Crystal Ball Rating Changes

[Brittain33]

I still don't see the need to keep Texas as not safe.

IDK Texas rn is what a Likely R state would look like. A bunch of factors involved here, most would point to Cruz winning, but there is a nonzero (if small) chance of a D pickup. Cruz will probably win. That's a Likely R if I've ever seen one

The fact that Texas' Voter ID law was just thrown through the window by the courts widens that nonzero chance, as well.

Texas is now R+8.
By comparison, Arizona is R+5, Ohio is R+3, so is North Carolina.
On the other side, Indiana and Missouri are R+9.

If it were any Republican other than Cruz, it should be Safe R. The fact he's picked up a credible, well-funded D challenge who is very likely to lose based on Texas's partisanship makes Likely R the safest bet. It probably goes to Safe R in 2018.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I would put Florida as likely D but otherwise this map seems pretty accurate. Very pleased by the progress Sinema is making in Arizona!

[Orser67]

Looks about right, though I'm a little more confident for Dems in OH, MO, IN, and especially FL and WI.

[Meatball Ron]

I'd put PA as Lean D -- Casey certainly has an advantage, but I think his position resembles that of Baldwin/Brown/Nelson much more so than that of Stabenow or Kaine. Especially since he'll have a moderately credible opponent.

[TheSaint250]

I would put Florida as likely D but otherwise this map seems pretty accurate. Very pleased by the progress Sinema is making in Arizona!

In regards to Florida, I feel like keeping it at lean D is fine for now only because we don't have good polls in yet and we don't know how much Rick Scott will put in to win the race.

In regards to AZ, it's less that Sinema is making progress than it is an emerging GOP bloodbath.