Monkey Cage: Donald Trump did not win 34% of Latino vote in Texas.

[hopper]

Maybe the % of the Latino Vote that Trump won is halfway between the exit polls(34% Trump)(Edison Research) and Latino Decisions result of 18% of Latino's that voted for Trump in Texas which would be a total of 25-26% of the Latino Vote that Trump won in Texas. Just throwing it out there...

[hopper]

There's no way that Trump won 34% of the Latino vote in Texas and I'm not sure why Republicans are keen on arguing against this. Shouldn't you guys be happy that you can win national elections without feigning concern for immigrants and their spawn?

I still maintain that the desire to defend the exit poll makes sense: you don't need us now. You can stop pretending to care about Latinos!

I'm sure Latino's have their complaints about the Democrat Party too as well as the Republican Party.

[hopper]

Doubtful. Texas would have been much closer had Trump lost the Latino vote by such a wide margin. And he also would have lost Florida. Keep in mind that Latino Decisions is a left-leaning advocacy group.

No I don't buy the Latino Decisions is a left-leaning advocacy group argument. They just oversample Hispanics in high dense area's.

[hopper]

Regardless, I think the results of this election show it's not comparing apples to apples when you look at Latino-specific polling and comparing it to last election's exit polls.  If Latino Decisions' polling was on the money (and it's not clear that it was), it also probably means Romney did a lot worse among Hispanics than we thought.

2012 Latino Decisions(The Latino Vote Nationally)-Obama 75%, Romney 23%

2012 Edison Research: Obama 71%, Romney 27%

So a difference of 8% point difference between Edison Research and Latino Decisions in 2012.

[hopper]

Let me write some data from the site "538"(courtesy ABC News, Census Bureau) where Hillary underperformed Obama in 90% Latino Counties in TX(I think.)

Starr: 96% Latino(VAP)

2012(Margin of victory) Obama +73% 2016: Hillary +60%

Maverick: 95% Latino(VAP)

2012:  Obama +58%, 2016: Hillary +55%

Webb: 95% Latino(VAP)

2012: Obama +54%, 2016: Hillary +52%

Zavala: 93% Latino(VAP)

2012: Obama: +68%, 2016: Hillary +57%

Zapata: 93% Latino(VAP)

2012: Obama +43% 2016: Hillary +33

Jim Hogg: 91% Latino(VAP)

Hillary and Obama both here by 57% points.

The Census Bureau does match up well with "The Latino Decesions" data match up well in counties like Starr, Zavala, Jim Hogg, and Maverick. Latino Turnout did go up by 10% points in Jim Hogg and 6% in Maverick  from 2012 in these counties but Trump gained ground still from Romney.

[hopper]

Here's the stats for Hidalgo and El Paso Counties(per Atlas)(US Survey Quickfacts 2015 Hispanic % of county overall:)

Hidalgo: 28% Trump(91% Hispanic)
El Paso: 26% Trump(81% Hispanic)
Cameron County: 32% Trump(89% Hispanic)

Latino Decisions(I added Trump Vote Totals and divided by the number of precincts:)(% of Hispanic was added and divided by average of precincts.)

Hidalgo County: 17% Trump (14 precincts sampled)(96% Hispanic)
El Paso: 14% Trump(2 precincts)(96% Hispanic)
Cameron County: 16% Trump(5 precincts)(95% Hispanic)

I might post other things on this thread later.

[hopper]

Latino decisions been at it for a while now.  See

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2010/11/15/proving-the-exit-polls-wrong-harry-reid-did-win-over-90-of-the-latino-vote/

Where they argued that exit polls showing Sharron Angle in 2010 NV Senate race won around 30% of the Latino vote are wrong that that her share of the Latino vote was in the single digits.

Not saying they are wrong but clearly this is an organization with an agenda of increasing the relative power of Latino interests within the Dem party arguing that the Latino share of the Dem vote is higher than what exit polls imply and with it the relative clout of Latino pressure groups in Dem power structure should increase as well.

If they are right then of course then GOP share of white vote is even larger than the exit poll suggest.

Doesn't the last chart predict that if a precinct were over 60% Hispanic that Reid would receive over 100% of the vote?

Reid did get close to 100% in precincts with almost no Hispanics. So they had to be in North Las Vegas.
And it appears that we could get a much better fit with a second degree fit.

Latino Decisions had a couple 70% Hispanic Precincts(#4415, and #4650) in North Las Vegas going only 7%-8% for Trump and one 87% North Las Vegas Hispanic Prescient(#4585) going 22% for Trump. Of course the 22% is just an outlier but a 87% Hispanic Prescient  going for 3X more for Trump than a 70% Hispanic Prescient? Trump's best North Las Vegas Prescient other than the one that he got 22% of the vote was one where he got 17% of the vote which was a 82% Hispanic Prescient(#4550.)

[hopper]

Latino decisions been at it for a while now.  See

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2010/11/15/proving-the-exit-polls-wrong-harry-reid-did-win-over-90-of-the-latino-vote/

Where they argued that exit polls showing Sharron Angle in 2010 NV Senate race won around 30% of the Latino vote are wrong that that her share of the Latino vote was in the single digits.

Not saying they are wrong but clearly this is an organization with an agenda of increasing the relative power of Latino interests within the Dem party arguing that the Latino share of the Dem vote is higher than what exit polls imply and with it the relative clout of Latino pressure groups in Dem power structure should increase as well.

If they are right then of course then GOP share of white vote is even larger than the exit poll suggest.

Doesn't the last chart predict that if a precinct were over 60% Hispanic that Reid would receive over 100% of the vote?

Reid did get close to 100% in precincts with almost no Hispanics. So they had to be in North Las Vegas.
And it appears that we could get a much better fit with a second degree fit.

Latino Decisions had a couple 70% Hispanic Precincts(#4415, and #4650) in North Las Vegas going only 7%-8% for Trump and one 87% North Las Vegas Hispanic Prescient(#4585) going 22% for Trump. Of course the 22% is just an outlier but a 87% Hispanic Prescient  going for 3X more for Trump than a 70% Hispanic Prescient? Trump's best North Las Vegas Prescient other than the one that he got 22% of the vote was one where he got 17% of the vote which was a 82% Hispanic Prescient(#4550.)

Whatever the exact percentage is, doesn't it concern you that your party is losing this community by overwhelming margins and it hasn't improved substantially in years.  It is only a matter of time before they are 20% of the electorate.  It's only a matter of time until Asians are 5 or 6% of the electorate.  Blacks are 12-13% of the electorate.  Is the Republican gameplan just to win 90% of the White vote?  Because that's definitely not happening.

There is nothing you can do but take one election at a time. I think your party got distracted thinking demography is destiny and were(the Dems) gonna string a Presidential Election Winning Streak along. Look what happened the Dems lost. My advice for your party(since I want a functional 2 party that works) is to take one election at a time and don't run Hillary again! I voted 3rd party because both Trump and Hillary I don't take a liking to either of them.