Monkey Cage: Donald Trump did not win 34% of Latino vote in Texas. (user search)
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  Monkey Cage: Donald Trump did not win 34% of Latino vote in Texas. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Monkey Cage: Donald Trump did not win 34% of Latino vote in Texas.  (Read 2779 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,990
Canada
« on: December 03, 2016, 03:20:57 AM »
« edited: December 03, 2016, 03:24:51 AM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

There's no way that Trump won 34% of the Latino vote in Texas and I'm not sure why Republicans are keen on arguing against this. Shouldn't you guys be happy that you can win national elections without feigning concern for immigrants and their spawn?

"Higher income, or more integrated Hispanic voters would be more likely to vote for Trump, and may have been carelessly excluded from the study."

There's a clear positive correlation between income/education and a swing against Trump in California among Latinos. As far as I can tell, it's working class Tejanos, Mexican-Americans and Hispanos who swung towards Trump, which makes sense considering that border patrol agents, ICE employees and cops in southern Texas are Latino.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2016, 07:04:46 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2016, 07:11:23 AM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

There's no way that Trump won 34% of the Latino vote in Texas and I'm not sure why Republicans are keen on arguing against this. Shouldn't you guys be happy that you can win national elections without feigning concern for immigrants and their spawn?
Did you read the article in the Washington Post?

Did you download the data set that they provided?

Why aren't you guys be out ... (whatever)?

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"In rural counties, Clinton won an estimated 77 percent of the Latino vote against 19 percent for Trump."

They treated Webb, Presidio, Starr, Hidalgo, Zapata, Potter as rural counties.

Look at the swing in South Texas.

This study purported to be by a doctoral candidate at UCLA. It was junior high level incompetent. If you are in junior high, no personal insult intended.

I don't understand why this matters. If the objective is to estimate the Latino vote as a whole, this type of error is totally irrelevant and has no bearing on the outcome of the study. Is it comically absurd? Yes, of course, but I wouldn't underestimate the difficult of gathering such a large data set; this is a very labor-intensive, time-intensive process and I know because I've conducted studies myself. It took me a very long time to gather the data. I'm mostly happy that someone did this.

Anyways, no, I have not downloaded the data set but I have looked at precinct results. Considering the huge turnout spikes in poorer immigrant-heavy neighborhoods, which tend to be located in larger metropolitan areas like Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and El Paso, even though there wasn't much of a swing towards Clinton, the changing nature of the Latino vote itself ought to have resulted in a pretty sizable swing towards Clinton. Tendency seems to be: larger swing towards Clinton among more affluent, assimilated Latinos in major cities; slight swing to no swing among poorer Latinos who speak Spanish. I haven't seen data around Brownsville or McAllen so I can't say much about that but I've trawled through precinct maps of Travis County, Harris County and El Paso County. These are the tendencies I noticed.

I still maintain that the desire to defend the exit poll makes sense: you don't need us now. You can stop pretending to care about Latinos!
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2016, 05:32:19 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2016, 05:54:52 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Yes, of course, but I wouldn't underestimate the difficult of gathering such a large data set; this is a very labor-intensive, time-intensive process and I know because I've conducted studies myself. It took me a very long time to gather the data. I'm mostly happy that someone did this.
"Francisco I. Pedraza is assistant professor of political science and public policy at the University of California at Riverside. Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta is a political science PhD student at the University of California at Los Angeles. Additional graphs are available."

Pedraza has a PhD from University of Washington and Wilcox-Archuleta is a doctoral candidate at UCLA. UW and UCLA are reputable schools. This is in their field of supposed expertise. Their article is crap.

Are you familiar with the expression "soft bigotry of low expectations"?

Uh, this isn't an academic publication, it is a study for an organization that's probably a side-project for these people.

Unless you have a critique of the estimation itself, what you're doing is nitpicky and childish. I fail to see how their categorization of counties matters. It's totally irrelevant to the goal of this study, which is to estimate how Latinos in Texas voted in 2016.

Further, unless you're a social scientist, this sort of criticism smacks of a dilettante perspective. It's actually very difficult to gather precinct data for many localities, which probably explains the, as you described it, "truncated" nature of the data. Maybe they didn't use Travis County data because, as everyone knows, Travis County Latino neighborhoods are gentrifying/morphing at a rapid clip. Have you thought about emailing the people who conducted the study to ask them about their decisions/choices? This might literally boil down to "we used this population cut-off to categorize a county" and "we could not match this Census data to these precincts" or "we lacked the time to do this and were under a deadline".

Just so we're clear, my argument is that these people are academics who conducted a very time-intensive project within the span of one month as they were fufilling other obligations, including working on dissertations or teaching classes etc. This wasn't for an academic journal, it was an independent project. So yeah, my expectations are pretty low. The nature of this type of work demands, what, at least 3 months? I'm not going to snipe at people for messing up on such short notice.

edit: introducing many explanatory variables in social scientific research, particularly w/r/t voting behavior is a fraught process because there are multicollinearity problems that are difficult to address in a satisfying manner. Black % is going to correlate with ultra-Latino precincts and poor/immigrant precincts. Income is going to correlate with assimilation. I know this because I've actually tried to do this sort of analysis and it doesn't really work. I assume that there are statistical techniques that can finesse these issues (I don't know them because I am an undergrad) but, really, there's no way to get around these problems. This is social science. Statistics isn't an oracle, it can only point to tendencies and make very broad estimates that are up for dispute because there are assumptions involved.

a further addition: it appears that statisticians do not think that partial multicollinearity is much of a problem arguing that it might only make estimates "more ambiguous" but, considering that social science deals with the magnitude of effects and wants to produce fairly precise estimates, this is actually very important.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2016, 05:41:12 PM »

The argument that the total number of votes Clinton received in heavy Latino districts exceed that of Obama 2012 means that the share of the Latino vote for Clinton in TX must be higher misses several key facts.

1) Total eligible voters in TX increased 8.8% from 2012 to 2016
2) Turnout in 2016 is higher (51.6%) than 2012 (49.2)

It is also possible and in fact likely that the share of the Latino vote in TX was higher in 2016 than in 2012.  So it is totally possible for the Clinton share of the Latino vote in TX decreased from Obama 2012 while the total number of Latino votes increased from 2012 Obama.

That's obviously a possibility but the data doesn't really point to this!
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