Trump has chosen some members of congress for certain positions in his cabinet. This will require special elections to fill those congressional seats with someone else. Under the laws of the various states, some seats will have their special elections in 2017, others in 2018. In the case of the senate, the state's governor is usually able to appoint someone to take the seat until after the special election (but that appointee is by no means required to run in the special election), in the case of the house, the seat usually remains vacant until after the special election. I will attempt to offer a prediction for each special election as its need arises. This post will be updated as additional current members of congress are chosen for cabinet positions. This post assumes that all nominations to the cabinet will be confirmed.
Special Elections to replace Current Members of Congress Chosen for Trump's CabinetTo Replace Sen. Jeff Sessions (R, AL) (AG) - No drama in a special election here.
SAFE R for obvious reasons.
To Replace Rep. Tom Price (R, GA-6) (HHS) - This district voted for Romney by 23 points, but only voted for Trump by 1.5 points. Trump was actually held under 50% in the district. If there is going to be a resurgence of the democratic party in GA, it needs to start by winning this suddenly competitive house seat. I'm starting this at
LEAN R because the democrats need to find someone competent to run and get their voters to turn out, but if they can do that, it should be a very competitive race.
To Replace Rep. Mike Pompeo (R, KS-4) (CIA) - This district voted for Romney by 25.5 points, and for Trump by about 28 points. A special election here is obviously
SAFE R.
-----------------------
Members of Congress that could still be chosen for cabinet positions (prognostication on a special election will be offered once they are actually chosen for the position) Rep. Peter King (R, NY-2) (Homeland Security Advisor OR Sec. Homeland Security)
Rep. Duncan Hunter (R, CA-50) (Secretary of the Navy OR Sec. Def.)
Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R, OK-1) (Secretary of the Air Force)
Sen. Bob Corker (R, TN) (SOS)
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D, HI-2) (SOS OR Sec. Def. OR Sec. Vet. Affairs)
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R, CA-48) (SOS)
Sen. Tom Cotton (R, AR) (Sec. Def.)
Sen. Jerry Moran (R, KS) (Sec. Agriculture)
Rep. Kevin Cramer (R, ND-AL) (Sec. Energy)
Rep. Jeff Miller (R, FL-1) (Sec. Vet. Affairs)
Rep. John Katko (R, NY-24) (Sec. Homeland Security)
Rep. Steve King (R, IA-4) (Sec. Homeland Security)
Rep. Mike McCaul (R, TX-10) (Sec. Homeland Security)
Rep. Lou Barletta (R, PA-11) (Sec. Labor)
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D, ND) (
)
