Whites in the south are uber-Republican and it would be very difficult to change that. Whites in the mountain west are mostly uber Republican. This election showed that Hispanics likely will not go the way of blacks in their voting habits.
Which means, lets think, where do whites swing the most? Which region has suburbs that has some liberal whites? Which region is most prone to economic swings? It is the midwest.
On the Presidential level, I absolutely think the midwest may trend a bit more gop and the Southwest a bit more Democratic, but conceding the entire Midwest is political suicide as far as Senate purposes. Even the House would become more difficult.
And on top of that, we can not over think last months results, but I will say it was silly to assume the upper Midwest was solid Clinton when you consider the following.
1) They were not exactly landslides for Kerry in 2004.
2) The Midwest was very receptive to Obama's message in 2008. Almost won Missouri, and he even won Indiana. It mostly stayed solid to him in 2012.
3) Republicans have done well in downballot races since 2008.
So I never got why so many thought MI, WI, PA, OH, etc would be so solid for Clinton in 2016.
One positive effect of Trump's victory is that the theory of the "blue wall" has finally been debunked. Democrats should not be complacent about the Upper Midwest just because they have Democratic streaks, especially since its states were usually won by quite narrow margins.
