Southeast and Southwest democrats strategy

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Is Jason Carter running again? Would he have a chance in the general election?

I think so. He's technocratic and supports gun rights. So he's a better fit than Hillary is. And a white man, which sounds F-ed up, but I don't think GA is ready for a black woman yet on a stewide level.

I seem to remember Jason Carter as not being very Charismatic at all... and coming across as not have that great of a natural connection to voters.  (But I'm not all that familiar with Carter.. so I could be mis-remembering)

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I think AZ senate race may not be a great indicator for AZ 2020... Trump is esp unpopular in AZ... and Jeff Flake is one of Trump biggest critics among Republican Senators.  Flake prob get a lot of votes that would never vote for Trump.

Lol that won't save him. If anything, it'll make him look weaker. People who despise Trump are almost certainly going to flock to Sinema, and I'd bet she gets a number of die-hard Trumpists who want to punish Flake for being flakey. Still a tossup. He's a pretty weak incumbent.

@NSV: That's precisely why Dems should pour resources into AZ-Sen and GA-Gov. Winning those could launch the spring-board for winning those states in 2020.

I think Flake is a strong candidate than many are suggesting... And I predict he wins by a much better margin (relatively speaking) than most will predict. Also, he has never lost an election.

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Neither was Charlie Baker, and he used a decent showing from his first run to propel him to a win. That's why I think Carter is Dems' best hope. He's a white male (yes, I know) that has name rec and isn't a hard-left ideologue.

True- I'm forgetting to think of it in terms of a Gov race vs a presidential race... Charisma, etc is far less important in Gov race (ie NC Gov Roy Cooper... among many examples)

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You seem really pessimistic, but I guess that can be healthy. If I had to predict this far out, I think Flake might be screwed, because #NeverTrump Republicans certainly won't get much support from Democrats and moderates who want to voice their anger at Trump, and he'll be simultaneously pissing off his right flank. His approval ratings are about as sh**tty as Trump's too, fwiw.

I'm usually really optimistic... for instance I think Joaquin Castro could potentially give Ted Cruz a tough fight (which most think is a stupid thought).  I think Dems could very likely pick up NV... and I think Dems running for re-election will probably end up winning. (although for some reason Bob Casey worries me a little).  

I just honestly think Jeff Flake is the type candidate that is far more secure than people think...With it being an off year election, Flake doesn't strike me a someone who would really strongly Motivate Dems to go out and vote against him... in the way Cruz might (But this is mainly more of a gut feeling... so I could end up being totally wrong)

[Virginiá]

I think over the past 2 years I've adopted the view that party coalitions, absent an aligning event, tend to evolve naturally, on their own, with only moderate guidance from the party themselves. By 2008, young people/minorities became the pillars of the Democratic coalition, while old people moved to the GOP. I believe this was inevitable, and since then, the parties reinforce these bonds by delivering policy that they believe their base wants. People say Democrats need to stop the identity politics - well, how? Millennials are receptive to these issues. Maybe there is another way but we need a leader to prove to us that another way works.

That being said, I think the Southwest/east shift is just a natural evolution of these trends. We can say we want to get WCWs back to hold the Midwest, and we may be able to do that for a while, but in all likelihood at least some of those states will slip from our grasp as we increasingly cater to new members of our coalition. I don't think Trump winning WI/MI/PA by slim margins once says anything important, and for all we know they could swing right back, but the current trend among WCWs is cause for worry at the very least.

My point is that I think there is less control here than people are thinking. We can make some changes, delay some trends maybe, hold on for a bit elsewhere, but everything suggests Democrats are swallowing up coastal states/southwest and parts of the South. We can't really change that right now, and overall it'll benefit us because most of these states we are rising in are getting House seats from states that Republicans are rising in. In terms of long-term strategy, Democrats really seem to winning out beautifully, even if short-term losses can be dizzying.

As for those white college grads/suburbanites - its worth noting that the Millennial generation will be, at least for a time, the most educated generation in history, and that seems like it would eventually make white college grads a more favorable Democratic constituency, assuming current support among white millennials holds (more or less). If anyone is worried we'll move back to the center - maybe we will, but not anytime soon. As Millennials make up more of the party and progressives continue to swallow up party power, it'll probably continue neutering the corporate wing for the forseeable future. We just have to give it time and put in proper effort.

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The idea of going heavy into the Sun Belt & giving up on the WC in the Mid-west is a sure-shot losing strategy - It has another major problem, a Senate Bloodbath with GOP piling up 55-60 seats consistently. Let us not forget, MN is the next big Mid-west state which could fall (& NH/ME in the North-East).

GA, FL, AZ - All 3 would be needed with all of HRC 2016 states to win the WH (if we are considering the rust belt is lost). Texas is not reachable in 10-15 years (with a guy like Kasich or Rubio on the GOP ticket) & in the long run we are all dead.  

Trump was an unlikely nominee who did poorly among minorities & suburban whites. A Kasich or a Rubio would do significantly better among these 2 groups than Trump. And I don't think they will lose much of Trump's white vote - They are just much better GE candidates in the Sun-Belt. Most Senators did better than Trump. Rubio won by 8% & McCain by 14% which tells us how hard it will be to win FL & AZ consistently.

There are other big advantages with Mid-west. Dems have 2 Senators from MN, 2 from MI, 1 from WI, 1 from OH, 1 PA which is 7. Dems have only 1 Senator from FL so the best case scenario (unlikely) could give 2 Senators in GA & AZ each & 1 more in FL. So, it is a very bad strategy for the battle of the Senate - Lose 7 & get 5.

While more young people coming into the voting age is an advantage, there will be some loss of voters to the GOP as they grow older & with the less tax party taking more from educated affluent people. In the end, the net gain is positive but not huge. So, in really you are dependent on hispanic vote increase for consistent wins.

The way forward IMO is to rebuild the party @ the rust belt with focus on young people, activism at the ground level, building an organization to rival Koch/Walker & focusing on key economic issues which will help them - Re-negotiating NAFTA/TPP. 15$ Min Wage, Infrastructure push, Healthcare, protecting welfare programs like SS/Medicare etc. They are natural allies with the Dems - The party of the working class & I feel to win the Electoral College & the Senate for the next 15-20 years, they are critical.