CA-34: Becerra appointed CA AG

[socaldem]

https://twitter.com/JohnAPerez/status/804427718947287041 John Perez, former speaker of the California state assembly, announced via twitter that he's running for Becerra's seat.

Perez is very skilled. He's also an out gay man. I could see him quickly rising the ranks of House dems.

Senate Pro Tem Kevin de Leon is also rumored to be interested.

This area is the center of Latino power in California so it would be a good base for a future Democratic leader. It's where many of California's legislative leaders--Villaraigosa, Nunez, Perez, de Leon--hail from.

I like Becerra but he doesn't strike me as the cutthroat political operator one really needs to be to rise as House leader. I think he's a better senator or executive type.

Also has a substantial Asian population.

City Councilman David Ryu might be a potential candidate and in a special the Asian-American vote might be disproportionately higher because of better turnout vis-a-vis latinos. But I expect that it will more likely be a battle royale between two key power broker factions or a coronation for Perez.

Here are some of Perez' endorsements:

California State Controller Betty Yee
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (Ret.)
U.S. Congresswoman Karen Bass
U.S. Congresswoman Julia Brownley
U.S. Congressman Ted Lieu
U.S. Congressman Jared Huffman
U.S. Congressman Scott Peters
U.S. Congressman George Miller (Ret.)
California Board of Equalization Chair Fiona Ma
California Democratic Party First Vice Chair Alex Rooker
State Senator-elect Steven Bradford
State Senator Bob Wieckowski
State Senator Isadore Hall
State Senator Jerry Hill
State Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon
State Assembly Member Phil Ting
State Assembly Member Rich Gordon
State Assembly Member-elect Todd Gloria
State Assembly Member Bonnie Lowenthal (Ret.)
State Assembly Member Paul Fong (Ret.)
L.A. County Assessor Jeffrey Prang
Los Angeles City Council Member Bob Blumenfield
San Francisco County Supervisor David Campos
U.S. Congresswoman Julia Brownley
U.S. Congressman Ted Lieu
U.S. Congressman Jared Huffman
U.S. Congressman Scott Peters
U.S. Congressman George Miller (Ret.)
State Senator Bob Wieckowski
State Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon
State Assembly Member Rich Gordon

Some items to note:

1. Of course he has the support of his relation Antonio Villaraigosa but he also has support from the influential Calderon family. These lists are impressive but there aren't too many Latino powerbrokers on here yet. They may be biding their time.

2. I don't expect that he will see an Asian-American or African-American challenger. He has strong support from key Asian-Americans (Betty Yee, Fiona Ma, Ted Lieu) and African-Americans (Karen Bass, Steven Bradford and Isadore Hall) whose support would be critical for an Asian-American or African-American candidate to contest the seat. If he can do well with the black and Asian American communities in the district, that will give him a leg up on another latino challenger.

3. Perez is well-regarded for his handling of the speakership and his ability to get things done with Arnold and Gov. Brown--hence the big name officials endorsing him all over the state. He also has strong connections to the powerful gay mafia ;-) that controls the state party behind the scenes.

[Kingpoleon]

Is Nunez in this disrict, socaldem?

Yes but I don't think he's going anywhere after the scandal where his son killed someone... and didn't get punished all that much.

IIRC, his son committed "involuntary manslaughter". He and his friend had been attacked by at least three other men, and the three other men were stabbed. One of them died, and it was believed his friend was the one who stabbed the man who died.

It should be noted that I doubt anyone could bring that up without coming off as a complete and total jerk, to speak mildly.

[Figueira]

Perez seems OK, but seriously folks, this is why jungle primaries are a terrible idea.

[The Other Castro]

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  50s50 seconds ago
CA CD-34: Ex-Assembly Speaker John Perez (D), early frontrunner in upcoming special election, quits race today after suffering heart attack.

[Figueira]

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  50s50 seconds ago
CA CD-34: Ex-Assembly Speaker John Perez (D), early frontrunner in upcoming special election, quits race today after suffering heart attack.

I hope he's OK.

[houseonaboat]

If de Leon wants a promotion this is probably his best shot

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So now with Van Hollen and Becerra, would could succeed Pelosi?

Nobody, she'll be Dem leader forever. When she dies, her ghost will continue to lead the caucus so Steny Hoyer can't have the spot.

[Maxwell]

So now with Van Hollen and Becerra, would could succeed Pelosi?

Nobody, she'll be Dem leader forever. When she dies, her ghost will continue to lead the caucus so Steny Hoyer can't have the spot.

Ben Lujan maybe?

[houseonaboat]

So now with Van Hollen and Becerra, would could succeed Pelosi?

Nobody, she'll be Dem leader forever. When she dies, her ghost will continue to lead the caucus so Steny Hoyer can't have the spot.

Ben Lujan maybe?

I'd bet on Jared Polis, maybe Seth Moulton

[Zioneer]

So now with Van Hollen and Becerra, would could succeed Pelosi?

Nobody, she'll be Dem leader forever. When she dies, her ghost will continue to lead the caucus so Steny Hoyer can't have the spot.

Ben Lujan maybe?

I'd bet on Jared Polis, maybe Seth Moulton

Lujan, Moulton, and Polis are all pretty new, would they be able to gain the loyalty of the caucus?

[Figueira]

Please not Polis.

[The Other Castro]

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  31s31 seconds ago
CA CD-34: Ex-Sanders campaign depy political dir Arturo Carmona (D) becomes 5th Dem to enter special elec race for Cong Becerra's open seat.

[coloradocowboi]

Please not Polis.

I live in his district. He is a wet blanket flailing in the wind.

DeGette is a more likely CO Dem to ascent the leadership hierarchy than him, and she's still very unlikely.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  31s31 seconds ago
CA CD-34: Ex-Sanders campaign depy political dir Arturo Carmona (D) becomes 5th Dem to enter special elec race for Cong Becerra's open seat.

Hmm that's interesting because one of the other candidates, Wendy Carrillo is also a Bernie supporter.  She is a journalist and wrote in one of her articles:

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[Figueira]

Who are the five Democrats?

[justfollowingtheelections]

Wikipedia has 3 but they don't have Carmona.

Wendy Carillo (Standing Rock and Fight for 15 activist and radio host)
Jimmy Gomez (state assemblyman)
Sarah Hernandez (former teacher and nonprofit leader)

They also have a Green party candidate:

Kenneth Mejia (activist) (Mejia is also a Bernie supporter)

That means 3 out of 5 candidates are vocal Bernie supporters.  I'm not sure where the other two candidates stand.

[Figueira]

Sanders apparently won this district, so being a supporter of him should be an asset in the jungle primary.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Wikipedia has 3 but they don't have Carmona.

Wendy Carillo (Standing Rock and Fight for 15 activist and radio host)
Jimmy Gomez (state assemblyman)
Sarah Hernandez (former teacher and nonprofit leader)

They also have a Green party candidate:

Kenneth Mejia (activist) (Mejia is also a Bernie supporter)

That means 3 out of 5 candidates are vocal Bernie supporters.  I'm not sure where the other two candidates stand.

Without knowing anything about them, Gomez and Hernandez seem like the best. I don't trust candidate with the main title "activist".

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Sanders apparently won this district, so being a supporter of him should be an asset in the jungle primary.

Bernie won it 51.25-47.75 and was his 5th best district overall (As well as best in SoCal).

[justfollowingtheelections]

Wikipedia has 3 but they don't have Carmona.

Wendy Carillo (Standing Rock and Fight for 15 activist and radio host)
Jimmy Gomez (state assemblyman)
Sarah Hernandez (former teacher and nonprofit leader)

They also have a Green party candidate:

Kenneth Mejia (activist) (Mejia is also a Bernie supporter)

That means 3 out of 5 candidates are vocal Bernie supporters.  I'm not sure where the other two candidates stand.

Without knowing anything about them, Gomez and Hernandez seem like the best. I don't trust candidate with the main title "activist".

That's not a good argument and you know it
It sounds however that Carmona would have an early advantage.  I did a little research and it looks like Carillo has an online following so that might help her.  She was also at Standing Rock and is active on all the important issues of our days.  She's also a good writer judging by some of her articles I found so I suspect she will be a good speaker too.
Carmona on the other hand, having worked for the Bernie campaign probably has a bigger following and since a lot of Bernie supporters are trying to find campaigns worth working for, he could probably make good use of them.  Gomez, I couldn't find anything about, even though he's an assemblyman.

We'll see who wins, but I'm glad we will have a fresh face with new ideas.  Becerra was not bad or anything, but he had been in the House forever and the Democrats need new blood.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Wikipedia has 3 but they don't have Carmona.

Wendy Carillo (Standing Rock and Fight for 15 activist and radio host)
Jimmy Gomez (state assemblyman)
Sarah Hernandez (former teacher and nonprofit leader)

They also have a Green party candidate:

Kenneth Mejia (activist) (Mejia is also a Bernie supporter)

That means 3 out of 5 candidates are vocal Bernie supporters.  I'm not sure where the other two candidates stand.

Without knowing anything about them, Gomez and Hernandez seem like the best. I don't trust candidate with the main title "activist".

That's not a good argument and you know it

You're right - I did not have much time to do research, and it intrigued me to see if my blind prediction would turn out to be even remotely accurate

[Gass3268]

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[justfollowingtheelections]

I actually did some research on the candidates, and they're all really good.  I don't think Bernie will endorse Carmona to be honest, because some of the other candidates such as Mejia or Meza also worked for the Bernie campaign.
Some comments on a few of them:
Aramayo: has worked for several nonprofits, and from speeches that I saw she looks like a very decent person.
Campoverdi: Used to work for Obama as well as the LA Times.  I believe she was also a model.  She has created some campaign videos as well.
Carmona: Worked for Bernie's campaign and is probably really well known among Bernie supporters.
Carrillo: A journalist who is also described as a super-activist.  She has made several appearances on Ana Kasparyan's show on TYT.  Supported Bernie during the primaries but I don't think she worked for his campaign.  She wrote in an article that "who we hoped Obama would be, Bernie has been all his life".
Gomez: He's actually quite a decent candidate, but I think being endorsed by Garcetti and other establishment figures will hurt his chances.
Meza: Also a Bernie supporter and a fight for 15 activist.
Wallace: She has posted some videos on her campaign website where she explains why a white girl like her is running, and she has also said that the establishment needs to stay out of the race
Mejia: He is 26 years old and was making a 6-digit salary working in Wall Street until he quit to volunteer for Bernie.  He ran against Becerra as a Green party candidate this year.

I honestly hope this becomes the future of the Democratic Party and we stop seeing hacks winning the party nomination at various races by getting the endorsements of the establishment, without anyone else getting a far chance.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Matters very little to the public, to this race, or indeed to anything but his potential performance as Congressman, but Carmona had a VERY bad rep within the parts of the Bernie campaign I was connected to...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The primaries will be held April 4 with a general election on June 6 (Assuming no one gets 50%)