Southeast and Southwest democrats strategy

[jamestroll]

Whites in the south are uber-Republican and it would be very difficult to change that. Whites in the mountain west are mostly uber Republican. This election showed that Hispanics likely will not go the way of blacks in their voting habits.

Which means, lets think, where do whites swing the most? Which region has suburbs that has some liberal whites? Which region is most prone to economic swings? It is the midwest.

On the Presidential level, I absolutely think the midwest may trend a bit more gop and the Southwest a bit more Democratic, but conceding the entire Midwest is political suicide as far as Senate purposes. Even the House would become more difficult.

And on top of that, we can not over think last months results, but I will say it was silly to assume the upper Midwest was solid Clinton when you consider the following.

1) They were not exactly landslides for Kerry in 2004.

2) The Midwest was very receptive to Obama's message in 2008. Almost won Missouri, and he even won Indiana. It mostly stayed solid to him in 2012.

3) Republicans have done well in downballot races since 2008.

So I never got why so many thought MI, WI, PA, OH, etc would be so solid for Clinton in 2016.

[jamestroll]

Exactly.

I will say that if we have a recession in 2018, Democrats could well be on their way to blowing out the GOP in Senatorial contests in the region. It will not win us the Senate, but it will help keep us at the levels we are on now.

These whites in the Midwest, including MO and IN, will likely never go the way of deep south whites in voting 80 to 90% GOP. At least in some races there will be swings, and there is not as much racial polarization in those states.

Also, outside of MO and IN, whites in the Midwest tend not to be very socially conservative. Sure, they do not  have the views that Vermont whites have, but they are not religious zealots either.

But this blue wall, lmao! So funny in hindsight. Just look at the 04 and 12 results. Obama won OH, IA, MN, WI, and MI with a majority vote but they were still weak margins for a candidate very much in tuned with the region.

[jamestroll]

I mean, the next Democratic Presidential victory that is a healthy win, I expect Democrats to win Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and perhaps Arizona based on demographics.

But as far as Senate and House purposes, I would really not want to concede the entire Midwest. All those states, even the most Republican of them, Missouri, has a Democratic base. They should not be written off up and down the ballot.

Trump's campaign was exceptionally tailor made for the midwest! Please do not forget that!

Clinton barely lifted a finger in those states.