App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map

[Tintrlvr]

A 538 R map isn't possible because Clinton won the popular vote. In fact Clinton would have to win at least 7EVs in any map, since you need a state where Clinton won by at least 2.6 million votes in order to give Trump all remaining states. Such a state would have at least 4 million people, which gives it at least 7 EVs.

You could add states.

You still have to have one or more states in which Clinton won at least 2.6 million net votes. The only way to cut that down below 7 EVs (other than expanding DC) is to create so many new tiny states each entitled to a minimum of one House district (3 EVs) that there aren't enough House districts left over in the current cap of 435 House districts for the Clinton state to have 5 House districts.

Plus, the app doesn't let you create new (more than 50+DC) states.

[5280]

Redrew the state boundaries to better reflect the geographic and political regions.

- Western Colorado and southern Utah became Arizona.
- Colorado becomes smaller and concentrated in mountains and front range.
- Southern Colorado becomes part of New Mexico.
- Eastern New Mexico becomes Texas.
- Southern Arizona (Phoenix, Tucson) part of California.
- East Oregon and Washington now Oregon.
- West Utah part of Nevada.
- Southern Idaho part of Utah.
- East Nebraska becomes Iowa. Eastern Colorado becomes part of Kansas.
- Pan handle of Nebraska becomes Wyoming.
- Pan handle of Florida is now Alabama.


Clinton - 273
Trump - 263

[Bigby]

By the way guys, the app updated. You can now destroy states entirely, reducing the EV total. You can also zoom in and out by scrolling. No making new states yet, though.

[muon2]

By the way guys, the app updated. You can now destroy states entirely, reducing the EV total. You can also zoom in and out by scrolling. No making new states yet, though.

I noticed that last night when I used the app to create a corrected version of the US population distribution in units of Canadas.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I had fun mutiliating the map. While it wasn't a primary goal of my shenanigans, I managed to get a 314-225 Clinton victory.  The link shows it as 313-225, but my DC, which consists of St. Louis County and City, is large enough to get 4 EVs since all of the other states have at least 4 EVs. (Indeed, my DC has more population than 2 of the 5 states with 4 EVs.)

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Two FABULOUS gerrymanders for both parties, designed to both solidify their respective advantage in the EC and give them an edge for Senate elections:

The Republican gerrymander:



Despite absorbing dark red counties from six neighboring states, Colorado remains competitive because it retains Denver and Boulder.

The Democratic gerrymander:



This one's my favorite because it switches West Virginia straight from a safe R to a safe D state, simply by extending the Eastern Panhandle through Maryland and NOVA and absorbing DC.

Kentucky goes from 8 to 18 EVs., Oklahoma from 7 to 19.

The new zoom feature made this a lot easier.

[Figueira]

Apparently Clinton won the part of New York north of the Bronx.

[muon2]

The zoom feature is a big help, but it doesn't zoom enough to show all the independent cities in VA. If the map is fully zoomed, the cursor can hover over them, even if the cities don't actually show up. When the cursor is showing the city, it can be highlighted to move.

[AGA]

Republican gerrymander.

[muon2]

Republican gerrymander.

Long live the Commonwealth of Nantucket!

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Anyone else having problems clicking counties in this? When I click it, it zooms in instead.

[AGA]

Republican gerrymander.

Long live the Commonwealth of Nantucket!

Good catch. It basically gives 3 free electoral votes to the Democrats.

What's amazing is that the map is a Republican electoral landslide, but a 2-point universal swing would probably result in a Democratic landslide, so the map may not work in other elections.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Republican gerrymander.

Long live the Commonwealth of Nantucket!

Good catch. It basically gives 3 free electoral votes to the Democrats.

What's amazing is that the map is a Republican electoral landslide, but a 2-point universal swing would probably result in a Democratic landslide, so the map may not work in other elections.

The 2012 results were a Democratic victory, 265-247, ftr.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

this would be 306-232 in 2008 I think, with CO, NM, NV, MI, OH, IA, and FL flipping in 2012.

[Adam Griffin]

50 states, drawn to (approximately) take the largest city in each state and then place each county in a state with whichever one of those cities is closest. Measurements are based on distance across land only, with a few exceptions (MI, Mackinac Bridge; Nantucket/Martha's Vineyard).

Election results here: 13 states were won by one candidate with less than 50% of the vote.

[jimrtex]

50 states, drawn to (approximately) take the largest city in each state and then place each county in a state with whichever one of those cities is closest. Measurements are based on distance across land only, with a few exceptions (MI, Mackinac Bridge; Nantucket/Martha's Vineyard).

Election results here: 13 states were won by one candidate with less than 50% of the vote.

What happens if you repeat the process:

Burlington becomes Syracuse,
Little Rock becomes Memphis
Bridgeport becomes Albany?

[Adam Griffin]

What happens if you repeat the process:

Burlington becomes Syracuse,
Little Rock becomes Memphis
Bridgeport becomes Albany?

As far as overall outcome - after doing some quick and rough drawing (each in a vacuum and independent of one other; I'm too lazy to redraw the entire map right now but can still generally tell if there'd be neighboring shifts):

Memphis: Trump 58-38; 371k margin - no change in EV total
Albany: Clinton wins by 35k - no change in EV total
Syracuse: Trump 51-44; 178k margin - change in EV total, no flips in neighboring states

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Here's a EV map of the original: I have to say, the relatively neat borders produced by this exercise in some places (like from Savannah to Michigan) was interesting, as is the smoother allocation of EVs across the states: from 25 states + DC having fewer than 8 EVs to 20; from 26 states having 8 or more EVs to 31 - the median number of EVs for a state in both is 9.

[Adam Griffin]

Here was another fun one that came down to the wire: reducing the US to the 10 largest states, with each county assigned to whichever of those 10 states' largest cities was closest.

Ultimately, Michigan came down to 3,089 votes in favor of Clinton, and with that, the election (non-Atlas colors):

[jimrtex]

Here was another fun one that came down to the wire: reducing the US to the 10 largest states, with each county assigned to whichever of those 10 states' largest cities was closest.

Ultimately, Michigan came down to 3,089 votes in favor of Clinton, and with that, the election (non-Atlas colors):

Jacksonville is the largest city in Florida.

The equidistant locus between two points on a sphere is a great circle perpendicular to the great circle between the two points at the point midway between the two points.

The boundary between Illinois (Chicago) and California (Los Angeles) should tilt towards the West and go through Montana. The northeastern corner of Alaska is almost equidistant between Chicago and Los Angeles.

[muon2]

Here's my variant on largest cities for states. I started with the 51 largest cities by 2015 ranking. Each county is assigned to the closest of these large cities based on the travel time from the largest city in the county. Even with all the large cities assigned to separate states in this scenario, Trump still wins the EC and 29 states.

[Tintrlvr]

I guess the state east of Phoenix is Mesa? But Mesa isn't even in the state! Seems like it should be by county rather than city.

[muon2]

I guess the state east of Phoenix is Mesa? But Mesa isn't even in the state! Seems like it should be by county rather than city.

There are three cities that are out of their states due to a larger city in their county. But I didn't measure distances by county here, I measured them from a city within a county to a large city. In the case of Mesa there are three AZ counties whose largest city is closer to Mesa than to either Phoenix or Tucson so Pinal, Gila and Navajo form a state. Similarly Orange CA is the Long Beach state and Denton TX is the Arlington state. Since it's based on travel time, there are times of day that no county would match to Arlington, so I went with a time when at least one county did.

[jimrtex]

I guess the state east of Phoenix is Mesa? But Mesa isn't even in the state! Seems like it should be by county rather than city.

There are three cities that are out of their states due to a larger city in their county. But I didn't measure distances by county here, I measured them from a city within a county to a large city. In the case of Mesa there are three AZ counties whose largest city is closer to Mesa than to either Phoenix or Tucson so Pinal, Gila and Navajo form a state. Similarly Orange CA is the Long Beach state and Denton TX is the Arlington state. Since it's based on travel time, there are times of day that no county would match to Arlington, so I went with a time when at least one county did.

If you used the 51 largest metropolitan areas you eliminate the problem, particularly if the MSA is always part of the state.

This would replace 5 secondary cities: Fort Worth, Long Beach, Mesa, Oakland, and Arlington. Eight additional cities would lose their place based on population:

Tucson 53rd MSA
Tulsa 55th
Fresno 56th
Omaha 59th
Albuquerque 60th
El Paso 68th
Colorado Springs 79th
Wichita 87th

The additional 13 would be:

Riverside 13th
Tampa 18th
St. Louis 20th
Orlando 23rd
Pittsburgh 26th
Cincinnati 28th
Providence 38th
Richmond 45th
Hartford 47th
Salt Lake City 48th
Birmingham 49th
Buffalo 50th
Rochester 51st

Interestingly, the most likely new state will be Grand Rapids, which is currently 52nd and growing faster than other challengers such as Tucson, Tulsa, and Fresno.