Alaska 2016

[cinyc]

Alaska made its results official earlier in the week.  This will serve as a repository for Alaska 2016 maps and results discussion.

First, a map of the 2016 Presidential results by Alaska County Equivalents.  While the election day result is reported by precinct, the absentee, early and questioned votes are only reported by House District.  I allocated the absentee, early and questioned votes by multiplying the total number of votes of the type in the HD by the percentage of election day votes reported in that part of the House District.  I think this is the method Lewis Trondheim used when calculating the 2012 results, but he can confirm that.  The only county equivalent that flipped by allocating the election day, early and questioned votes this way was Yakutat in the Southeast (Click for a larger image from the gallery):



Note that the unlabeled county equivalent on the west coast is Bristol Bay.  The unlabeled county equivalent in the Southeastern panhandle is the gold rush port of Seward.  Also, the Wade Hampton Census Area is now called the Kusilvak Census Area.  Wade Hampton was a slave-owning confederate civil war general who had no connection to Alaska.  The area was renamed for a mountain range in the area.

For comparison's sake, here is the 2012 map, and a map of the swing from 2012 to 2016:




In general, the Native Alaskan-heavy areas of bush Alaska, which swung heavily to Obama in 2012, swung to Trump in 2016.  Anchorage and Fairbanks-North Star Borough swung slightly Clinton, as did Skagway, Southeast Fairbanks, Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island.  Haines in Southeast Alaska swung heavily Clinton.

More to come.

[ottermax]

This confirms that Clinton did quite poorly among Native voters across the country. Was turnout down or did these voters switch to Trump?

[cinyc]

This confirms that Clinton did quite poorly among Native voters across the country. Was turnout down or did these voters switch to Trump?

I haven't crunched the 2012 numbers myself (as I said, they're courtesy of Lewis Trondheim from last cycle, and he provided actual percentages, not votes), but eyeballing the rural House Districts 37-40, turnout appears to have been mixed in the bush - slightly up in some HDs and down in others.  I'll confirm when I crunch the 2012 numbers.  Eventually I want to do an ED vote swing map by County Equivalent for comparison.

Unfortunately, the HD boundaries changed from 2012 to 2016 due to court-ordered redistricting, so the HD numbers from the two years aren't an exact comparison.  Nevertheless, I'm going to try to make a final precinct and HD map this weekend.  I'm also going to post Senate and House race maps in this thread so we have all 2016 Alaska maps in one place.  I'll probably cross-post on the Senate forum, which is usually frowned upon, but putting all the Alaska maps in one place makes sense since they're not in the Atlas and are hard to find anywhere.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Do you have all the results in a spreadsheet? 

[AGA]

The only county equivalent that flipped by allocating the election day, early and questioned votes this way was Yakutat in the Southeast

Didn't Haines flip as well, according to your map?

[cinyc]

The only county equivalent that flipped by allocating the election day, early and questioned votes this way was Yakutat in the Southeast

Didn't Haines flip as well, according to your map?

It flipped from 2012 to 2016, but that's not what I'm talking about.  Clinton won both the 2016 Haines Election Day and 2016 total election day plus absentee/early/questioned allocated vote.  Granted, the election day vote was closer (and, for Haines, probably more accurate, as I'm not sure that there were many non-election day votes from Haines, as the absentee/early/questioned vote in that HD was probably very Juneau-centric), but she did win both.

Do you have all the results in a spreadsheet?  

Of course.  Check your PMs.

I got sidetracked on this project.  Hopefully, I'll find time to put up more maps on or before this weekend.

[Sumner 1868]

The Fairbanks swing toward Clinton is surprising. It's not really an affluent area.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm very upset that AK didn't continue its recent trajectory; prior to this election, it was the only state to have swung Democratic in the past 3 elections. However, its swing to Trump this time was statistically insignificant (0.74 points), and especially so when compared to its swing to Democrats in the previous three elections (7.54 in 2012, 4.02 in 2008 & 5.40 in 2004).