PA-Sen: Barletta is running
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  PA-Sen: Barletta is running
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Author Topic: PA-Sen: Barletta is running  (Read 11488 times)
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #75 on: February 07, 2017, 06:18:03 PM »

I've changed my list of most electable people:
1. Mike Fitzpatrick
2. Ryan Costello
3. Charlie Dent
4. Jim Cawley
5. Jake Corman
6. Mary Beth Buchanan

I would've put Dent at one or two tbh.

I disagree.  A pro-choice nominee will lose more social conservative votes than they would gain from suburban moderates, relative to an inoffensive pro-lifer like Costello or Fitzpatrick.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #76 on: February 07, 2017, 06:50:27 PM »

I've changed my list of most electable people:
1. Mike Fitzpatrick
2. Ryan Costello
3. Charlie Dent
4. Jim Cawley
5. Jake Corman
6. Mary Beth Buchanan

I would've put Dent at one or two tbh.

I disagree.  A pro-choice nominee will lose more social conservative votes than they would gain from suburban moderates, relative to an inoffensive pro-lifer like Costello or Fitzpatrick.
True, I see your point.
Dent, despite voting for making the Hyde Amendment permanent, voted against defunding PP, and against the Pain Capable act (or whatever it's called). If Trump lost, Dent would have been of the right wing of the party to win, but he would probably isn't going to work too well with Trump, and he would get annihilated by Casey in Northeast and Southwest Pennsylvania. It's also no guarantee he'd do well in the Philly Suburbs, where someone like Costello or Fitzpatrick would probably stop the bleeding. Also, Casey might make the prospect of Lehigh County controlling both of PA's Senate seats an issue in the campaign. Dent isn't that good, I would love to see Mike Fitzpatrick run as wave insurance.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #77 on: February 12, 2017, 12:00:00 AM »

Rick Saccone is in
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #78 on: February 12, 2017, 12:02:59 AM »

Barely above a some-dude. Even if Republicans totally whiff on recruitment there will be stronger candidates
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #79 on: February 12, 2017, 12:24:35 AM »

Barely above a some-dude. Even if Republicans totally whiff on recruitment there will be stronger candidates
Looked him up and he seems to be a religious right-type guy. Not a good candidate, someone else will probably run as well and beat him.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #80 on: May 03, 2017, 01:02:06 PM »

"Urged on by Trump, Barletta eyes US Senate run against Casey"

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http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-pa-lou-barletta-bob-casey-senate-20170503-story.html
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #81 on: May 03, 2017, 01:02:41 PM »

I hope Lou runs! He'd be a top 5 senator!
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #82 on: May 03, 2017, 01:04:44 PM »

Also this is from last month, but State Rep. Jim Christiana (R) is also running.

http://www.politicspa.com/christiana-jumps-into-u-s-senate-race/82518/
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #83 on: May 03, 2017, 06:17:30 PM »

I hope Lou runs! He'd be a top 5 senator!

I hope he runs too; he'd get slaughtered in the general and we'd finally have him out of Congress (hopefully for good).
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #84 on: May 05, 2017, 02:54:30 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2017, 03:03:16 AM by People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee »

There are many lists in this thread of the most electable people that do not include Jim Gerlach.


Remember he was elected in 2002, won reelection in 2004 despite Kerry winning his district 51-48. He went into 2006 cycle as the most endangered Republican in the state, if not the country and pulled through in district that Casey probably got >60% of the vote in. He went into 2008 likewise and even though 20 more Republican seats bit the dust, Gerlach's was not one of them despite Obama winning 57% of the vote in the district the same night.

Gerlachs seat was gerrymandered as hell. But it was done in such a way that meant he had a diverse district that still voted for Gore, Kerry and Obama, largely because of the Quioxitic belief that PA-13 was still winnable. A district that had both high end suburbs in Montco and rust belt areas in Berks. He had high end and low end swing voters. Voters that are considered part of the SE and voters that are considered more like those in the T. College educated and non-college educated whites. And he won election after election in district that mirrored (2004) and then was more Democratic than the state as a whole (2008), in two horrible election cycles.

If you want someone who can bridge the Trump voter with the voters that Trump left on the table (Clinton/Toomey voters in Chester and Bucks for instance), someone who is a tough and dogged campaigner and someone with an electoral history that if I am sitting asking myself how do I take down a legend like the Casey name, number 1 on my list is Gerlach.

I can see Gerlach getting Bucks by 2-4, Chester by 2 and Dauphin by 2-4, 60% in Berks and tying Casey in the Lehigh Valley. That is some pretty tough math for Casey on its own. Add to that, Gerlach is someone who can go into Luzerne and Lackawanna and give Casey a run for his money on issues where Casey is vulnerable. The Casey Democrats already abandoned Casey in SW PA to a guy like Smith and he was a train wreck.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #85 on: May 05, 2017, 03:24:32 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2017, 03:41:48 AM by People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee »

Lou Barletta would be the strongest challenger, IMO: He can keep a lot of Trump voters who usually vote Dem, and would probably hold decent in the suburbs since he comes across as inoffensive. Tim Murphy would be my second choice, being from the Southwest part of the state. If neither run, then Mike Fitzpatrick would also be solid, he's out of office so he can focus on the campaign full-time.

Casey would wipe the floor with Barletta.  The man is hardly inoffensive and has a history of being an anti-immigration nut IIRC.  In any case, you guys aren't beating Casey, especially not in a Trump midterm.
I know there are much better targets, but my point is Barletta is the type of Republican who'd be popular in historically-D areas that went for Trump. He just screams "America First" all over him.

Barletta would get absolutely annihilated in the Philly suburbs; he'd lose by far more than Trump there.  And Casey's pretty popular with the voters you say Barletta would appeal to (I highly doubt that Barletta would have any crossover appeal, tbh).

One issue that Toomey highlighted a lot late in the campaign, was opposing Philadelphia's sanctuary city status and he won Bucks and Chester despite doing that. We get into this notion that these suburbs are these neoliberal hotbeds, who support all things moderate. We forget that when Republicans dominated the suburbs, it was the era of railing against busing and weak on crime Democrats. What Democrats refer to as dog whistle politics, to less than overt (sometimes overt) racism on the part of Northern White suburbanites in the 1970's and 1980's. These are types of people that get those 58% and above polls saying they oppose sanctuary cities. That said, Toomey did express openness about a path in 2013 and he said he opposed it because it didn't have "enough" legal immigration, which ironically in my analysis, what has always killed these bills has been those provisions dealing with legal immigration going foward. Enforcement, off the charts. Path, off the charts. Massive increases in immigration going forward, a bridge too far. Toomey managed to get to the right message on this to get enough Trump votes and a little beyond, to win.

Perhaps Barletta's immigration views are bit too far in the conservative direction for that Toomey vote in the suburbs, but once thing is for sure and that is that Casey is completely out of step with the "Casey Democrats" on immigration and that is partially why Trump got 46% in Lackawanna, County.

Many moderate Dems took pro-enforcement stances, in favor of securing the border. Paul Kanjorski even signed a discharge petition to get Heath Schuler's Save Act on the floor of the house in 2007, as did Altmire and a few others. I will remind you that was an enforcement only bill with no path to citizenship co-wrote by a conservative pro-life Dem (Schuler) and a moderate pro-choice Republican (Brian Bilbray). One of the main reasons that Kanjo did so, was because he was scared out of his wits of Lou Barletta challenging him and Barletta almost knocked him off IN 2008!!!  There are a lot of small towns in Luzerne and precincts in Wilkes-Barre where registered Democrats will vote for Barletta over Casey.

And if you think it is impossible that Casey loses Luzerne and Erie and under-performs in his home county, Casey already lost that portion of the Casey Democrats that was in SW PA, as I mentioned in a previous post. He crushed Santorum in 2006 in those areas, only to lose them in 2012 to a complete train wreck of a GOP candidate who made a similar comment to Akin and Mourdock.

Also one last note about the Philly suburbs, the train ride is over. They have not been the PVI Deciders for PA since the mid 2000's. In 2010, those were Bucks, Nothampton, Monroe and Luzerne. Only one of those is in the Philly Burbs and it is the least College educated of the 4. Now it is probably Bucks, Northampton, and Dauphin counties.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #86 on: May 05, 2017, 07:57:19 AM »

Costello would probably be the strongest candidate, followed by Dent.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #87 on: May 05, 2017, 09:14:45 AM »

Costello would probably be the strongest candidate, followed by Dent.
I'd say:
1. Costello
2. M. Fitzpatrick
3. Meehan (if he pulls a Gardner)
4. T. Murphy
5. Barletta?

Dent is overrated. He's from the wrong part of the state, and won't be able to pick up the populist support Trump got, and is pretty socially liberal. I think Casey should dispatch him pretty easily.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #88 on: May 05, 2017, 11:17:00 AM »

Costello would probably be the strongest candidate, followed by Dent.
I'd say:
1. Costello
2. M. Fitzpatrick
3. Meehan (if he pulls a Gardner)
4. T. Murphy
5. Barletta?

Dent is overrated. He's from the wrong part of the state, and won't be able to pick up the populist support Trump got, and is pretty socially liberal. I think Casey should dispatch him pretty easily.

I am sorry but this part is objectively false.

The Lehigh Valley almost always mirrors the statewide result. Dent has flaws yes, but being from the wrong region is not one of them.

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #89 on: May 05, 2017, 11:22:23 AM »

Costello would probably be the strongest candidate, followed by Dent.

Costello has never faced a tough race before. He has not won in a 2006 or a 2008 in a 57% Obama district.

I am not saying he is a weak candidate, he probably should be on the list. But I wouldn't put him as number 1.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #90 on: May 05, 2017, 01:14:16 PM »

Costello would probably be the strongest candidate, followed by Dent.
I'd say:
1. Costello
2. M. Fitzpatrick
3. Meehan (if he pulls a Gardner)
4. T. Murphy
5. Barletta?

Dent is overrated. He's from the wrong part of the state, and won't be able to pick up the populist support Trump got, and is pretty socially liberal. I think Casey should dispatch him pretty easily.

I am sorry but this part is objectively false.

The Lehigh Valley almost always mirrors the statewide result. Dent has flaws yes, but being from the wrong region is not one of them.


Sorry, I worded it poorly.
The first three are from the Philly Burbs, and that helps as they should "stop the bleeding".
Toomey, the Class 3 Senator, is also from Lehigh. The fourth and fifth are from districts that contain at least some historically-D territory, and Barletta did really well for a Republican in the old PA-11, and was pretty popular in Hazelton. Maybe it's just me, but I prefer geographic diversity between the two senators of large states, rather than one county controlling both seats. Maybe some Pennsylvanians agree, but perhaps I'm overstating this.
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« Reply #91 on: May 05, 2017, 04:51:18 PM »

Costello would probably be the strongest candidate, followed by Dent.

Costello has never faced a tough race before. He has not won in a 2006 or a 2008 in a 57% Obama district.

I am not saying he is a weak candidate, he probably should be on the list. But I wouldn't put him as number 1.

Costello's district is just like R+2 or something, but he's probably a pretty good fit for it.  Anyway, Dent is not a strong candidate because the pro-life vote is very influential in PA, and for every "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" vote he picks up in Lower Merion or Radnor, he will lose two votes to his nominally pro-life Democratic opponent.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #92 on: May 06, 2017, 02:28:03 AM »

Costello would probably be the strongest candidate, followed by Dent.
I'd say:
1. Costello
2. M. Fitzpatrick
3. Meehan (if he pulls a Gardner)
4. T. Murphy
5. Barletta?

Dent is overrated. He's from the wrong part of the state, and won't be able to pick up the populist support Trump got, and is pretty socially liberal. I think Casey should dispatch him pretty easily.

I am sorry but this part is objectively false.

The Lehigh Valley almost always mirrors the statewide result. Dent has flaws yes, but being from the wrong region is not one of them.


Sorry, I worded it poorly.
The first three are from the Philly Burbs, and that helps as they should "stop the bleeding".
Toomey, the Class 3 Senator, is also from Lehigh. The fourth and fifth are from districts that contain at least some historically-D territory, and Barletta did really well for a Republican in the old PA-11, and was pretty popular in Hazelton. Maybe it's just me, but I prefer geographic diversity between the two senators of large states, rather than one county controlling both seats. Maybe some Pennsylvanians agree, but perhaps I'm overstating this.

I agree with the diversity question and my personal preference would be someone from the western part of the state.

But in terms of electability, anyone from the Eastern Region, stretching from Philly to the Scranton area is theoretically, "from the right region of the state".
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #93 on: May 06, 2017, 02:52:23 AM »

Costello would probably be the strongest candidate, followed by Dent.

Costello has never faced a tough race before. He has not won in a 2006 or a 2008 in a 57% Obama district.

I am not saying he is a weak candidate, he probably should be on the list. But I wouldn't put him as number 1.

Costello's district is just like R+2 or something, but he's probably a pretty good fit for it.  Anyway, Dent is not a strong candidate because the pro-life vote is very influential in PA, and for every "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" vote he picks up in Lower Merion or Radnor, he will lose two votes to his nominally pro-life Democratic opponent.

Yes, but the worst headwinds he had to face was Clinton winning it by like .5%  Toomey probably won it by like 3 or 4.

Under the previous lines, Gerlach had to contend with Casey winning over 60% in 2006 and Obama getting almost 60 in 2008.

If you want to take down Casey, in a midterm, then you need someone who has the history of being able to run against the tide and win.

Also I am pretty sure that Gerlach is pro-life, at least overall. Keystone Phil once said he was. He took some more moderate stances on stem cells, the environment and gay rights though.

On the other hand, Gerlach has a score close to Toomey on immigration:
Toomey, Patrick (Sen.) R - PA 83%
Gerlach, Jim (Rep. - 6th) R - PA 77%

Costello's is closer to Casey's:
Costello, Ryan (Rep. - 6th) R - PA 31%
Casey, Robert (Sen.) D - PA 12%

Pro-life voters are important, but you are never going to dislodge Casey, without wedging him apart from the "Casey Democrats" on Immigration and Trade in NE PA and Costello is too much of an open borders Republican to pull that off. And he isn't socially liberal enough to replace them by winning Montco or something.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #94 on: July 06, 2017, 03:47:41 PM »

Barletta says he will make a decision in the next couple of weeks.

http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/2017/07/barletta_will_make_up_his_mind.html
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« Reply #95 on: July 06, 2017, 10:21:41 PM »

I really cannot see how Casey can possibly lose this election. It's during a Trump midterm and he's from a family of beloved Pennsylvania legends. I just don't think the PA Trump vote will be there in 2018 especially if the nominee is Barletta.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #96 on: July 24, 2017, 02:50:27 PM »

Barletta now says he hopes to make a decision by Labor Day (9/4).

http://m.thetimes-tribune.com/opinion/barletta-shakes-trees-perhaps-prospectively-1.2221741
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #97 on: August 25, 2017, 02:20:49 PM »

Jonathan Tamari‏ @JonathanTamari
Lou Barletta is expected to launch his PA Senate campaign next week, per 2 PA Republican sources. Long expected.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/900870268092108800
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