OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[BuckeyeNut]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

[Rjjr77]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

[BuckeyeNut]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

I really don't want Sutton/Leland to be a thing. But I don't know any Sutton supporters in the area, so ...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

I really don't want Sutton/Leland to be a thing. But I don't know any Sutton supporters in the area, so ...

I haven't heard any talk about Sutton/Leland (thank God), but with such a weak GOP field, I can't imagine the Democrats won't at least make a serious play for Treasurer.

[Rjjr77]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

I really don't want Sutton/Leland to be a thing. But I don't know any Sutton supporters in the area, so ...

I haven't heard any talk about Sutton/Leland (thank God), but with such a weak GOP field, I can't imagine the Democrats won't at least make a serious play for Treasurer.

I've heard Sutton/ Leland and Whaley/ Leland. My higher level dem friends have said its a Sutton vs Whaley east vs west battle at this point with schiavoni in a solid third and Pillich ridiculously far behind.

As for treasurer punt, I actually get it, it's a relatively worthless race that's hard to fundraise for and allows them to consolidate up ballot.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

I really don't want Sutton/Leland to be a thing. But I don't know any Sutton supporters in the area, so ...

I haven't heard any talk about Sutton/Leland (thank God), but with such a weak GOP field, I can't imagine the Democrats won't at least make a serious play for Treasurer.

I've heard Sutton/ Leland and Whaley/ Leland. My higher level dem friends have said its a Sutton vs Whaley east vs west battle at this point with schiavoni in a solid third and Pillich ridiculously far behind.

As for treasurer punt, I actually get it, it's a relatively worthless race that's hard to fundraise for and allows them to consolidate up ballot.

I have some contacts with Leland's office and he's probably not going to get on a ticket with Whaley (even Sutton would be more likely, I still think he runs for Treasurer if he runs statewide at all).  From what I've heard the primary is mainly a battle between Schiavoni and Sutton with Whaley in third getting a lot of the Southwestern support Pillich had been expected to pick up.  Pillich is a total non-factor.  Whaley could win, but it's pretty unlikely.  Leland is a pretty ambitious guy and Treasurer would be a better stepping stone for Governor or Senator down the road than LG on a losing ticket.  Another reason Sutton/Leland would be unlikely (though not impossible) is that Schiavoni is on far better terms with the FCDP organization than Sutton (my guess is they'll endorse Schiavoni unless he becomes a non-factor for some reason or people think Sutton's got things wrapped up).  I do agree that this is becoming a very regional primary though, so that may be why you and I have such different perspectives on how the candidates are doing.  For example, I can tell you that Whaley is going to do really well in Hamilton County, but she's probably going to come in a distant third in Franklin County.  This could potentially be a really interesting map, tbh.

[BuckeyeNut]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

I really don't want Sutton/Leland to be a thing. But I don't know any Sutton supporters in the area, so ...

I haven't heard any talk about Sutton/Leland (thank God), but with such a weak GOP field, I can't imagine the Democrats won't at least make a serious play for Treasurer.

I've heard Sutton/ Leland and Whaley/ Leland. My higher level dem friends have said its a Sutton vs Whaley east vs west battle at this point with schiavoni in a solid third and Pillich ridiculously far behind.

As for treasurer punt, I actually get it, it's a relatively worthless race that's hard to fundraise for and allows them to consolidate up ballot.

I have some contacts with Leland's office and he's probably not going to get on a ticket with Whaley (even Sutton would be more likely, I still think he runs for Treasurer if he runs statewide at all).  From what I've heard the primary is mainly a battle between Schiavoni and Sutton with Whaley in third getting a lot of the Southwestern support Pillich had been expected to pick up.  Pillich is a total non-factor.  Whaley could win, but it's pretty unlikely.  Leland is a pretty ambitious guy and Treasurer would be a better stepping stone for Governor or Senator down the road than LG on a losing ticket.  Another reason Sutton/Leland would be unlikely (though not impossible) is that Schiavoni is on far better terms with the FCDP organization than Sutton (my guess is they'll endorse Schiavoni unless he becomes a non-factor for some reason or people think Sutton's got things wrapped up).  I do agree that this is becoming a very regional primary though, so that may be why you and I have such different perspectives on how the candidates are doing.  For example, I can tell you that Whaley is going to do really well in Hamilton County, but she's probably going to come in a distant third in Franklin County.  This could potentially be a really interesting map, tbh.

Schiavoni winning Franklin County would make some sense, due to his time as minority leader. But I can see Sutton cleaning up really well in NEOH due to her time in Congress, and NEOH is still the party's base. Whaley undercutting Pillich in the South makes sense. As of now, I'd bet Schiavoni does the best in Appalachia. Not there are a lot of voters there for the primary, but still.

It'll be interesting to see who Athens and Lucas break for. It seems like Sutton want's to rally the Bernie wing, but Pillich is definitely running the most leftist campaign. I wonder if she might go at Treasurer again when things pick up and it becomes clear she's locked into last place...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

I really don't want Sutton/Leland to be a thing. But I don't know any Sutton supporters in the area, so ...

I haven't heard any talk about Sutton/Leland (thank God), but with such a weak GOP field, I can't imagine the Democrats won't at least make a serious play for Treasurer.

I've heard Sutton/ Leland and Whaley/ Leland. My higher level dem friends have said its a Sutton vs Whaley east vs west battle at this point with schiavoni in a solid third and Pillich ridiculously far behind.

As for treasurer punt, I actually get it, it's a relatively worthless race that's hard to fundraise for and allows them to consolidate up ballot.

I have some contacts with Leland's office and he's probably not going to get on a ticket with Whaley (even Sutton would be more likely, I still think he runs for Treasurer if he runs statewide at all).  From what I've heard the primary is mainly a battle between Schiavoni and Sutton with Whaley in third getting a lot of the Southwestern support Pillich had been expected to pick up.  Pillich is a total non-factor.  Whaley could win, but it's pretty unlikely.  Leland is a pretty ambitious guy and Treasurer would be a better stepping stone for Governor or Senator down the road than LG on a losing ticket.  Another reason Sutton/Leland would be unlikely (though not impossible) is that Schiavoni is on far better terms with the FCDP organization than Sutton (my guess is they'll endorse Schiavoni unless he becomes a non-factor for some reason or people think Sutton's got things wrapped up).  I do agree that this is becoming a very regional primary though, so that may be why you and I have such different perspectives on how the candidates are doing.  For example, I can tell you that Whaley is going to do really well in Hamilton County, but she's probably going to come in a distant third in Franklin County.  This could potentially be a really interesting map, tbh.

Schiavoni winning Franklin County would make some sense, due to his time as minority leader. But I can see Sutton cleaning up really well in NEOH due to her time in Congress, and NEOH is still the party's base. Whaley undercutting Pillich in the South makes sense. As of now, I'd bet Schiavoni does the best in Appalachia. Not there are a lot of voters there for the primary, but still.

It'll be interesting to see who Athens and Lucas break for. It seems like Sutton want's to rally the Bernie wing, but Pillich is definitely running the most leftist campaign. I wonder if she might go at Treasurer again when things pick up and it becomes clear she's locked into last place...

I think Pillich blew it regarding any sort of statewide run in 2018, tbh.  I think Northern OH will be split between Sutton and Schiavoni.  It'll be interesting to see who the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party ends up backing.  I still think Schiavoni ultimately wins the primary, but it's really too early to say. 

[Rjjr77]

My contacts in both my region, and Columbus, see schiavoni as the one falling the most. Suttons out hustling him in the NE and he can't crack into western at all. I've been told if Schiavoni puts up an lethargic financial report it could be an early exit for him.

[BuckeyeNut]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

[Rjjr77]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

[BuckeyeNut]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

1: He closed out 2016 having raised over $200k, according to the Secretary of State's website. I'd call that better than decent, given his role. 2: Some State Reps. are considering passing on State Senate runs because they think he'll take all the air out of any potential Senate Dems Caucus fundraising.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

1: He closed out 2016 having raised over $200k, according to the Secretary of State's website. I'd call that better than decent, given his role. 2: Some State Reps. are considering passing on State Senate runs because they think he'll take all the air out of any potential Senate Dems Caucus fundraising.

Yeah, if Schiavoni's fundraising tanks then sure, he's in trouble.  However, I don't see that happening either.  Schiavoni's a solid fundraiser, not a powerhouse like Leland, but money shouldn't be what sinks him if he loses.  I've heard Schiavoni and Sutton are in a dogfight in the Northeast although I've also heard that he hasn't been doing as well in Northwestern Ohio.

[Rjjr77]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

1: He closed out 2016 having raised over $200k, according to the Secretary of State's website. I'd call that better than decent, given his role. 2: Some State Reps. are considering passing on State Senate runs because they think he'll take all the air out of any potential Senate Dems Caucus fundraising.

200k is not very good for a party leader, guys like Tom Patton and Dave Leland raise 4-5 times as much for state house seats...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

1: He closed out 2016 having raised over $200k, according to the Secretary of State's website. I'd call that better than decent, given his role. 2: Some State Reps. are considering passing on State Senate runs because they think he'll take all the air out of any potential Senate Dems Caucus fundraising.

200k is not very good for a party leader, guys like Tom Patton and Dave Leland raise 4-5 times as much for state house seats...

In fairness, Tom Patton and especially David Leland are definitely not even remotely normal with regard to fundraising   Leland in particular is a force of nature with regard to fundraising (don't know as much about Patton).

[BuckeyeNut]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

1: He closed out 2016 having raised over $200k, according to the Secretary of State's website. I'd call that better than decent, given his role. 2: Some State Reps. are considering passing on State Senate runs because they think he'll take all the air out of any potential Senate Dems Caucus fundraising.

Yeah, if Schiavoni's fundraising tanks then sure, he's in trouble.  However, I don't see that happening either.  Schiavoni's a solid fundraiser, not a powerhouse like Leland, but money shouldn't be what sinks him if he loses.  I've heard Schiavoni and Sutton are in a dogfight in the Northeast although I've also heard that he hasn't been doing as well in Northwestern Ohio.

I could see Sutton cleaning up in what's now Kaptur's district while Whaley pushes north along the western border fairly well.

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

1: He closed out 2016 having raised over $200k, according to the Secretary of State's website. I'd call that better than decent, given his role. 2: Some State Reps. are considering passing on State Senate runs because they think he'll take all the air out of any potential Senate Dems Caucus fundraising.

200k is not very good for a party leader, guys like Tom Patton and Dave Leland raise 4-5 times as much for state house seats...

Yeah, but Leland's 1: an exceptionally talented fundraiser and 2: in a much wealthier part of the state. 3: Leland only raised $130k in '16. More than half what Schiavoni raised, sure, but that $200k number reflects only what he raised for himself. It does not include what he raised for the Ohio Senate Democrats directly. We'll see what happens with the mid-year reports. I agree with X that if he did have a bad time, he's in trouble, but I see little reason why his fundraising would be poor.

[BuckeyeNut]

A very minor but interesting development, Mary Taylor has snagged Trump's Hamilton Co. Chair to co-chair her operation in SW OH. Her betrayal of Borges might pay off yet.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cordray apparently expected to announce before End of September

I thought one guy was speculating that this was the case; I haven't seen any sort of actual confirmation although this would obviously be a game-changer if true.  In other news, Republicans apparently bought the domain name cordray2018.com and made it an anti-Cordray attack site

[BuckeyeNut]

Cordray apparently expected to announce before End of September

I thought one guy was speculating that this was the case; I haven't seen any sort of actual confirmation although this would obviously be a game-changer if true.  In other news, Republicans apparently bought the domain name cordray2018.com and made it an anti-Cordray attack site

Thoroughly unsurprised. OH GOP was attacking Cordray the minute Clinton lost. Would be very surprised if he got in.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cordray apparently expected to announce before End of September

I thought one guy was speculating that this was the case; I haven't seen any sort of actual confirmation although this would obviously be a game-changer if true.  In other news, Republicans apparently bought the domain name cordray2018.com and made it an anti-Cordray attack site

Thoroughly unsurprised. OH GOP was attacking Cordray the minute Clinton lost. Would be very surprised if he got in.

Agreed, I highly doubt he'll run.  TBH, I think he's probably done running for elected office at this point.

[BuckeyeNut]

Cordray apparently expected to announce before End of September

I thought one guy was speculating that this was the case; I haven't seen any sort of actual confirmation although this would obviously be a game-changer if true.  In other news, Republicans apparently bought the domain name cordray2018.com and made it an anti-Cordray attack site

Thoroughly unsurprised. OH GOP was attacking Cordray the minute Clinton lost. Would be very surprised if he got in.

Agreed, I highly doubt he'll run.  TBH, I think he's probably done running for elected office at this point.

He probably is, I wouldn't be surprised to see him on up from the CFPB in next Democratic administration, though.

Unrelated: Have you heard about any Democrats trying to run for Franklin County Auditor next Fall now that Mingo's trying to move up?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cordray apparently expected to announce before End of September

I thought one guy was speculating that this was the case; I haven't seen any sort of actual confirmation although this would obviously be a game-changer if true.  In other news, Republicans apparently bought the domain name cordray2018.com and made it an anti-Cordray attack site

Thoroughly unsurprised. OH GOP was attacking Cordray the minute Clinton lost. Would be very surprised if he got in.

Agreed, I highly doubt he'll run.  TBH, I think he's probably done running for elected office at this point.

He probably is, I wouldn't be surprised to see him on up from the CFPB in next Democratic administration, though.

Unrelated: Have you heard about any Democrats trying to run for Franklin County Auditor next Fall now that Mingo's trying to move up?

Not yet, but I'd be surprised if we don't pick it up.  The only county office here that the FCRP really cares about is County Prosecutor and even that's probably ours as soon as O'Brien's retires/loses (hopefully losing by a larger-than-expected margin in a wave year or something; I want to see O'Brien end his career on a humiliatingly miserable note).

[BuckeyeNut]

Cordray apparently expected to announce before End of September

I thought one guy was speculating that this was the case; I haven't seen any sort of actual confirmation although this would obviously be a game-changer if true.  In other news, Republicans apparently bought the domain name cordray2018.com and made it an anti-Cordray attack site

Thoroughly unsurprised. OH GOP was attacking Cordray the minute Clinton lost. Would be very surprised if he got in.

Agreed, I highly doubt he'll run.  TBH, I think he's probably done running for elected office at this point.

He probably is, I wouldn't be surprised to see him on up from the CFPB in next Democratic administration, though.

Unrelated: Have you heard about any Democrats trying to run for Franklin County Auditor next Fall now that Mingo's trying to move up?

Not yet, but I'd be surprised if we don't pick it up.  The only county office here that the FCRP really cares about is County Prosecutor and even that's probably ours as soon as O'Brien's retires/loses (hopefully losing by a larger-than-expected margin in a wave year or something; I want to see O'Brien end his career on a humiliatingly miserable note).

So long as Mingo wins his primary, I suppose. If he loses to Sprague, he should be able to still run for re-election. I think. Megan Kilgore would be a good candidate, but it might look bad having only become city auditor in 2017 before running for county auditor in 2018.

I doubt Ohio Democrats will have the pleasure of knocking off O'Brien. After how Klein came in '16, I'd assume he bows out. He is getting quite old at this point.

[BuckeyeNut]

Recent Cordray speculation may be flamed on by Brent Larkin, who anticipates his entry by September, but lacks any solid evidence as to why he thinks that might be the case.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Recent Cordray speculation may be flamed on by Brent Larkin, who anticipates his entry by September, but lacks any solid evidence as to why he thinks that might be the case.