Decisive regions in FL/MI/PA/WI
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  Decisive regions in FL/MI/PA/WI
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Author Topic: Decisive regions in FL/MI/PA/WI  (Read 1649 times)
TML
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 12, 2017, 12:26:35 PM »

For the past several months I've been analyzing how Trump won the states of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. During this process, I've come to realize that flipping counties alone cannot explain his win, and that it wasn't just urban/rural areas that were decisive.

Trump flipped only three counties apiece in FL and PA, so flipped counties alone cannot explain his victories in theses states. Looking closer, I've identified specific geographic regions which proved decisive: in FL, it was the counties immediately north of the core I-4 corridor, while in PA, it was the Northeastern part of the state (namely, the Wyoming Valley and other surrounding areas). For these two states, it seems that all it takes for the Democrats to flip them back is to invest in the aforementioned regions to reduce their losing margins to Obama's 2012 levels or better (they don't necessarily need to win these regions outright).

However, for WI and MI, I'm not as certain if there was a specific "decisive region" in these states. Can someone help me identify the "decisive regions" for these two states?
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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2017, 03:15:43 PM »

Well in Michigan the big ones that helped not counting black turn out down
We're the upper peninsula and macomb county
But the state no one ever talks about that *TRUMP* actually won is Minnesota that state just look at the iron ridge there are some crazy swings same down south in Minnesota 1
Also what actually won trump Florida is the fact even so southern Florida and Orlando is trending bluer every election is that palm beach county is trending republican at a very show but steady rate also Tampa bay St. Petersburg is still a swing area plus the space coast is trending red and Monroe county home to key west flipped to trump all of this is what will keep Florida a tilting red blue on the atlas swing state
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2017, 05:35:29 AM »
« Edited: August 16, 2017, 07:56:38 AM by mathstatman »

In MI, Macomb County definitely. Macomb went from a 16,000 vote margin for Obama in 2012 to a 48,000 vote margin for Trump in 2016 (a 64,000-vote swing). If the GOP swing in Macomb were even four-fifths of what it was IRL, Clinton would have won MI.
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libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2017, 06:50:28 AM »

Trump was able to win St. Lucie and Pinellas Counties, while also running up the margins in the Panhandle and traditionally Republican SWFL, which I think help explain his victory in FL.
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VPH
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2017, 09:42:47 AM »

Trump ran up the margins in places where the recession hit hard in FL. Hernando County, Pasco County, Volusia County.
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2017, 09:59:48 PM »

In Wisconsin, the Southwest, North Woods, Fox Valley, and Central Wisconsin were all crucial. Trump won the rural parts of the state by crazy margins (for Wisconsin anyway). While rural areas nationwide tend to be overwhelmingly Republican, many of them in Wisconsin are very swingy.

For example, Hillary got about 2500 more votes in the WOW Counties than Obama had in 2012. She lost that many in Juneau County, which only had 12000 voters. That was replicated all across the rural part of the state.

It's also worth mentioning how strong Trump performed in the Fox Valley, which is one of the most Rust Belt-like parts of the state.
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Don Vito Corleone
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2017, 07:10:05 PM »

Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania (home to Scranton) went from a 26,000 vote margin for Obama in 2012 to a 3,000 vote margin for Clinton in 2016.
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2017, 11:32:20 PM »

For PA, I would look at the northeast, especially Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. In Luzerne county, where Obama won twice, Trump won by nearly 20%. Overall, Obama won Luzerne+Lackawana by about 33,000 votes in 2012 whereas Trump won it by 23,000 in 2016. That's a swing of 56,000.

Trump also won Northampton county (another Obama county) by almost enough to negate Lehigh county and take away the Lehigh Valley as a factor aiding the democrats. I live about an hour from Bethlehem. They haven't gotten over the loss of Bethlehem Steel and won't any time soon, so that's no surprise.
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