If California was split into two states, would SC be a battleground state?

[Downnice]

Lets say California passes a referendum and California is split into 2 states Southern and Northern California, do you think Southern Cal would be a competive state.


Monterrey, San Benito, Fresno, and Inyo County and counties south of that would be Southern California and all counties north are Northern California.

Trump did poor in 2016 losing Orange, Riverside, and Fresno County, all counties won by Romney in 2012. Lets assume in 2016 Trump gains support being the incumbent and all those counties turn red and does what Bush did in California and Retakes San Diego, San Bernandio, Ventura and San Luis Opisdo counties, I think the GOP would win that state. However we need to take into consideration that the Latino vote is only going to get larger into California and that San Diego County has not went to the GOP since 04, but at the same time  I would presume the GOP in this scenario would campaign heavily in San Diego.

So if this were to happen in 2020 (it is %99.9 chance it does happen this is purely hypothetical) would Southern California be a battleground state, and how would it change the Electoral College?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No, though it would have been something of a swing state in the 90s.
(I think)

[Gass3268]

Personally, your dividing line is a bit too far north. The straight line with San Luis Obispo, Kern, and San Bernardino Counties is a better divide.

Either way it wouldn't be a battleground, especially with Dems getting close to 70% in Los Angeles County.

[AGA]

No, it has been trending Democratic and will likely continue to do so, especially if Republicans continue along the path of nominating Trump-esque candidates. Romney actually did not win San Bernardino County and Fresno County in 2012. Republicans would probably have better chance of winning Northern California in this scenario in the future.

[RINO Tom]

No, LA is too big, and it is too Hispanic.  However, I would be interested to see how Whites in just SC voted.  Clinton won Whites 50%-45% in California, and I would have to imagine SC Whites are much more Republican than NC Whites.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

how would this affect south carolina at all

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Not at all. If Southern California isn't more solidly democrat than Northern California already, it will be in a few years. Demographics are destiny. The "fundamental transformation of America" already took place in Southern California and it's hard to think of any way that the GOP could win there now. Even if the GOP got all those counties back, that would barely cut into the huge democrat margins coming out of Los Angeles County.

[ElectionsGuy]

Taking just the two party vote under your scenario, comparing to 2012 as well.

South California

2012

Obama: 4,712,897 (59.2%)
Romney: 3,244,992 (40.8%)

7,957,889

California about 61.9/38.1 two party split as a whole

2016

Clinton: 4,371,376 (62.5%)
Trump: 2,617,852 (37.5%)

California about 66/44 two party split as a whole

Answer: No

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What if water was purple? 

[Figueira]

Only way Romney wins SoCal is if you stretch NorCal down to Los Angeles, and even then Clinton wins in 2016.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Lets say California passes a referendum and California is split into 2 states Southern and Northern California, do you think Southern Cal would be a competive state.


Monterrey, San Benito, Fresno, and Inyo County and counties south of that would be Southern California and all counties north are Northern California.

Trump did poor in 2016 losing Orange, Riverside, and Fresno County, all counties won by Romney in 2012.

Romney lost Riverside County. It's been leaning D since 2008

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What interests me is, how would this state had behaved in the 90s? In gubernatorials, senate, etc?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What interests me is, how would this state had behaved in the 90s? In gubernatorials, senate, etc?

What about in the 2010 Senate and gubernatorial races?

[The Arizonan]

Both Californias would be safe Democratic states.

If you split the Californias into coastal California and inland California, you might get at least one battleground.

What if water was purple?  

Here's a fun fact: water is actually blue because it absorbs red light. On a cloudy day at sea, it appears a deep, dark blue.

As for the question, I can't imagine water being purple because it would have to reflect red and blue light.

[pikachu]

Assuming that the line between NorCal and SoCal was set at Kern/SLO/San Bernardino, because that makes geographical sense, it'd still be safe Dem. While it's somewhat plausible to see Republican winning Orange, SLO, Riverside, and SB again, San Diego County looks likes its pretty much lost forever, or at least would require a much better candidate (Romney lost it by 8 and Trump lost it by 17!), for Republicans to win the county, let alone get the margins needed to make up for LA. Though tbf Republicans will never get the margins to make up 30-40 point losses in LA County anyway. I ran the numbers for Bush-Kerry in SoCal, and Kerry still managed a 52-48 win, even though he lost everywhere outside of LA by 5-10 points.

What interests me is, how would this state had behaved in the 90s? In gubernatorials, senate, etc?

What about in the 2010 Senate and gubernatorial races?

It's about 54-46 in favor of the Democrats. Again, the GOP's demographic collapse with Latinos and urbanites probably makes this high-water mark for them for quite some time.

[Nyvin]

No,  Los Angeles county is still too large,  even with the dividing line cutting the Central Valley almost in half, which makes almost no sense.

If CA were divided up into two,  the straight line along San Luis, San Bernadino, and Kern would almost be the best spot, but maybe make a cut into Kern to include the entire Central Valley in 1 state.    Geographically that would make the most sense.

[Bigby]

The only beneficial California for the GOP split is Jefferson plus Bakersfield with only enough Democratic counties to combine the two areas together without turning it Democratic entirely.

[DPKdebator]

The only scenario where a plausible state split to become a battleground is if Northern California roughly corresponded with the proposed state of Jefferson.

[Young Conservative]

What if water was purple? 

[The Mikado]

If you did a coastal-inland split, then MAYBE you could have a swing state, and even then it would be lean Dem.

[Del Tachi]

If San Bernardino, Orange, Riverside, San Diego and Imperial were separated from the rest of California as "East California" it might be competitive.

Bush would have won it in 2000 and 2004, but Trump would have lost to Clinton here 52.6% to 41.9%.