

So far the only Ohio DNC member on the record for Perez is ODP Chair Pepper.

Any word on where Sutton falls? She's looking like the strongest D after Ryan, since I think Cordray won't make it back in time to launch a campaign

She's certainly in the mix, but I haven't really heard anything substantial.

[henster]

To contradict some points I made in conversation with Chickenhawk, there is a possibility that it's about race. Say, if Nina Turner runs for Governor or something. And in the press conference where Ryan endorsed Harrison, so did Congresswoman Fudge.

Meanwhile, Mayor Whaley and Governor Strickland have endorsed Buttigieg.

So far the only Ohio DNC member on the record for Perez is ODP Chair Pepper.

Any word on where Sutton falls? She's looking like the strongest D after Ryan, since I think Cordray won't make it back in time to launch a campaign

She's certainly in the mix, but I haven't really heard anything substantial.

Not everyone needs to run for Governor, there are plenty of row offices out there. Sutton for SoS, Cordray run for AG again, Pillich should try for Treasurer again.

[Rjjr77]

To contradict some points I made in conversation with Chickenhawk, there is a possibility that it's about race. Say, if Nina Turner runs for Governor or something. And in the press conference where Ryan endorsed Harrison, so did Congresswoman Fudge.

Meanwhile, Mayor Whaley and Governor Strickland have endorsed Buttigieg.

So far the only Ohio DNC member on the record for Perez is ODP Chair Pepper.

Any word on where Sutton falls? She's looking like the strongest D after Ryan, since I think Cordray won't make it back in time to launch a campaign

She's certainly in the mix, but I haven't really heard anything substantial.

Not everyone needs to run for Governor, there are plenty of row offices out there. Sutton for SoS, Cordray run for AG again, Pillich should try for Treasurer again.

There are other people lining up for down ticket races, I severely doubt Cordray or Sutton would eschew other private sector opportunities for down ticket races.