Beside Vermont and Maine who were hardcore GOP back then, why did he lose SD, ND, NE, KS, CO, WI, and IN on both of those elections? (WY and OH joined the trend in 44)
He won all of them in 36, and in 44 at least he was the president during the biggest war in history. Was that due to German immigrants and anti-war stance in those areas?
Slight correction: Willkie in 1940 won
Michigan (at the last minute: it was expected FDR would win that state at the end of the first election night) by 6,926 votes (0.33 percent or the closest state presidential result since 1916) but
lost Wisconsin by 25,615 votes or 1.82 percent.
It is generally accepted that German-descended families were outraged at FDR helping Britain against Hitler (whether they liked Hitler or not, and one must remember the New Deal was
strongly influenced by fascism) so they turned rapidly away from him in 1940. A huge number of these farm-belt German-settled counties have never voted for any Democrat since and have turned rock-solid Republican. Like Communist supporters opposing the Vietnam War, many people opposed United States participation in World War II because they preferred a Nazi victory, thinking it was the best protection against the Communism long-favoured by European urban working classes.
At the same time, in those states where most people were of British ancestry, like Tennessee, North Carolina and New England, FDR often did
better in 1940 than his 1932 and 1936 landslides. He came very close to winning Maine (losing by three percentage points as against fifteen) and gained five percentage points in Vermont. The following counties voted for Hoover twice and for Landon, but
not for Willkie:
- Calvert, Maryland
- Kennebec, Maine
- Sagadhoc, Maine
- Sullivan, New Hampshire
- Davie, North Carolina
- McMinn, Tennessee
- Roane, Tennessee
- Essex, Vermont
Evidence of support in English-settled areas and antagonism in German-settled areas in 1940 can be seen in
697 counties switching from Roosevelt to Willkie (of which fewer than twenty were won back by FDR in 1944, a poorer “regain rate” than Kerry in 2004 after Gore had lost similar huge swathes of land in 2000) yet some normally rock-ribbed Republican counties voting for FDR. Davie County, indeed, has apart from 1940 not voted Democratic since the divided election of 1912, and before that since 1896.
