OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Am I the only who can see Nina Turner if she runs on a "Im a Bernie guy who told Hillary not to ignore you guys" platform?

As winning or as running?

I could definitely see her running, but winning? Not so much. And I say that as a proud Bernie partisan.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Tim Ryan just endorsed Jaime Harrison for DNC Chair on his Facebook.

Hard to read anything about this for the state race

Borrowing the #analysis from a convo with Buckeye, but if he were about to run statewide it's unlikely he would A) endorse a DC lobbyist or B) annoy the Ellison contingent in the public by endorsing someone other than him. If this is a calculated rather than a personal move, it indicates he's not running for anything hard anytime soon.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Several things.

1: If Ryan is to be held to his timeline of "a couple of weeks," we should know his intentions by Thursday. An announcement is expected soon.
2: Speaking of timelines, the one I was given for Kucinnich was off, but buzz is building. When asked if he would run, Kucinnich did provide a Shermanesque statement.
3: Our Revolution is holding an organizing meeting for Nina Turner's hypothetical Gubernatorial bid. Like Kucinnich, Turner won't deny the possibility of running.

Yuuuuuuuuck.
I sincerely hoped that either Turner would have the wisdom to see her chances if she were the Dem nominee, or the official Bernieverse would, and she either wouldn't run or Our Rev (of which she's a board member, so this is pie in the sky) wouldn't support her.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Let's be honest he also isn't running because he wants to be a future speaker of the house

Was about to say, this is really the first major announcement of the 2018 Minority Leader contest.

Or hey, could be Speaker! Who hecking knows?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

It's easier to raise money state wide then for congress.

If you're running for Governor. If you're running for Senator. Maybe if you're running for Attorney General. Treasurer, Secretary of State, or Auditor? I'd beg to differ.

Having worked finance in a small capacity for an (admittedly lackluster) AG candidate, I can verify that downticket statewide fundraising is a terrible experience.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Cordray needs to get fired soon so he can run.

Maybe he can just start openly mocking Trump's hand size on twitter?

He should get liberals to accuse him of being #PresidentCordray and leak to a bunch of gullible reporters that he's the power behind the administration

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

If Cordray gets in I will, as they say, eat my hat.

It would be funny watching everyone else scramble to get out/down the ticket. I could see Sutton staying in, though, and that would be unfortunate.

Be careful there. Me and a friend are gonna eat a bug if Ossoff wins, and I'm feeling a little nervous about that rn.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Kathleen Clyde is officially in for Secretary of State.

EDIT: Also, the idea Cordray would play well in SE Ohio is garbage. Strickland tanked in Appalachia, and he was still something of a folk legend in his old Congressional District. Some of that might be about his flip on the 2nd Amendment, but I wouldn't count on Cordray's gun position not also having "evolved."

That was during the Tea Party wave of 2010...something tells me that's not gonna happen in 2018 and if anything the Democrats are much more likely to be in a favorable environment.

Pretty sure he was talking about the 2016 Senate campaign.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

So it doesn't appear that any of the other Democratic candidates are going to drop out due to Cordray entering? I feel the ideal situation would be for Sutton and Whaley to switch over to the House races in OH-16 and OH-10 respectively, and for Schiavoni to join the ticket as Cordray's LG candidate.  But that probably isn't likely.

Considering all but one of them (Pillich? I honestly forget) took swings at him when he resigned CFPB, it looks like all of them are in it until they run out of money.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

So Jay Williams, Tim Ryan, and Joe Schiavoni all three come from Youngstown? Interesting...

Yes, though Williams has said if Ryan gets in, he won't.

If Ryan gets in, I could easily see Schiavoni just running for his House seat.

It's definitely possible Schiavoni is just trying to smoke Ryan's true intentions out.

Am I the only who can see Nina Turner if she runs on a "Im a Bernie guy who told Hillary not to ignore you guys" platform?

As winning or as running?

I could definitely see her running, but winning? Not so much. And I say that as a proud Bernie partisan.

Turner would get crushed in a state wide race, though there's definitely a movement to draft her.  Her political future lies in Cleveland, if anywhere.

Turner already did get crushed statewide: https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Secretary_of_State_election,_2014

Wow that's a necro. Hey @buckeye, get a load of this! Nina Turner ran in 2014! Who knew? Defs not you, I bet.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

It gets worse:
https://twitter.com/im_PULSE/status/986372134703419393

Not to engage in whataboutism (I’m tepidly pro Cordray) but I eagerly await everyone jumping on the establishment’s connections to the Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati royal/noble families, or to the Mubarak regime back in the day and no doubt the Sisi regime in the future with the zeal we’re all jumping on Kucinich for association with Assad.

We’re the imperial hegemon atm (or at least we were, and are a great power now). Really unpleasant people the world over want our politicians’ support. I should hope that we’re all not so naive as to judge Kucinich for merely backing a loser in the lobbying game of “Get Washington To Forgive Your Atrocities.”

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

It gets worse:
https://twitter.com/im_PULSE/status/986372134703419393

Not to engage in whataboutism (I’m tepidly pro Cordray) but I eagerly await everyone jumping on the establishment’s connections to the Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati royal/noble families, or to the Mubarak regime back in the day and no doubt the Sisi regime in the future with the zeal we’re all jumping on Kucinich for association with Assad.

We’re the imperial hegemon atm (or at least we were, and are a great power now). Really unpleasant people the world over want our politicians’ support. I should hope that we’re all not so naive as to judge Kucinich for merely backing a loser in the lobbying game of “Get Washington To Forgive Your Atrocities.”

That’s a fair point, but there are plenty of other issues with Kucinich.

Oh sure. To be perfectly honest with myself the only reason I’m tepidly pro Cordray is because he’s a tepid kinda guy, you know?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

I await the swift liberal condemnation of the Obama administration's friendly relationship with the Saudis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

Logical fallacy.

(also incredibly ignorant of how international diplomacy works.)

You're right, that's not how international diplomacy works.

I await the swift condemnation of the Bush family's close personal relationship with the House of Saud.



As for whataboutism, that's an incredibly dumb charge to level. The simple truth is that people get away with cordial and financially complicated relationships with absolutely brutal regimes by virtue of the fact that said people and said regimes are in vogue in washington.

While it's an indication that Kucinich is a sorta slimy Gingrich of the Left, he's not unique in that respect, nor is the Assad regime for cultivating DC figures to try to gain cover for their crimes.

Kucinich specifically catching flak for this is not a factor of Kucinich being bad or his apology for authoritarian brutality unusual, it's a factor of the foreign policy establishment disliking Kucinich and for Kucinich having backed a loser. And I think that it's important to point that out. 

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

(I'm Aware I'm a week late to the party)

It may be an internal but Jesus H Christ: https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

Please, PLEASE Let this be real.  DeWine is freaking doomed if this is anywhere near correct, especially on Trump Voters.  If Cordray is flipping the Trump Voters in NE OH and Appalachia, as well as holding Hillary Rs in the Cincinatti and Columbus Suburbs, it'll be a rout.

Yikes at that swing in Trump approval though. 44-52 below to 48-47 above water :/

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Ryan Smith, former Speaker Rosenberger's heir apparent, leads the votes to become the next Speaker of the House, but can't break the necessary 50 votes due to Republican infighting. A special, and seemingly unconstitutional, meeting of the General Assembly has been called for tomorrow to elect a new Speaker, but both anti-Smith Republicans and Democrats are likely to protest.

Have there been any rumors of Democrats crossing the aisle to play kingmaker with one of the more reasonable republicans? Or is there A) no such option B ) no such interest on one side or another or C) both?

Thinking of New Hampshire as an example of this occurring in the past.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Bernadine Kennedy Kent has decided to join with Republicans and vote Smith for Speaker. Still no word from Patmon or Barnes.

Does anyone have an informal whip count on Householder? Saw that Smith claimed he had the votes but uh... didn't back it up.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Interesting tidbit: Hillary Clinton made a max donation to Clyde’s Campaign for SOS. And that’s a pretty penny. Roughly $12.7k!

Can we just talk about what a joke that "limit" is for a second?!

It's seriously ludicrous. I think caps are a clumsy solution to the problem anyway, but at that point you might as well not have a cap.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Interesting tidbit: Hillary Clinton made a max donation to Clyde’s Campaign for SOS. And that’s a pretty penny. Roughly $12.7k!

Can we just talk about what a joke that "limit" is for a second?!

It's seriously ludicrous. I think caps are a clumsy solution to the problem anyway, but at that point you might as well not have a cap.

Ohio is desperately in need of campaign finance reform. Our whole state government is blatantly pay to play.

This

Oh trust me. I've been in a pretty quiet corner of this fair state for like 47 days and I already know that full well.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I wouldn't say "sketchy businesses" set the agenda in Columbus. Council does a lot of good work.
The issue is they're a little too eager to hand out abatements, and the abatements they do hand out frequently go to the wrong areas. The Short North is fine, it doesn't need abatements anymore. Council needs to focus on other areas. It's time to start investing in Franklinton and The Hilltop.

I think Ohio guy meant the State House

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Cordray is on to us.

That's actually not a bad ad.

His team is smart enough to realize that they're not going to be able to make him into something he's not. It also helps that Rick Snyder proved the "one tough nerd" thing worked already back in 2010.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

If the majority of the voters of that district have any brains at all, this attack will backfire big-time.

This is a big ask for Murica.

Helle's running in a district Obama won twice and Democrats held at the state legislative level up until 2014 -- not Pennsyltucky.

shhh, don't trouble IceSpear with political geography east of the Rockies and west of the Alleghenies

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Any polls for DeWine vs. Cordray likely to drop soon?  We've gotten everything from FL-GOV to FL-SEN to IN-SEN to MO-SEN, yet nothing on Ohio...

We just got a C+ graded poll from Change Research earlier today. DeWine 45, Cordray 42. When they ask about the Libertarian and the Green, It's DeWine 43, Cordray, 43, Libertarian 6, Green 2. All online. Sort of junky, IMO. They only had Brown +4.

--

In more interesting news, the August Campaign Finance Reports dropped today.

August Filing

Cordray: $1.89m, $7.19m COH
DeWine: $2.02m, $11.6m COH

Dettelbach: $699k, $4.03m COH
Yost: $336k, $3.41m COH

Clyde: $238k, $1.75m COH
LaRose: $234k, $1.59m COH

Sprague: $101k, $463k COH
Richardson: $140k, $1.21m COH

Space: $154k, $998k COH
Faber: $135k, $1.14m COH

Rob Richardson is a MACHINE.

Ehhhh, Richardson has like no presence whatsoever in Franklin County

That’s okay. He’s evidently the only statewide with ANY presence in Montgomery County...

there appears to be a lot of geographic partitioning of the statewide ticket going on.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Koch Brothers are coming to play:

Dispatch: AFP helping 6 OH GOP leg candidates

Field and mail for:

Andrew Brenner (Senate Dist. 19)
Kristina Roegner (Senate dist. 27)

Jim Trakas (House Dist 6)
Tim Barhorst (HD 19)
Mike Rasor (HD 37)
J Todd Smith (HD 43)

boy oh boy oh boy