Should the Democrats give up on Arizona?

[Downnice]

2008
McCain 53.8%
Obama 45.0%

Maricopa County -  McCain 54.8% to Obama 44.0%

2012
Romney 54.2%
Obama 44.1%

Maricopa County - Romney 55.1% to Obama 43.2%

Now we come to 2016 where Trump is the most unpopular winning candidate in history, not a good match for Arizona politics, and is a state which has a high Latino population (which helped Clinton win Nevada by the way) and the results are

Trump 49.5%
Clinton 45.4%

Maricopa County - Trump 49.1% to Clinton 45.7%

This was there best chance to turn Arizona red for the first time since 1996 and turn Arizona blue but they still lose it by over 4 points and in 2020 the incumbent will have more than likely have a the advantage. The Democrats need to give up on Arizona and focus on Georgia because the fact of the matter is the only way they turn Arizona red is by turning Maricopa county, or turning most of the other counties blue and I do not see them doing that.

[libertpaulian]

The only way I see AZ going blue is if Trump amps up mass deportations and there are protests every week for the next 4 years.

[RI]

The Dems have managed to get 44.xx% of the vote in AZ for five straight presidential elections. It's pretty impressive, really.

It's actually quite similar to how the GOP does in Minnesota.

[jamestroll]

I agree that just a some investment in Georgia  should give the Democratic candidate the state if the Democrats win the election in 2020.  I would actually be shocked if they do not carry Georgia while winning the electoral college nationally!

Only major hold back in Georgia is that the Atlanta Media Market is quite expensive, but it will only gain electoral votes, so it is worth it.

I would not entirely give up on Arizona. Maricopa County, for the first time in ages, elected two Democrats to county wide offices. If Democrats win in a landslide in 2020, I would think Arizona would be able to flip. It appears Maricopa County is not more Republican than the state as a whole.

But I think it would be GOP +5 in 2020 all things being equal to be honest.

[Cashew]

Maricopa elected a democratic sherrif, and phoenix has a democratic mayor so the county is entrily winnable.

I guess since Arizona is so unwinnable in your eyes Ohio is a safe red state.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Arizona is about to become as Democratic as Florida is and Ohio was.

Arizona's electorate is rapidly changing, and those changes favor Democrats at this point.

[Green Line]

Yes.

[Green Line]

Yes.

What's your reasoning?  Do you think they should give up on Iowa or Ohio as well?

No.  They with both be more viable than Arizona.

[AGA]

Of course not. Exit polls show that Trump did better amongst Latinos than Romney did, but the state still swung Democratic. Over time, the Arizona population is becoming more and more Latino. A Democrat can win Arizona without Maricopa county as Clinton did so in 1996. A winning Democrat can keep the margin close in Maricopa county and win some of the other counties by large margins.

[Green Line]

Of course not. Exit polls show that Trump did better amongst Latinos than Romney did, but the state still swung Democratic. Over time, the Arizona population is becoming more and more Latino. A Democrat can win Arizona without Maricopa county as Clinton did so in 1996. A winning Democrat can keep the margin close in Maricopa county and win some of the other counties by large margins.

Trump did badly in Arizona because he lost a lot of white republicans in the suburbs.  I think they are extremely likely to come home to him in a re-election campaign.

[jamestroll]

Of course not. Exit polls show that Trump did better amongst Latinos than Romney did, but the state still swung Democratic. Over time, the Arizona population is becoming more and more Latino. A Democrat can win Arizona without Maricopa county as Clinton did so in 1996. A winning Democrat can keep the margin close in Maricopa county and win some of the other counties by large margins.

Maricopa County is a significantly larger percentage of the states voters today, and especially 2020 than it was in 1996 when Bill Clinton won and 2002 when Janet Napolitano won without Maricopa County.

Plus places like Yuma, Greenlee (sp) and Pinal Counties are not likely to swing heavy Democratic. The voters to win statewide in AZ are in Maricopa County.. This election showed its not impossible for some Democrats to win it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

AZ went Democratic in 1996.  I believe that had McCain not ran in 2008, AZ would have gone for Obama that year.  (I don't know about 2012.)

[TDAS04]

No.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No, of course not. Western whites in most cases swung (and in pretty much all cases trended) Democratic this year.

[andrew_c]

It would be a terrible idea to give up on it. Arizona could be ripe for the picking soon.