Southeast and Southwest democrats strategy (user search)
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  Southeast and Southwest democrats strategy (search mode)
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Author Topic: Southeast and Southwest democrats strategy  (Read 5896 times)
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« on: December 03, 2016, 11:01:48 PM »

Democrats can definitely keep looking at states like AZ, GA, and NC, but that shouldn't be at the expense of states like MI, PA, and WI. Those states are not at all gone for Democrats, as Obama got more votes than Trump in all three (and even Romney got more votes than Trump in WI!) There are definitely voters in these states that Democrats can win back, as well as people who didn't turn out to vote this year who Democrats could win over.


Those states can be won back by having Trump super unpopular.

I do not think MI or especially WI are coming back.  PA can be won back rather easily, though.
Between the fact Trump only won MI by like 10,000 votes and we have Flint still going on it's ludicrous to say MI is gone
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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Posts: 13,401
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« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2016, 04:32:14 PM »

Think about 2009.  Would Republicans be where they are going to be in 2017 if they had given Obamacare 3/4ths bipartisan majorities in exchange for adding a few pro-market provisions and more conscience protections on birth control/abortion?  No, of course not.  Trump is already seen as the most moderate president in a generation.  Do you really think it's a winning strategy to give him overwhelming bipartisan majorities for tariffs, walls, and giant rural infrastructure projects just because those bills require union labor and send $1B to Colin Peterson's and Tim Walz's districts or to West Virginia and North Dakota?  So you rubber stamp his economic agenda so that he looks like the next Ike and then attack him for not going far enough in 2020?  Good luck winning more than 10 states!

No, I think it's time for congressional Republicans to find out that resentment is a 2 way street.  You make them pass the tariffs, trade deal repeals, infrastructure projects, etc. on a strict party line vote and then turn them into the Republican version of Obamacare.  Then it's 3-7 years of "President Trump just made all of your groceries cost twice as much so that he could deport your neighbors and build bridges to nowhere for a bunch of hicks who don't even think you should be allowed to vote.  Let's show him who's boss in 2018/20/22!"  Half of the CA/TX/FL Republican delegations would be quaking in their boots at the sight of it.  It wouldn't exactly make me feel good inside, but we've clearly seen that it works.

Well, I think Senate Democrats (especially those in red/swing/Trump states up for reelection in two years) are not as stupid as that. Or else 2018 will make 2002 look like a Democratic landslide.

Umm...no. Democrats should not cooperate with Trump at all. They should oppose him at every turn, and when the eventual recession happens, blame it all on him and the Republicans. Demographically speaking, the Democrats are in a very nice place to take advantage of this. A nice swing back among working class whites in the north, same amount of support among college educated whites and stronger turnout among minorities= 400+ EV victory (depending on if Texas flips).

Pretty much this.  They should be operating on the assumption that the 4 Romney state senators are gone and try to keep net loses at 3 or lower.  IMO, it's time to encourage Manchin and Heitkamp to take Trump admin positions so that you don't have to spend a dime on their seats.  Focus on flipping NV and AZ and making something else competitive (probably MS or TX, both of which also have seats up in 2020).  Beyond that, the senate is best conceded until 2020 and the fight taken to the House.  Turn out enough of Cleveland and Philly and use the tariffs and trade restrictions as a wedge issue with retirees in FL/AZ/PA, the energy industry, and free market types in general.

Edit: Or maybe even Manchin and Heitkamp can be saved in 2018.  After all, Mark Kirk won Obama's home state (and the 8th most Democratic state in the country) in 2010 with a national Republican platform  that Obamacare was the root of all evil. 
Yeah the country is in better shape now than 2008 which saw the closest thing to the recession so why the hell should Democrats feel obligated to be nicer than the reps were to him.
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2016, 12:09:03 AM »

Anyone who thinks Michigan, Wisconsin, and/or Pennsylvania are "gone" for Dems because Hillary lost them by narrow margins in one election is seriously overreacting. It's one election, the first time any of those three went red in nearly thirty years. It'd be like saying Indiana, NE-02, and North Carolina were forever gone for Republicans because Obama carried them in 2008. You're all overreacting.

Sure, if Dems start going full SJW, those states really will be gone, but there's no indication of that happening just yet, so let's not go too crazy here. Don't forget that all the other Republicans who tried to run on Trump's image (Carlos Beruff, Paul Nehlen) failed miserably.

Let's wait to see what direction Dems go and who they nominate for 2020 before we discuss whether three states that one Republican won one time are "gone forever". Give me a break.
Agreed I just did a thread on WI and the #'s show that Hillary under performed more than Trump won so a more popular candidate in 2020 might have a good shot at flipping these states back
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2016, 01:53:18 AM »
« Edited: December 05, 2016, 01:57:15 AM by Hindsight is 2020 »

Depends how the Democratic Party platform evolves from here.  If they go in the activist/leftist/socialist direction of many Bernie supporters, I think the Industrial Belt will continue to trend Republican, actually quite hard Republican if Trump does an even half-way decent job with the economy.  If they double down on the Clinton/Obama/Reid neoliberalism while pandering to various leftist/activist/diversity causes, I also think Republicans will continue to make gains here.  Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are full of middle/working class people who vote on the "kitchen table" issues.  Common-sense people who, while not particularly religious/moralist, are a long ways from being as pozzed as many voters on the coasts.  Bernie's plans to renegotiate trade policies may have stolen some of Trump's thunder in this region, however the highly confrontational identity politics and various diversity/SJW nonsense of many of his followers repels this demographic.  Bernie Sanders actually did make economic fairness the central message of his campaign, but reigning in some of his most vile young supporters is another thing.  A reformed Democratic platform that focuses on common-sense center-left economic policies as a common denominator while taking some of the confrontation identity political stuff off the table could certainly keep this region well in play for Democrats.

As for the Sunbelt, I'm not as familiar with the region, but I doubt there's enough suburban soccer moms to turn these states Blue.  The hispanic vote projections are over-baked, best-case-scenario, assuming immigration rates stay (or go back to?) where they were a decade ago, and new hispanic voters vote overwhelmingly Democratic.  Neither of these have proven to be true.  Legal and Illegal immigration from Latin America is in decline, and studies show that as hispanics assimilate into America (e.g. English becomes first language in family household), they become much more open to voting Republican.  
Yeah Bernie and the dems are the ones with a vile "race politics" issue /s
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