How much more Republican can Mississippi get?

[Cashew]

Was the Republican trend mainly because whites became more Republican, or lower black turnout?

[RINO Tom]

I don't think it can.  If Democrats even got MS Whites to vote like KY or WV Whites - both states they got smoked in - they'd win the state handily...

[I’m not Stu]

I think that even Republicans like John Hoeven (R-ND), Sanford Kahn (R-CA), Dean Heller (R-NV), Larry Hogan (R-MD), and Bruce Rauner (R-IL) would get smoked in Mississippi.

[BaldEagle1991]

Mississippi is basically a smaller version of Texas. So it can.

[Young Conservative]

Mississippi is basically a smaller version of Texas. So it can.

Was that a joke.....

[Figueira]

Maybe if a lot of white people start moving into Mississippi for some reason, it could get more Republican.

[GlobeSoc]

Maybe if a lot of white people start moving into Mississippi for some reason, it could get more Republican.

It seems that the only politically significant migrations of white people is the Latte Liberal Legion. If anything, a significant migration of white people there would make it more democratic.

[gespb19]

Black turnout was way down this year in MS. Looking at precinct results, a 15-20% decrease sounds about right.

[ElectionsGuy]

Not much.

[OneJ]

Black turnout was way down this year in MS. Looking at precinct results, a 15-20% decrease sounds about right.

This. There was a big drop-off between Obama 2012 and Hillary 2016 (562,000 vs. 485,000). Even Trump barely got 700,000 votes here (less than Romney). So whites didn't necessarily become more Republican, but turnout was way down in Mississippi.

Therefore, this state can't get much more Republican, especially with the seemingly dwindling White population and the obviously growing Minority population.

[nclib]

Was the Republican trend mainly because whites became more Republican, or lower black turnout?

Actually, the strongest swings in MS were in NE MS where by MS standards there are fewer blacks and more white Dems.

MS was more Republican in 2004 than 2016, so there is room.

[hopper]

Black turnout was way down this year in MS. Looking at precinct results, a 15-20% decrease sounds about right.

This. There was a big drop-off between Obama 2012 and Hillary 2016 (562,000 vs. 485,000). Even Trump barely got 700,000 votes here (less than Romney). So whites didn't necessarily become more Republican, but turnout was way down in Mississippi.

Therefore, this state can't get much more Republican, especially with the seemingly dwindling White population and the obviously growing Minority population.

Your Half Right:

The Black Population make up of MS in 2010 is the same as it was in 1970(37%.)

The White Population of MS in 1970 made up 63% of the states population and in 2010 Whites made up 58% of the states population.

[gespb19]

I'm skeptical that Mississippi's demographics will change dramatically in the way that a state like GA or NC might.

Mississippi has a very low Hispanic population, the few that do live here live in mostly rural areas where the poultry industry dominates (like Scott County where many Mexican immigrants have been brought in to work on the local chicken farms. Jones County as well). Most young black people that have the means to get out, will/do. Same goes for a lot of educated left of center whites in MS. They grow up here, go to college here, then leave (I will very likely be in this boat in a few years).

So unless Jackson takes off (a la Atlanta), or Oxford, Starkville, or Hattiesburg becomes some sort of Research Triangle type area, don't expect the state to be purple anytime soon.

[hopper]

Black turnout was way down this year in MS. Looking at precinct results, a 15-20% decrease sounds about right.

This. There was a big drop-off between Obama 2012 and Hillary 2016 (562,000 vs. 485,000). Even Trump barely got 700,000 votes here (less than Romney). So whites didn't necessarily become more Republican, but turnout was way down in Mississippi.

Therefore, this state can't get much more Republican, especially with the seemingly dwindling White population and the obviously growing Minority population.

Your Half Right:

The Black Population make up of MS in 2010 is the same as it was in 1970(37%.)

The White Population of MS in 1970 made up 63% of the states population and in 2010 Whites made up 58% of the states population.

There have been studies on numbers like this.  Basically people who check off "other" are a combination of black, hispanic, and mixed-race.  So I bet the black population is slightly higher than that number.

Yeah but "other" doesn't necessarily mean you are put into one ethnic/race group like "Black, White, or Hispanic".

[OneJ]

There is strong evidence that Mississippi's swing is largely the result of voter suppression measures: No other state saw anything close to the drop in turnout that occurred in Mississippi, turnout declined most in majority-black counties (15% in some that I've looked at - despite relatively small swings in the actual margin), and every attempt to model the election's results that I have seen shows Clinton's vote share under-performing dramatically in the state relative to what demographics and other conditions predict.

I suspect that it would be telling to compare turnout percentages and changes in turnout in Mississippi's majority black counties to majority-black counties in neighboring states.

I thought it could be this too. MS was one of the states with new laws in an effort to suppress certain groups from turning out effective starting this year. A decline like the one Mississippi experienced does look somewhat suspicious.

http://www.brennancenter.org/voting-restrictions-first-time-2016

[gespb19]

Yes. Turnout dropped 20-25 (some even close to 30%) in many heavily-black precincts in Jackson, Hattiesburg, Greenville, etc.