West Virginia Poll: Manchin up double digits against possible 2018 challengers

[LimoLiberal]

http://harperpolling.com/polls/west-virginia-senate-2018-general-election-poll

[windjammer]

Too early to predict.
Jenkins would definitely be the strongest challenger as he's from the right part if the state.

[Fusionmunster]

Manchin definitely has some breathing room now. Not safe, but not in danger like Rockefeller would have been had he run in 2014.

[Maxwell]

lolol Manchin vs. Mooney is hilarious. (The most hilarious part of which is Mooney does the worst in the district he CURRENTLY REPRESENTS).

even GOODWIN would beat Mooney.

Also sounds like, as I suspect, Jenkins is their best choice and Carpet Bagger Mooney is the worst, with McKinley and Morrissey in the middle.

[Heisenberg]

lolol Manchin vs. Mooney is hilarious. (The most hilarious part of which is Mooney does the worst in the district he CURRENTLY REPRESENTS).

even GOODWIN would beat Mooney.

Also sounds like, as I suspect, Jenkins is their best choice and Carpet Bagger Mooney is the worst, with McKinley and Morrissey in the middle.

I totally agree with all this. Mooney is such an incompetent idiot.

[Devils30]

It is just harder to win in a midterm now for Rs in these seats. Look at 2002 even, Dems won places like MT, SD that they probably lose had Gore won in 2000.

[MT Treasurer]

Ask Senator Pryor what early polls at this point in time mean... but yeah, Jenkins or McKinley needs to run for this to be a Tossup.

[PAK Man]

Given how close Manchin is to Justice, I suspect a lot of how he does will be linked to the governor as well.

I agree that not a lot should be taken from this, given how early it is, but I've always suspected that Manchin was a lot safer than his other red state Democratic colleagues. I don't think Democrats do poorly here because they're Democrats; I think they do poorly because they're not pro-coal. That's why Rockefeller would have been doomed (didn't he give a big speech on the senate floor that basically boiled down to coal companies should quit whining about environmental regulations?) I think that's part of why Rahall lost too.

[SATW]

Jenkins is by far the best choice for the WV GOP. I hope he runs. I think Manchin's lead will shrink as time goes on but this poll is certainly good news for him and he is in better shape then most people thought.

[jamestroll]

Manchin may be helped simply by the fact that he is not running for re-election under a Hillary Clinton presidency.

Pryor and Lincoln both had to run under an Obama presidency.

West Virginia seems to have nearly unlimited ticket splitting, unlike Missouri where it is more limited. Perhaps West Virginia is a Democratic state at heart that fears Obama and Hillary would destroy all their coal jobs and switch to renewable energy.

News flash: we will have to transition out of fossil fuels at some point.

Polls for 2018 elections mean nothing 23 months before the fact.

[SATW]

Manchin may be helped simply by the fact that he is not running for re-election under a Hillary Clinton presidency.

Pryor and Lincoln both had to run under an Obama presidency.

West Virginia seems to have nearly unlimited ticket splitting, unlike Missouri where it is more limited. Perhaps West Virginia is a Democratic state at heart that fears Obama and Hillary would destroy all their coal jobs and switch to renewable energy.

News flash: we will have to transition out of fossil fuels at some point.

Polls for 2018 elections mean nothing 23 months before the fact.

No, what West Virginians feared is exactly what Hillary said: "We're going to put coal miners out of work."1 There was no mention of renewable energy. At all. I think people might be open to diversifying with new energy sources as long as we let them keep their old ones. Eventually they may switch over completely on their own. But, Democrats prefer to kill off coal without taking in the input of people who depend on those jobs.

Trump has talked about marcellus shale as a potential new source to innovate with but, of course, Hillary Clinton's ties to Saudi Arabia would prevent this from ever being explored on a national or even local scale.

1 = https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/06/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-and-the-unique-politics-of-coal-country-explained/?utm_term=.f912b6f52eac

[jamestroll]

I don't know what point you are trying to make. Coal is still an important energy source for us, but we will have to move on at some point. Economies shift, jobs shift, etc

Also, there is no such thing as clean coal. I call it slightly less dirty coal.

[SATW]

I don't know what point you are trying to make. Coal is still an important energy source for us, but we will have to move on at some point. Economies shift, jobs shift, etc

Also, there is no such thing as clean coal. I call it slightly less dirty coal.

My point is that Hillary did not ever make the clear intention to provide a new resource to the working class. She completely took the side of the environmental lobby and threw West Virginians overboard.

You are right, economies do shift but you can't just tell people that they will be unemployed and expect them to be happy about it. Hillary Clinton literally said this.

I see no reason to move away from coal but I am always an advocate for diversifying energy resources.

[RINO Tom]

I think this is a pretty predictable race ... it'll start out by the vast majority of WV Democrats supporting Manchin, giving him a comfortable lead.  It will narrow down to about 1/4 of them being convinced that a vote for Manchin is a vote for Chuck Schumer or some other corny line like that, giving Manchin a close lead.  The rest will depend on how popular Trump is (I suspect not that popular by 2018, but I could be very wrong).

If I had to put money on it, Manchin wins.

[Maxwell]

Ask Senator Pryor what early polls at this point in time mean... but yeah, Jenkins or McKinley needs to run for this to be a Tossup.

The earliest poll I can find was March 2013, showing Senator Pryor down 8. I'm not saying that early polls are especially predictive - Otherwise Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Russ Feingold would be smiling.

[jamestroll]

Yes Maxwell and TNVolunteer, early polling is not very predictive. Certainly if polls come out in August 2017 showing McCaskill and Manchin down by 10+ points, they will likely lose as they are incumbents and that would be a horrible place for an incumbent.

I think this year polls often got Clinton's support right but way underestimated Drumpf for two reasons.

1) Some conservatives toying with Gary Johnson

2) After two terms of a Democratic President, many voters likely wanted a Republican President but were unsure if they wanted Trump.

Obviously, they broke GOP at the end. Likely fueled by ObamaCare premiums and Comey. Not saying that was right or wrong, just stating my observation.

[LimoLiberal]

Ask Senator Pryor what early polls at this point in time mean... but yeah, Jenkins or McKinley needs to run for this to be a Tossup.

Prior was never up double digits in an early poll. In fact, the earliest poll on wikipedia actually has him down 8 points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas,_2014#Polling

[LimoLiberal]

Ask Senator Pryor what early polls at this point in time mean... but yeah, Jenkins or McKinley needs to run for this to be a Tossup.

Prior was never up double digits in an early poll. In fact, the earliest poll on wikipedia actually has him down 8 points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas,_2014#Polling

Wrong.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC%20News-Marist%20Poll_Arkansas_Annotated%20Questionnaire_May%202014.pdf

There were several other polls that showed him up 10. Anyway, I'm not saying Manchin will end up like Pryor (the race is definitely a Tossup, especially since Trump has won the presidency and WV still votes for the "right" Democrat) but I would take these polls with a grain of salt.

That poll was from May 2014 and not an early poll... though this whole argument is stupid considering we have only seen one poll from West Virginia. If more polls show Manchin with a relatively strong position, then I think its fair to say he's in a stronger position than Pryor.

[Nym90]

I don't know what point you are trying to make. Coal is still an important energy source for us, but we will have to move on at some point. Economies shift, jobs shift, etc

Also, there is no such thing as clean coal. I call it slightly less dirty coal.

My point is that Hillary did not ever make the clear intention to provide a new resource to the working class. She completely took the side of the environmental lobby and threw West Virginians overboard.

You are right, economies do shift but you can't just tell people that they will be unemployed and expect them to be happy about it. Hillary Clinton literally said this.

I see no reason to move away from coal but I am always an advocate for diversifying energy resources.

Actually Clinton had an extensive program to invest in job training and to assist displaced coal workers and those in other professions affected by these changes in the economy. Unfortunately the media finds policy details boring so this was not well reported on.

[jamestroll]

I don't know what point you are trying to make. Coal is still an important energy source for us, but we will have to move on at some point. Economies shift, jobs shift, etc

Also, there is no such thing as clean coal. I call it slightly less dirty coal.

My point is that Hillary did not ever make the clear intention to provide a new resource to the working class. She completely took the side of the environmental lobby and threw West Virginians overboard.

You are right, economies do shift but you can't just tell people that they will be unemployed and expect them to be happy about it. Hillary Clinton literally said this.

I see no reason to move away from coal but I am always an advocate for diversifying energy resources.

Actually Clinton had an extensive program to invest in job training and to assist displaced coal workers and those in other professions affected by these changes in the economy. Unfortunately the media finds policy details boring so this was not well reported on.

Thank you! That is exactly right. I am not one who is wanting to end coal any time soon. It is just not realistic, but it needs to be phased out for the sake of the planet.

Anyway, I think this race leans to Manchin, but it is hilariously early to say!

[Figueira]

Ask Senator Pryor what early polls at this point in time mean... but yeah, Jenkins or McKinley needs to run for this to be a Tossup.

I'd say it's a tossup no matter who runs.

[swf541]

lolol Manchin vs. Mooney is hilarious. (The most hilarious part of which is Mooney does the worst in the district he CURRENTLY REPRESENTS).

even GOODWIN would beat Mooney.

Also sounds like, as I suspect, Jenkins is their best choice and Carpet Bagger Mooney is the worst, with McKinley and Morrissey in the middle.

I totally agree with all this. Mooney is such an incompetent idiot.

Yep, Mooney is an idiot.

[jaichind]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-manchin-idUSKBN13Q61A?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5840c8bf04d30109e01d3ac3&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Trump considering Democratic Senator Manchin for energy secretary: Politico

That is one way to grow the GOP majority in the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think with a Trump midterm, you can dump a lot Trump state Democrats. And McCaskill is a tough fighter too.

At this point Donnelly and ND are probably gone and that takes Dems down 4.

[peterthlee]

Expect Manchin to win without any shudder, but with a greatly reduced margin like 53-46 or so. If Manchin retires (which is unlikely), the race is strongly safe R by 56-42, something like that.