OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[KingSweden]

Case study in whether Trumpism is transferable beyond Trump

[KingSweden]

Because they've traditionally fit the Kasich model?

ION: While she has to seek re-election this year, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley has expressed serious interest in running for Governor.

Why not just run against Mike What'shisname in Congress?

[KingSweden]

Montgomery County actually went for Trump in 2016, the first time the county has gone Republican since Reagan. While the district is theoretically one of the most competitive by PVI (though that needs re-calculating), Mike Turner is an incredibly popular incumbent. Unless he does something drastic, it's not a particularly good pick-up opportunity until his retirement.

Additionally, while Whaley has been talked up as potential Congressional candidate in the past, she seems more interested in serving as an executive.

Got it. Thanks!

[KingSweden]

Hate to double post. But Palenda now officially in for SOS. This could get ugly, as Senator LaRose comes from an independently wealthy family. That said, he was scheduled to have fundraiser in D.C. tonight with Sean Spicer headlining, and Spicer was allegedly made to drop the event from his schedule due to LaRose being so critical of Trump early on. Palenda can probably play on that, regardless.

This'll be a fascinating dynamic - Trump deep-sixing potential rising stars like LaRose over their initial critiques of him. I think it could hurt the GOP in a lot of races

[KingSweden]

Sutton has superior name recognition, obviously, but I'm skeptical about her campaign chops. We'll see

[KingSweden]

Mike DeWine killed a Fair Redistricting amendment yesterday. Republicans in the State poll as favoring fair districts, so this may bite him.

Interestingly, his main opponent Husted has been a frequent and vocal supporter of redistricting reform for some time.

Fully independent or just with strong guidelines, a la Iowa?

[KingSweden]

Mike DeWine killed a Fair Redistricting amendment yesterday. Republicans in the State poll as favoring fair districts, so this may bite him.

Interestingly, his main opponent Husted has been a frequent and vocal supporter of redistricting reform for some time.

Fully independent or just with strong guidelines, a la Iowa?

I think the bill he put forward several time was for at least one member of the minority party on the apportionment board had to approve the map.

Better than nothing I suppose. Still think the Iowa method is the best.

[KingSweden]

LaRose is pretty moderate, no?

[KingSweden]

Maybe I'm a cynic, but Mary Taylor is capitalizing on her sons' opioid addiction to connect with voters.

it seems tasteless

[KingSweden]

I'm thinking both primary (and general) are lean Husted

But OH posters would obviously know better

[KingSweden]

At the statewide level, we passed a constitutional amendment called Mary's Law that a California millionaire has been financing around the country. The amendment calls for "victim's rights" in criminal proceedings. Most of it is redundant, as the Ohio Constitution already featured a set of victim's rights, while part of it is incredibly harmful and hampers due process by letting the victims of crime refuse participation in the discovery process.

We also rejected an amendment that would have set a fixed price the state pays for pharmaceuticals and tied that price to the discount rate the VA pays. Nice on paper, but a lot of problems with enforcement, and some weird provisions about using tax dollars to pay for a private legal defense of the bill passed and incurred law suits, which almost certainly would have given enforcement issues.

The incumbent Mayor of Toledo lost re-election to another Democrat, the incumbent Mayor of Lima retained his seat versus a competent Republican, the incumbent Mayor of Cincinatti crushed his opposition after barely scraping into second place during the open primary, and the Mayor of Cleveland won an unprecedented fourth term.

Whoa letting alleged victims opt out of discovery!? That’s insane. Is that even constitutional?

[KingSweden]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/style/wp/2018/04/09/feature/the-vindication-of-dennis-kucinich

WAPO eating up Kucinich's attempt to portray himself as the proto-Bernie.

Barf. I have a number of disagreements with Sanders but he’s not on RT ranting about the Deep State. There is no comparison.

[KingSweden]

The son of Kucinich's LG pick, Tara Samples, arrested for threatening to kill cops.

http://www.wkyc.com/article/news/politics/son-of-akron-city-councilwoman-tara-samples-in-custody-after-threatening-police/95-536461584

This is going well

[KingSweden]

As Colin Firth says in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”...

“It has become so very ugly.”

[KingSweden]

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Suggests a generic D lead of about +3 then

[KingSweden]

I feel very good about downticket Ohio Democrats. Just need Cordray to pull it out for the sweep!

[KingSweden]

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180711/dewine-pledges-to-keep-full-medicaid-expansion-coverage DeWine has now changed his tune and says he will keep full medicaid expansion coverage --- albeit while seeking reforms.

I’ll take “my polling looks bad” for 400

[KingSweden]

New and improved prediction map that I won't update again until October or so.



By my count, there are 2 Likely D seats currently held by Republicans, 3 Tossups, 5 Tilt R seats, 2 Lean R seats, 7 Likely R seats, and 7 Very Likely R seats. A bad night in November consists of winning only 2 seats, an okay night is 3-6, a good night is 7-10, and a great night is 11 or more.

Imagine how clean a non-gerrymandered map would look

[KingSweden]

Oh boy. Bill Seitz is something else.

https://twitter.com/Claydog_15/status/1042235143287652352

Lolwut

[KingSweden]

More anecdotal observations (not from phone banking): there's a lot of pissy Republicans/conservatives /single issue gun voters planning to vote for Travis Irvine. Libertarians will easily get the 3% needed to retain ballot access in 2020.

Excellent news! Takes votes from DeWine so Cordray can win!

Single issue gun voters should prefer Cordray to DeWine anyway.

Is DeWine to Cordray’s left on guns?! Surprising!