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Author Topic: OH: Dems Debate  (Read 33192 times)
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #325 on: March 17, 2017, 10:32:48 am »
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Could the Dems pick his seat up?
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« Reply #326 on: March 17, 2017, 10:38:50 am »
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Could the Dems pick his seat up?
One, if he resigns they'll be an appointment, depending on when the resignation comes there'd be no special.
Two, I don't think there are any democrats left in Butler County.
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« Reply #327 on: March 17, 2017, 11:31:12 am »
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Because of the appointment process alone, no. It's actually a really good move to have someone resign from the Ohio State House, as far as the Caucuses are concerned. If you have a super early replacement, you basically can have someone in the House for 10 years, or the Senate for 12, as appointments don't count toward term limits.
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« Reply #328 on: March 17, 2017, 03:39:56 pm »
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I had a question for the OH experts. If Trump does fire Cordray in the distant future, when is the absolute latest that Cordray could go home and run for governor in that scenario and still be a viable candidate?
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« Reply #329 on: March 17, 2017, 05:23:48 pm »
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I believe it's been said he'd need to be in by the end of May.
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« Reply #330 on: March 20, 2017, 08:19:20 am »
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Congresman Jim Renacci to file gubernatorial paperwork later this morning. While largely unknown outside of his district, he is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and can play off his early support for Trump.
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« Reply #331 on: March 20, 2017, 08:43:12 am »
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Congresman Jim Renacci to file gubernatorial paperwork later this morning. While largely unknown outside of his district, he is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and can play off his early support for Trump.

Well okay then Tongue  If Renacci wants to throw away his political career, I certainly won't complain. 

The Democrats should definitely try to recruit a top-tier candidate here.  This seat is winnable, especially in a Democratic year.  Even Sutton almost beat Renacci (admittedly a weak-ish incumbent, but so was Sutton) in 2012.  While I'd prefer a stronger recruit who hasn't...you know...already lost here (ideally someone from either the swingy/mildly Republican-leaning Cuyahoga County portion or a moderates from the Summit County portion besides Sutton).  Actually, if we can't find such a recruit then at the very least Sutton could at least drop down and run here as wave insurance.
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« Reply #332 on: March 20, 2017, 09:47:15 am »
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Congresman Jim Renacci to file gubernatorial paperwork later this morning. While largely unknown outside of his district, he is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and can play off his early support for Trump.

Well okay then Tongue  If Renacci wants to throw away his political career, I certainly won't complain. 

The Democrats should definitely try to recruit a top-tier candidate here.  This seat is winnable, especially in a Democratic year.  Even Sutton almost beat Renacci (admittedly a weak-ish incumbent, but so was Sutton) in 2012.  While I'd prefer a stronger recruit who hasn't...you know...already lost here (ideally someone from either the swingy/mildly Republican-leaning Cuyahoga County portion or a moderates from the Summit County portion besides Sutton).  Actually, if we can't find such a recruit then at the very least Sutton could at least drop down and run here as wave insurance.

56-40 Trump, IIRC. Not impossible, but - difficult.
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« Reply #333 on: March 20, 2017, 09:54:31 am »
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If it's open in a good year, the 14th is a fine target. So long as someone other than Wager runs.

I could see, perhaps worryingly, Tom Sawyer trying to make a comeback?
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« Reply #334 on: March 20, 2017, 10:01:36 am »
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If it's open in a good year, the 14th is a fine target. So long as someone other than Wager runs.

I could see, perhaps worryingly, Tom Sawyer trying to make a comeback?

Renacci represents the 16th, but yes, the 14th is a good target regardless of what Joyce does.
 
Congresman Jim Renacci to file gubernatorial paperwork later this morning. While largely unknown outside of his district, he is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and can play off his early support for Trump.

Well okay then Tongue  If Renacci wants to throw away his political career, I certainly won't complain. 

The Democrats should definitely try to recruit a top-tier candidate here.  This seat is winnable, especially in a Democratic year.  Even Sutton almost beat Renacci (admittedly a weak-ish incumbent, but so was Sutton) in 2012.  While I'd prefer a stronger recruit who hasn't...you know...already lost here (ideally someone from either the swingy/mildly Republican-leaning Cuyahoga County portion or a moderates from the Summit County portion besides Sutton).  Actually, if we can't find such a recruit then at the very least Sutton could at least drop down and run here as wave insurance.

56-40 Trump, IIRC. Not impossible, but - difficult.

That number is pretty deceptive.
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« Reply #335 on: March 20, 2017, 10:53:36 am »
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If it's open in a good year, the 14th is a fine target. So long as someone other than Wager runs.

I could see, perhaps worryingly, Tom Sawyer trying to make a comeback?

Renacci represents the 16th, but yes, the 14th is a good target regardless of what Joyce does.
Oh, right. My mistake.
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« Reply #336 on: March 20, 2017, 11:27:17 am »
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Congresman Jim Renacci to file gubernatorial paperwork later this morning. While largely unknown outside of his district, he is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and can play off his early support for Trump.

Well okay then Tongue  If Renacci wants to throw away his political career, I certainly won't complain. 

The Democrats should definitely try to recruit a top-tier candidate here.  This seat is winnable, especially in a Democratic year.  Even Sutton almost beat Renacci (admittedly a weak-ish incumbent, but so was Sutton) in 2012.  While I'd prefer a stronger recruit who hasn't...you know...already lost here (ideally someone from either the swingy/mildly Republican-leaning Cuyahoga County portion or a moderates from the Summit County portion besides Sutton).  Actually, if we can't find such a recruit then at the very least Sutton could at least drop down and run here as wave insurance.

56-40 Trump, IIRC. Not impossible, but - difficult.

With a bad republican in a big d year sure...
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« Reply #337 on: March 20, 2017, 03:49:06 pm »
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I believe it's been said he'd need to be in by the end of May.

I'm surprised that it would have to be that soon. As the Dem field seems to be relatively lackluster at the moment, perhaps he could afford to wait for a bit longer if it doesn't improve in the mean time?
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« Reply #338 on: March 20, 2017, 06:58:38 pm »
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I believe it's been said he'd need to be in by the end of May.

I'm surprised that it would have to be that soon. As the Dem field seems to be relatively lackluster at the moment, perhaps he could afford to wait for a bit longer if it doesn't improve in the mean time?
Filing deadline is January / February sometime, but he'd need a full staff and apparatus ready to win a deep divided primary. I'd say may is the latest he could enter barring a field clearing incident
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« Reply #339 on: March 20, 2017, 08:39:01 pm »
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I believe it's been said he'd need to be in by the end of May.

I'm surprised that it would have to be that soon. As the Dem field seems to be relatively lackluster at the moment, perhaps he could afford to wait for a bit longer if it doesn't improve in the mean time?
Filing deadline is January / February sometime, but he'd need a full staff and apparatus ready to win a deep divided primary. I'd say may is the latest he could enter barring a field clearing incident
Especially with Nan Whaley announcing "any day now."
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« Reply #340 on: March 20, 2017, 10:24:14 pm »
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I believe it's been said he'd need to be in by the end of May.

I'm surprised that it would have to be that soon. As the Dem field seems to be relatively lackluster at the moment, perhaps he could afford to wait for a bit longer if it doesn't improve in the mean time?
Filing deadline is January / February sometime, but he'd need a full staff and apparatus ready to win a deep divided primary. I'd say may is the latest he could enter barring a field clearing incident
Especially with Nan Whaley announcing "any day now."
Yep. The dem primary has the makings of a nastier primary than the R one as there isn't too much separating the bottom tier from the top. While things can change on the R side, I think it's clear right now that Husted and Dewine are on one level and Taylor and Renacci on a lower one.
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« Reply #341 on: March 21, 2017, 08:33:31 am »
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This is shaping up to be quite a crowded race on both sides... are there still any candidates we expect will run? Nan Whaley apparently is announcing any day now. Will Nina Turner run? Any other candidates?

For republicans, we have Taylor, DeWine and Renacci. Will Husted get in too? Any other candidates?

With such a crowded field, I'm wondering if any of these candidates will drop out to run for a different office (either for Congress or another statewide office).

Does anyone want to predict a general election matchup?
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« Reply #342 on: March 21, 2017, 11:54:24 am »
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This is shaping up to be quite a crowded race on both sides... are there still any candidates we expect will run? Nan Whaley apparently is announcing any day now. Will Nina Turner run? Any other candidates?

For republicans, we have Taylor, DeWine and Renacci. Will Husted get in too? Any other candidates?

With such a crowded field, I'm wondering if any of these candidates will drop out to run for a different office (either for Congress or another statewide office).

Does anyone want to predict a general election matchup?
Husted is definitely in. I don't think Nina Turner is in, but in all honesty I could see Kucinich get in.

I'm doubting any one of these candidates leaves the race, MAYBE Taylor, but I doubt it.

I'm predicting a Husted Vs. Sutton matchup.
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« Reply #343 on: March 21, 2017, 03:17:13 pm »
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I'm mostly in agreement with what RJJR said, however, there's a small chance Husted runs for Senate.
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« Reply #344 on: March 21, 2017, 03:19:29 pm »
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This is shaping up to be quite a crowded race on both sides... are there still any candidates we expect will run? Nan Whaley apparently is announcing any day now. Will Nina Turner run? Any other candidates?

For republicans, we have Taylor, DeWine and Renacci. Will Husted get in too? Any other candidates?

With such a crowded field, I'm wondering if any of these candidates will drop out to run for a different office (either for Congress or another statewide office).

Does anyone want to predict a general election matchup?
Husted is definitely in. I don't think Nina Turner is in, but in all honesty I could see Kucinich get in.

I'm doubting any one of these candidates leaves the race, MAYBE Taylor, but I doubt it.

I'm predicting a Husted Vs. Sutton matchup.

I would say the Democratic race belongs to Richard Cordray or Jay Williams - if they run. Husted will hold the young vote and moderates/libertarians.
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« Reply #345 on: March 22, 2017, 01:26:05 am »
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This is shaping up to be quite a crowded race on both sides... are there still any candidates we expect will run? Nan Whaley apparently is announcing any day now. Will Nina Turner run? Any other candidates?

For republicans, we have Taylor, DeWine and Renacci. Will Husted get in too? Any other candidates?

With such a crowded field, I'm wondering if any of these candidates will drop out to run for a different office (either for Congress or another statewide office).

Does anyone want to predict a general election matchup?
Husted is definitely in. I don't think Nina Turner is in, but in all honesty I could see Kucinich get in.

I'm doubting any one of these candidates leaves the race, MAYBE Taylor, but I doubt it.

I'm predicting a Husted Vs. Sutton matchup.

I would say the Democratic race belongs to Richard Cordray or Jay Williams - if they run. Husted will hold the young vote and moderates/libertarians.

Jay Williams won't run. Cordray, needs to get in, he's got a bit over a month in my mind. If williams Rand he'd probably finish near the bottom of this pack. I wouldn't be surprised if he ran for Schiavonis spot.
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« Reply #346 on: March 22, 2017, 09:11:13 am »
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In non election news: Former House Freedom Caucus chairman, Jim Jordan and his little buddy, Warren Davidson, who succeeded Boehner in the House, are set to oppose the ACHA from it's right, while Hamilton County-area Congressmen Steve Chabot and Brad Wenstrup seem undecided on the bill.
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« Reply #347 on: March 26, 2017, 10:38:35 am »
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The Trump Administration is taking the CFPB, and by proxy, Cordray, to court, and the Justice Department won't be allowed to defend them. Given the seemingly long timeline for taking the CPFB to court, I doubt more than ever that Cordray makes it into the race.
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« Reply #348 on: March 26, 2017, 12:57:10 pm »
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Which wouldnt be a problem if we had Tim Ryan...

Well, it's an issue for TD Tongue
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« Reply #349 on: March 30, 2017, 09:08:38 am »
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Franklin County Auditor, Clarence Mingo, will primary State Rep. Robert Sprague for Treasurer.
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