Monkey Cage: Donald Trump did not win 34% of Latino vote in Texas.

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/02/donald-trump-did-not-win-34-of-latino-vote-in-texas-he-won-much-less/?utm_term=.bf676afddd94

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I'm beginning to wonder of what use are exit polls at all, and what are the true numbers for all demographics? As The Upshot (and this year's polls?) showed, WCWs were also be underrepresented and thus throwing off polls.

It never really made sense to me that Trump would do better among Hispanic voters, so now I have to wonder. It's not like there isn't a precedent with exit polls being off about support among this demographic. 2004 and 2012 saw similar issues.

So if this is true, Trump indeed did notably worse than Romney among Hispanics overall. Thoughts?



*yes I shortened original title so I could put "monkey cage" in as my intense love for primates took control of my motor functions

[Virginiá]

And what about Florida? Exit polls show that Hillary won 62% agaisnt 35% to Trump. Do they also add up?

I'm not sure. This article doesn't talk about Florida. However, even in the EPs, Clinton did do better than Obama with FL Hispanics, and confirmed a continuing realignment of FL Hispanic voters since at least 2006-2008. I would assume that if so many exit polls got it wrong in other states, there is a good chance it did in Florida as well.

[Virginiá]

Doubtful. Texas would have been much closer had Trump lost the Latino vote by such a wide margin. And he also would have lost Florida. Keep in mind that Latino Decisions is a left-leaning advocacy group.

So what do you think of the article's analysis then? This article specifically talked about Texas, Arizona and Nevada, not Florida. Also, the basis for this article's claim isn't formed around Latino Decision's poll. He said he was skeptical of the exit polls based on LD's polls but that was prior to this separate look at individual precincts.

[Virginiá]

@jimrtex  ty. that was the kind of opinion I was looking for.

I agree with jimrtex observations. A study that puts Hidalgo in the small category looks suspect. Hidalgo is the seventh largest pop in TX and is larger than El Paso, which is in the large category. Also the study relies on ecological inference, which is not a simple methodology and one needs to take care to account for changing demographics over time among other things to get it right. If the study doesn't understand the size of the counties I would subject it to added scrutiny.

Do you think it's possible to verify the exit polls at all along the parameters of this study? Or is it an inadequate method even with better implementation?