App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map

[Tintrlvr]

Cool. My minimal and overall I think geographically/demographically reasonable changes to get a Clinton victory are (and these I think are the most obvious changes):

1. Florida Panhandle (Jackson/Liberty/Franklin and west) to Alabama. Rump Florida flips to Clinton.
2. UP of Michigan to Wisconsin. Rump Michigan flips to Clinton.

New result is 276-262 Clinton

Michigan is still close on this, decided by about 16,000 votes in favor of Clinton. Florida is not close, around 100,000 votes in favor of Clinton. (Wisconsin is closer, at least in absolute terms, even with the UP - Trump by around 55,000 votes.)

[Tintrlvr]

You can combine states using this app, which is really neat. I always knew that a state that combined ID, WY, ND, SD, and MT would be the same size (population-speaking) as Louisiana, with 9 electoral votes instead of the 16 they have now, and that having one state instead of 5 would have flipped the election of 2000. What I didnt know until now is that if you add Nebraska to the superstate, it would only end up with eleven electoral votes, the same as Arizona, Tennessee, Massachusetts, and Indiana.

Its effect on the Senate would be more severe: a state which had 12 senators would now have 2, both Republicans. Remove 2 Democrats and 8 Republicans from the Senate to account for this, and you'd get a Democrat-controlled upper chamber, 46 to 44.

This shows just how gerrymandered the actual electoral college is. A group of people with the same numbers as Indiana have sextuple the Senate representation and nearly double the electoral college representation, just because of how they're distributed. (though this doesn't flip the 2016 election, but as we saw, changing the EC to do that is trivial)

See it here:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxotT4W5VIw9VFVzdHl6dE5KaHM/view?usp=sharing

The only states actually intentionally gerrymandered were the Dakotas being split in two by Rs in Washington before statehood. Most states were not created solely for political purposes, and their shapes are organic and not as easily changed as this app might apply. YMMV.

Nevada was also created for electoral purposes, to help buttress Lincoln's reelection in 1864. I think the same is true of Wyoming but am less certain.

[Tintrlvr]

A 538 R map isn't possible because Clinton won the popular vote. In fact Clinton would have to win at least 7EVs in any map, since you need a state where Clinton won by at least 2.6 million votes in order to give Trump all remaining states. Such a state would have at least 4 million people, which gives it at least 7 EVs.

You could add states.

You still have to have one or more states in which Clinton won at least 2.6 million net votes. The only way to cut that down below 7 EVs (other than expanding DC) is to create so many new tiny states each entitled to a minimum of one House district (3 EVs) that there aren't enough House districts left over in the current cap of 435 House districts for the Clinton state to have 5 House districts.

Plus, the app doesn't let you create new (more than 50+DC) states.

[Tintrlvr]

I guess the state east of Phoenix is Mesa? But Mesa isn't even in the state! Seems like it should be by county rather than city.

[Tintrlvr]

That map leaves a fair amount on the table, too. E.g., Lake County, IN and nearby into Illinois; Memphis and some other Mississippi valley areas like Baton Rouge into Mississippi; consolidating more of the Black Belt into Georgia/Mississippi/North Carolina.

[Tintrlvr]

That map leaves a fair amount on the table, too. E.g., Lake County, IN and nearby into Illinois; Memphis and some other Mississippi valley areas like Baton Rouge into Mississippi; consolidating more of the Black Belt into Georgia/Mississippi/North Carolina.

Theoretically, it should be possible to draw a 538-0 Democratic map.  I was able to get it down to 72 yesterday, but it looked pretty crazy in spots.

Yes and no. Only possible if you make some states discontiguous. But the changes I mentioned are all for a somewhat reasonable map (more reasonable than some parts of that map, like the Texas urban snakes or West Virginia reaching into MontCo).